NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of NXP Semiconductors NV stock $133, price $265, that is 49.8% below the price, quality 65 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Keep an eye on it?Free in your watchlist: 5 stocks without an account, 10 with oneYes, for free
TechnologyUS · Based in Netherlands · ISIN NL0009538784
NSBroad dataNov 3, 2026
NXP Semiconductors NV
NXPI · US
Solid,but very expensive
Our calculation puts a fair price 50% below what the stock costs today.
Quality 65/100
Highly profitable · 23.4% net margin (TTM)
Generates free cash flow
1.5% dividend yield · Well covered
Ranks above peers(10/14)
Broad data
Last quarter vs. a year ago: revenue +19%, profit +40%.
Moderate debt
Wide moat83/100 · thin data
Insiders sold $1.9M (6M)
Fair value $133.13 · Strongly overvalued (−49.8%)
Weak Growth(revenue 3y −2.4 %/yr in USD)
⟳ Cyclical
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Limited data center AI exposure vs peers🚩Heavy automotive and China market dependence
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $128.22 – $330.06 · fair‑value band $78.96 – $198.14 · the $265.01 price screens above the $133.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
Follow NXP Semiconductors in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether NXP Semiconductors is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
NXP Semiconductors N.V. provides semiconductor products in the United States, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, the Netherlands, Mainland China, Hong Kong, and internationally.
Show moreShow less
The company's product portfolio includes microcontrollers; application processors; communication processors; wireless connectivity solutions, such as near field communications, ultra-wideband, Bluetooth low-energy, Zigbee, Thread, and Wi-Fi and Wi-Fi/Bluetooth integrated SoCs; analog and interface products; radio frequency devices, and security controllers, as well as semiconductor-based environmental and inertial sensors, including pressure, inertial, magnetic, and gyroscopic sensors.
Its products are used in various applications, including automotive, industrial and Internet of Things, mobile, and communication infrastructure. The company markets its products to direct sales offices and independent distributors.
NXP Semiconductors N.V. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Eindhoven, the Netherlands.
Stock analysis
NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) currently trades at $265.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $133.13, 50% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $224.51 per share, and 1 of the 23 models we run sit above the $265.01 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $44.81, and 22 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $78.96 (bear) to $198.14 (bull), the price of $265.01 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
NXP Semiconductors NV reported revenue of $12.3B in FY2025 versus $11.1B in FY2021, a compound +2.6%/yr. Reported net income was $2.0B in FY2025, compounding +1.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $67.3B Large · P/E ratio 20.9 · P/S ratio 4.88 · EPS (TTM) $12.71 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 23.4% · Return on equity 28.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 83 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −50%, NXPI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$78.96Fair Value $133.13Bull$198.14
Price $265.01 · Downside -49.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($7.33 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $1.9M and none bought.
SaleChristopher L JensenEVP, Chief People Officer4× since Dec 3, 2025: 11,977 shares, avg. $246.60$3.0MOct 1, 2026
SaleAndrew MicallefEVP, Chief Operations Officer4× since Dec 15, 2025: 4,000 shares, avg. $241.74$966,970Sep 15, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleAndrew HardyEVP, Chief Sales Officer5,289 shares at $235.00$1.2MApr 23, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJennifer WuamettEVP & General Counsel12,425 shares at $220.94$2.7MJan 2, 202610b5-1 plan
BuyJulie SouthernDirector225 shares at $225.48$50,733Dec 3, 2025
SaleWilliam BetzEVP & CFO7,299 shares at $201.93$1.5MNov 13, 2025
Plus 15 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.2% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.9%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+55.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+53.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 56.4% / 13.9%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 27%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+22.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +20.1% a year for the price and +8.8% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: NXP's strength is its established automotive segment combined with a new fab for physical AI in edge and industrial devices, while its main weak point remains the very small data center exposure.
Main risk: Rivals such as NVIDIA, Qualcomm and AMD with stronger data center AI positions could capture more growth in AI infrastructure while NXP remains heavily tied to automotive semiconductors where Chinese suppliers are also gaining ground.
Bull case: By successfully scaling its physical AI and edge solutions in automotive and industrial applications NXP could offset limited data center exposure and defend or grow its automotive share despite China headwinds.
Bear case: If peers with stronger data center positions pull ahead and China automotive demand stays weak or faces sharper inventory corrections NXP's revenue growth could lag and margins in its dominant segment could remain under sustained pressure.
NXP is opening a new Singapore fab focused on mature 40-130nm processes to support trusted physical AI in edge and industrial devices. Its automotive segment still drives over half of revenue amid soft demand, while data center sales stay a small fraction of the total. Will the physical AI strategy generate enough growth to offset the limited hyperscale exposure, or will peers with stronger data center positions keep pulling ahead?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductors · 372 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Above median
Fair Value upside−49.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)28.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)23.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)32.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)19.3% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.09× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)20.9× · Cheaper than median
P/B6.69× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)4.88× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow29.5× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA13.9× · Cheaper than median
PEG0.53× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)97· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)45· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)31· sector 20
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $133.13 versus a price of $265.01, about 50% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NXPI?
Our model-based fair value for NXP Semiconductors NV is $133.13 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $265.01.
What is the quality score of NXPI?
NXP Semiconductors NV has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $133.13 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $78.96, optimistic scenario $198.14. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NXP Semiconductors NV stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $133.13, about 50% lower versus a price of $265.01 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $78.96, optimistic scenario $198.14. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI)?
NXP Semiconductors NV reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $13.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does NXP Semiconductors NV pay a dividend?
NXP Semiconductors NV currently shows a dividend yield of 1.53% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, NXP Semiconductors NV would have to grow free cash flow by +22.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.3 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NXPI use?
Our models discount NXP Semiconductors NV at 11.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.81, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For NXP Semiconductors NV that is +22.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at NXP Semiconductors NV grew +7.3 % a year. The price currently implies +22.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into NXP Semiconductors NV (+22.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.39 %: that much free cash flow NXP Semiconductors NV produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NXP Semiconductors NV it is $133.13 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of $265.01. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NXP Semiconductors NV stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, NXPI trades above its calculated fair value: price $265.01, fair value $133.13, a gap of about −50% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NXPI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($265.01); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($133.13). For NXP Semiconductors NV the two are $131.88 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NXP Semiconductors NV worth?
The market values NXP Semiconductors NV at about $67.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is $265.01; our models calculate a fair value of $133.13 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NXPI?
Our models span a range for NXP Semiconductors NV: cautious scenario $78.96, base $133.13, optimistic $198.14 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price $265.01). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NXPI?
NXP Semiconductors NV trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.9 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $133.13 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 29.9 (reported for FY2025: 33.3). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 7 of the years ex one-offs: 29.0. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 6.7, P/S 4.9, EV/EBITDA 13.9.
What is the PEG ratio of NXPI?
The PEG ratio of NXP Semiconductors NV is 0.53 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI)?
Balance-sheet figures for NXP Semiconductors NV (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 28.7%, debt of 1.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NXPI from its 52-week high?
NXP Semiconductors NV trades at $265.01, about 20% below its 52-week high of $330.06 and 46% above the low of $180.99 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $133.13 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NXP Semiconductors NV?
From the same area (Technology) we also value NVIDIA Corporation, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Broadcom Inc, Micron Technology, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NXP Semiconductors NV stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price $265.01, calculated fair value $133.13 (−50%), Quality Score 65/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NXPI calculated?
We run NXP Semiconductors NV through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $133.13, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. NXP Semiconductors NV itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $265.01. Our model-based fair value is $133.13, about 50% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NXP Semiconductors NV right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($198.14). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($78.96 to $198.14) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) come from?
Earnings per share at NXP Semiconductors NV grew +9.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.1 %, EBIT margin +0.5 %, tax rate −2.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of NXP Semiconductors NV
How large is the market capitalisation of NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI)?
The market capitalisation of NXP Semiconductors NV is $67.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NXP Semiconductors NV is 4.88 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI)?
Earnings per share at NXP Semiconductors NV are $12.71 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI)?
The dividend yield of NXP Semiconductors NV is 1.5% (payout 28.6%, on adjusted earnings, reported 31.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI)?
The net margin of NXP Semiconductors NV is 23.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NXP Semiconductors NV is 28.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NXP Semiconductors NV is 14.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI)?
The operating margin of NXP Semiconductors NV is 32.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI)?
Revenue at NXP Semiconductors NV is growing +19.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI)?
Earnings per share at NXP Semiconductors NV are growing +40.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) carry?
The net debt of NXP Semiconductors NV is $9.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch NXP Semiconductors NV in the live analysis
One click puts NXP Semiconductors NV on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Broad data
Nov 3, 2026