ONE Gas, Inc (OGS) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · US · Market cap $5.0B
ONE Gas, Inc
OGS · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Share price +2.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 23% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- Our model range runs from $46.01 (bear) to $79.95 (bull), base $61.50. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 40/100 (below-average quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $52.60 – $89.89 · fair‑value band $46.01 – $79.95 · the $80.22 price screens above the $61.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
ONE Gas, Inc (OGS) currently trades at $80.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $61.50, implying the stock looks roughly 23.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, ONE Gas, Inc generated revenue of $2.3B at a net margin of 11.8%. Revenue declined 11.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.2%. Net debt stands at $3.4B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $46.01 (bear case) to $79.95 (bull case); at $80.22, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -19% fair-value upside, at -23%, OGS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($71.57) versus Earnings-Based ($30.12). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
ONE Gas, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a regulated natural gas distribution utility company in the United States. The company offers natural gas distribution services. As of December 31, 2025, it owned 43,200 miles of distribution pipelines and 2,200 miles of transmission pipelines.
Full company description
ONE Gas, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a regulated natural gas distribution utility company in the United States. The company offers natural gas distribution services. As of December 31, 2025, it owned 43,200 miles of distribution pipelines and 2,200 miles of transmission pipelines. The company serves approximately 2.3 million residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, and wholesale customers in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas. ONE Gas, Inc. was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
ONE Gas, Inc reported revenue of $2.4B in FY2025 versus $1.8B in FY2021, a compound +7.6%/yr. Reported net income was $264M in FY2025, compounding +6.4%/yr from FY2021.
OGS screens 23% overvalued. Compare with Naturgy Energy Group →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- ONE Gas Inc (OGS) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: EPS Soars 52% on Regulatory Wins and ...
- OGS Q2 Earnings Surpass Estimates on Higher Rates, Sales Decline
Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Gas · 104 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naturgy Energy Group NTGY | €28.84 | €35.80 | +24% |
| Atmos Energy Corporation ATO | $177.68 | $85.67 | -52% |
| NiSource Inc NI | $47.07 | $28.59 | -39% |
| Uniper SE UN0 | €42.80 | €49.13 | +15% |
| The Hong Kong and China Gas Company 0003 | HK$7.03 | HK$5.08 | -28% |
| Italgas S.p.A IG | €9.98 | €8.11 | -19% |
| GAIL (India) Limited GAIL | ₹171.71 | ₹147.74 | -14% |
| Adani Total Gas Limited ATGL | ₹723.90 | ₹101.36 | -86% |
| ENN Natural Gas Co 600803 | ¥17.30 | ¥25.71 | +49% |
| UGI Corporation UGI | $35.84 | $27.13 | -24% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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