NXP Semiconductors N.V (NXPI) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $68.3B
NXP Semiconductors N.V
NXPI · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from $103.77 to $103.42 (−0.3%) since Jul 17, 2026. Share price −15.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 55% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($150.33). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($62.13 to $150.33) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $128.80 – $331.55 · fair‑value band $62.13 – $150.33 · the $231.78 price screens above the $103.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
NXP Semiconductors N.V (NXPI) currently trades at $231.78, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $103.42, implying the stock looks roughly 55.4% overvalued today. We read business quality at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, NXP Semiconductors N.V generated revenue of $12.6B at a net margin of 21.0%. Revenue grew 12.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 25.8%. Net debt stands at $9.0B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $62.13 (bear case) to $150.33 (bull case); at $231.78, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -62% fair-value upside, at -55%, NXPI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($133.10) versus Asset-Based ($26.69). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
NXP Semiconductors N.V. provides semiconductor products in the United States, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, the Netherlands, Mainland China, Hong Kong, and internationally.
Full company description
NXP Semiconductors N.V. provides semiconductor products in the United States, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, the Netherlands, Mainland China, Hong Kong, and internationally. The company's product portfolio includes microcontrollers; application processors; communication processors; wireless connectivity solutions, such as near field communications, ultra-wideband, Bluetooth low-energy, Zigbee, Thread, and Wi-Fi and Wi-Fi/Bluetooth integrated SoCs; analog and interface products; radio frequency devices, and security controllers, as well as semiconductor-based environmental and inertial sensors, including pressure, inertial, magnetic, and gyroscopic sensors. Its products are used in various applications, including automotive, industrial and Internet of Things, mobile, and communication infrastructure. The company markets its products to direct sales offices and independent distributors. NXP Semiconductors N.V. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Eindhoven, the Netherlands.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
NXP Semiconductors N.V reported revenue of $12.3B in FY2025 versus $11.1B in FY2021, a compound +2.6%/yr. Reported net income was $2.0B in FY2025, compounding +1.9%/yr from FY2021.
NXPI screens 55% overvalued. Compare with NVIDIA Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Ambarella reportedly in talks to be acquired by NXP Semiconductors, shares spike
- Ambarella jumps on report NXP Semiconductors in talks to purchase
- NXPI Q2 Deep Dive: Broad-Based Revenue Growth and Strong Guidance Across All End Markets
Peer Group
Semiconductors · 319 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Semiconductors stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA Corporation NVDA | $211.80 | $96.91 | -54% |
| Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company TSM | $398.37 | $207.49 | -48% |
| Broadcom Inc 1AVGO | €323.25 | €121.25 | -62% |
| Micron Technology, Inc ZMIC | C$52.57 | C$7.50 | -86% |
| SK hynix Inc 000660 | 2,082,000 KRW | 1,109,311 KRW | -47% |
| Advanced Micro Devices, Inc 1AMD | €464.70 | €56.33 | -88% |
| Intel Corporation INTC | C$68.40 | C$9.82 | -86% |
| Texas Instruments Incorporated TXN | $311.46 | $59.75 | -81% |
| MediaTek Inc 2454 | 3,740 TWD | 1,163 TWD | -69% |
| SK Square Co 402340 | 1,212,000 KRW | 868,000 KRW | -28% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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