Pegasystems Inc (PEGA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Pegasystems Inc stock $46.52, price $32.40, upside +43.6%, quality 83 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $15.02 – $70.15 · fair‑value band $29.64 – $72.11 · the $32.40 price screens below the $46.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Pegasystems Inc. develops, markets, licenses, hosts, and supports enterprise software in the United States, rest of the Americas, the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific.
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It provides Pega Infinity, a software portfolio comprising of Pega Customer Decision Hub, a real-time AI-powered decision engine, which can predict a customer's behavior and recommend the next best action to take across channels in real-time; Pega Customer Service to anticipate customer needs, connect customers to people and systems, and automate customer interactions to evolve the customer service experience, as well as to allow enterprises to deliver interactions across channels and enhance employee productivity; and Pega Platform, a software for AI-powered workflow automation for increasing the efficiency of clients' processes and operational workflows.
The company also offers Situational Layer Cake that organizes logic into layers that map to the unique dimensions of a client's business, such as customer types, lines of business, geographies, etc.; Pega GenAI Blueprint to rapidly prototype and accelerate the development and deployment of applications; Pega Cloud that allows clients to develop, test, and deploy applications; Pega Catalyst, which helps clients to transform and prototype their customer journeys; Pega Academy, which offers enablement content for Pega product implementations, such as instructor-led and online training to its employees, clients, and partners; and global service assurance and client support services.
It primarily markets its software and services to financial services, healthcare, communications and media, government, insurance, manufacturing and high tech, and consumer industries through a direct sales force, as well as partnerships with technology providers and application developers.
Pegasystems Inc. was incorporated in 1983 and is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts.
Stock analysis
Pegasystems Inc (PEGA) currently trades at $32.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $46.52, implying the stock looks roughly 30% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $55.47 per share, and 16 of the 26 models we run sit above the $32.40 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $18.96, and 10 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $29.64 (bear) to $72.11 (bull), the price of $32.40 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 83/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Pegasystems Inc reported revenue of $1.7B in FY2025 versus $1.2B in FY2021, a compound +9.6%/yr. Reported net income was $393M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $5.7B Mid · P/E ratio 20.0 · P/S ratio 3.25 · EPS (TTM) $1.62 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 16.9% · Return on equity 51.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.9% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 73 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 44%, PEGA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$29.64Fair Value $46.52Bull$72.11
Price $32.40 · Upside +43.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.36 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 5 officers or directors sold shares worth $3.2M and none bought.
SaleKenneth StillwellCOO, CFO9× since Dec 5, 2025: 129,671 shares, avg. $42.23$5.5MNov 4, 2026
SaleDianne LedinghamDirector3× since Sep 15, 2026: 3,000 shares, avg. $35.39$106,180Nov 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleLarry WeberDirector2,974 shares at $33.71$100,254Oct 29, 2026
SaleRifat Kerim AkgonulChief Product Officer9× since Dec 8, 2025: 55,311 shares, avg. $41.35$2.3MOct 28, 2026
SaleEfstathios A KouninisSVP, Chief Accounting Officer7× since Mar 17, 2026: 8,027 shares, avg. $36.37$291,969Sep 16, 2026
SaleLeon TreflerChief of Clients and Markets6,700 shares at $44.76$299,892Mar 10, 2026
SaleAlan TreflerC.E.O. & Chairman, Director, 10% owner3× since Dec 17, 2025: 209,672 shares, avg. $52.61$11.0MFeb 18, 202610b5-1 plan
Plus 37 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.94/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.8% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+33.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+33.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−14% → 15%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.7% a year for the price and +4.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Financial metrics show solid profitability as the main strength, while limited public qualitative signals constrain moat assessment across most factors as the key weakness.
Main risk: Powerful new AI models that automate tasks from plain instructions could make Pegasystems specialised low-code workflow and decisioning platforms obsolete for enterprise customers.
Bull case: Pegasystems could leverage its governance-focused orchestration layer and outcome-based pricing to integrate rather than compete with generative AI, retaining customers in regulated industries seeking predictable workflows.
Bear case: If agentic AI models commoditise low-code platforms and the Appian litigation results in major payouts, Pegasystems enterprise workflow tools could lose relevance and strain its financial resources.
Pegasystems just added conversational AI to its Launchpad platform so teams can design and update complex enterprise applications in natural language while preserving governance and security. This comes as broader AI models raise questions about execution risks and sales cycles in the sector. Our models see it as undervalued. Will the new assistant accelerate adoption of its workflow tools or accelerate pressure from simpler AI alternatives?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 628 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score83 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+43.6% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)51.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets24.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)16.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)8.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)3.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.63× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)20.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B7.21× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)3.25× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)11.6× · Cheaper than median
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Pegasystems Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PEGA
Frequently asked questions
Is Pegasystems Inc (PEGA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $46.52 versus a price of $32.40, about +44% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of PEGA?
Our model-based fair value for Pegasystems Inc is $46.52 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $32.40.
What is the quality score of PEGA?
Pegasystems Inc has a Quality Score of 83/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Pegasystems Inc (PEGA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $46.52 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $29.64, optimistic scenario $72.11. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Pegasystems Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $46.52, about +44% upside versus a price of $32.40 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $29.64, optimistic scenario $72.11. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Pegasystems Inc (PEGA)?
Pegasystems Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Pegasystems Inc pay a dividend?
Pegasystems Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.09% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Pegasystems Inc (PEGA) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Pegasystems Inc pays a dividend of $0.03 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.1%. The last ex-dividend date was Oct 1, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2006. The payout ratio is 1.9% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 99.49 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Pegasystems Inc (PEGA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Pegasystems Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +0.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.4 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PEGA use?
Our models discount Pegasystems Inc at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.89, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Pegasystems Inc that is +0.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Pegasystems Inc (PEGA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Pegasystems Inc grew +11.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +0.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Pegasystems Inc (PEGA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Pegasystems Inc (+0.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Pegasystems Inc (PEGA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.64 %: that much free cash flow Pegasystems Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Pegasystems Inc (PEGA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Pegasystems Inc it is $46.52 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $32.40. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Pegasystems Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, PEGA trades below its calculated fair value: price $32.40, fair value $46.52, a gap of about +44% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PEGA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($32.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($46.52). For Pegasystems Inc the two are $14.12 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Pegasystems Inc worth?
The market values Pegasystems Inc at about $5.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $32.40; our models calculate a fair value of $46.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PEGA?
Our models span a range for Pegasystems Inc: cautious scenario $29.64, base $46.52, optimistic $72.11 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $32.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PEGA?
Pegasystems Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.0 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $46.52 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.0, P/B 7.2, P/S 3.2, EV/EBITDA 26.2.
What is the PEG ratio of PEGA?
The PEG ratio of Pegasystems Inc is 2.99 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Pegasystems Inc (PEGA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Pegasystems Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 51.5%, debt of 0.63 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 83/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PEGA from its 52-week high?
Pegasystems Inc trades at $32.40, about 48% below its 52-week high of $62.28 and 25% above the low of $25.90 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $46.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Pegasystems Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Salesforce, Inc, Shopify Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Pegasystems Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $32.40, calculated fair value $46.52 (+44%), Quality Score 83/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PEGA calculated?
We run Pegasystems Inc through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $46.52 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Pegasystems Inc currently trades 30% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Pegasystems Inc (PEGA)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $32.40. Our model-based fair value is $46.52, about +44% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Pegasystems Inc right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (83/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. A fairly wide model range ($29.64 to $72.11) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Pegasystems Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Pegasystems Inc (PEGA)?
The market capitalisation of Pegasystems Inc is $5.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Pegasystems Inc (PEGA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Pegasystems Inc is 3.25 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Pegasystems Inc (PEGA)?
Earnings per share at Pegasystems Inc are $1.62 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Pegasystems Inc (PEGA)?
The dividend yield of Pegasystems Inc is 0.1% (payout 1.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Pegasystems Inc (PEGA)?
The net margin of Pegasystems Inc is 16.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Pegasystems Inc (PEGA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Pegasystems Inc is 51.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Pegasystems Inc (PEGA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Pegasystems Inc is 2.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Pegasystems Inc (PEGA)?
The operating margin of Pegasystems Inc is 8.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Pegasystems Inc (PEGA)?
Revenue at Pegasystems Inc is growing +3.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Pegasystems Inc (PEGA)?
Earnings per share at Pegasystems Inc are growing −66.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Pegasystems Inc (PEGA) hold?
Pegasystems Inc holds more cash than debt, $136M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026