One Gas Inc (OGS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of One Gas Inc stock $49.10, price $80.92, that is 39.3% below the price, quality 41 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 15 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $52.16 – $89.14 · fair‑value band $42.99 – $59.18 · the $80.92 price screens above the $49.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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ONE Gas, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a regulated natural gas distribution utility company in the United States. The company offers natural gas distribution services.
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As of December 31, 2025, it owned 43,200 miles of distribution pipelines and 2,200 miles of transmission pipelines. The company serves approximately 2.3 million residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, and wholesale customers in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas.
ONE Gas, Inc. was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
Stock analysis
One Gas Inc (OGS) currently trades at $80.92, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $49.10, 39% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $63.59 per share, and 1 of the 15 models we run sit above the $80.92 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $32.49, and 14 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $42.99 (bear) to $59.18 (bull), the price of $80.92 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
One Gas Inc reported revenue of $2.4B in FY2025 versus $1.8B in FY2021, a compound +7.6%/yr. Reported net income was $264M in FY2025, compounding +6.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $5.1B Mid · P/E ratio 17.4 · P/S ratio 2.21 · EPS (TTM) $4.65 · Dividend yield 3.3% · Net margin 12.5% · Return on equity 8.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.5% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −39%, OGS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$42.99Fair Value $49.10Bull$59.18
Price $80.92 · Downside -39.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.67 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
SaleEduardo A RodriguezDirector850 shares at $86.34$73,389Mar 6, 2026
SaleBrian F. BrumfieldOfficer1,000 shares at $86.44$86,440Feb 24, 2026
SaleMichael G HutchinsonDirector3,000 shares at $78.86$236,580Dec 4, 2025
Plus 7 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.57/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+6.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.3.5% vs 6.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → 19%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (89 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Regulated gas distribution delivers stable cash flows from approved rates as main strength, yet limited moat beyond franchise and negative free cash flow mark the key weakness.
Main risk: Texas regulatory uncertainty threatens future allowed returns on the rate base and would constrain earnings growth.
ONE Gas runs a regulated natural gas distribution network in Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas. Higher-for-longer interest rates lift the cost of capital while Texas regulatory uncertainty clouds future allowed returns on the rate base. Will the utility's stable cash flows from approved rates fully absorb these pressures or will they constrain earnings growth more than the traditional model implies?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Gas · 107 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−39.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.6% · Above median
Return on assets2.8% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)12.5% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)19.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−2.9% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.69× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)17.4× · Pricier than median
P/B1.49× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)2.21× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA9.5× · Pricier than median
PEG4.19× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 31
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 16
PAST (return on equity)34· sector 34
HEALTH (low debt)66· sector 82
DIVIDEND (yield)67· sector 69
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "One Gas Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OGS
Frequently asked questions
Is One Gas Inc (OGS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $49.10 versus a price of $80.92, about 39% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OGS?
Our model-based fair value for One Gas Inc is $49.10 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $80.92.
What is the quality score of OGS?
One Gas Inc has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for One Gas Inc (OGS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $49.10 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $42.99, optimistic scenario $59.18. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the One Gas Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $49.10, about 39% lower versus a price of $80.92 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $42.99, optimistic scenario $59.18. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of One Gas Inc (OGS)?
One Gas Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does One Gas Inc pay a dividend?
One Gas Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 3.34% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
How much is the dividend of One Gas Inc (OGS) and when is the ex-dividend date?
One Gas Inc pays a dividend of $2.70 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.3%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 17, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2014. The payout ratio is 58.1% of earnings. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of One Gas Inc (OGS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For One Gas Inc it is $49.10 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $80.92. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is One Gas Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, OGS trades above its calculated fair value: price $80.92, fair value $49.10, a gap of about −39% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OGS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($80.92); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($49.10). For One Gas Inc the two are $31.82 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is One Gas Inc worth?
The market values One Gas Inc at about $5.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $80.92; our models calculate a fair value of $49.10 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OGS?
Our models span a range for One Gas Inc: cautious scenario $42.99, base $49.10, optimistic $59.18 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $80.92). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OGS?
One Gas Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.4 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $49.10 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 20.5. Other multiples: PEG 4.2, P/B 1.5, P/S 2.2, EV/EBITDA 9.5.
What is the PEG ratio of OGS?
The PEG ratio of One Gas Inc is 4.19 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of One Gas Inc (OGS)?
Balance-sheet figures for One Gas Inc (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 8.6%, debt of 0.69 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OGS from its 52-week high?
One Gas Inc trades at $80.92, about 9% below its 52-week high of $89.14 and 13% above the low of $71.66 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $49.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to One Gas Inc?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Naturgy Energy Group, Atmos Energy Corporation, Snam S.p.A, NiSource Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is One Gas Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $80.92, calculated fair value $49.10 (−39%), Quality Score 41/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OGS calculated?
We run One Gas Inc through 15 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $49.10 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. One Gas Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of One Gas Inc (OGS)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $80.92. Our model-based fair value is $49.10, about 39% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with One Gas Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($59.18). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Where does the earnings growth of One Gas Inc (OGS) come from?
Earnings per share at One Gas Inc grew +6.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.1 %, EBIT margin +1.5 %, tax rate +3.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of One Gas Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of One Gas Inc (OGS)?
The market capitalisation of One Gas Inc is $5.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of One Gas Inc (OGS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of One Gas Inc is 2.21 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of One Gas Inc (OGS)?
Earnings per share at One Gas Inc are $4.65 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of One Gas Inc (OGS)?
The dividend yield of One Gas Inc is 3.3% (payout 58.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of One Gas Inc (OGS)?
The net margin of One Gas Inc is 12.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of One Gas Inc (OGS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of One Gas Inc is 8.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of One Gas Inc (OGS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of One Gas Inc is 4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of One Gas Inc (OGS)?
The operating margin of One Gas Inc is 19.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at One Gas Inc (OGS)?
Revenue at One Gas Inc is growing −2.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at One Gas Inc (OGS)?
Earnings per share at One Gas Inc are growing +39.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does One Gas Inc (OGS) generate?
The free cash flow of One Gas Inc is −$128M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does One Gas Inc (OGS) carry?
The net debt of One Gas Inc is $3.4B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026