Pegasystems Inc (PEGA) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · US · Market cap $5.1B

A strong business, screening 23% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

• A fairly wide model range ($24.74 to $58.66) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
• Our model range runs from $24.74 (bear) to $58.66 (bull), base $40.34. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
• Quality 75/100 (high quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $15.08 – $70.40 · fair‑value band $24.74 – $58.66 · the $32.74 price screens below the $40.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

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Analysis

Pegasystems Inc (PEGA) currently trades at $32.74, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $40.34, implying the stock looks roughly 23.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Pegasystems Inc generated revenue of $1.7B at a net margin of 20.0%. Revenue declined 9.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 51.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $136M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $24.74 (bear case) to $58.66 (bull case); at $32.74, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at 23%, PEGA screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($45.12) versus Dividend Discount ($1.40). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Pegasystems Inc. develops, markets, licenses, hosts, and supports enterprise software in the United States, rest of the Americas, the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific.

Full company description

Pegasystems Inc. develops, markets, licenses, hosts, and supports enterprise software in the United States, rest of the Americas, the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. It provides Pega Infinity, a software portfolio comprising of Pega Customer Decision Hub, a real-time AI-powered decision engine, which can predict a customer's behavior and recommend the next best action to take across channels in real-time; Pega Customer Service to anticipate customer needs, connect customers to people and systems, and automate customer interactions to evolve the customer service experience, as well as to allow enterprises to deliver interactions across channels and enhance employee productivity; and Pega Platform, a software for AI-powered workflow automation for increasing the efficiency of clients' processes and operational workflows. The company also offers Situational Layer Cake that organizes logic into layers that map to the unique dimensions of a client's business, such as customer types, lines of business, geographies, etc.; Pega GenAI Blueprint to rapidly prototype and accelerate the development and deployment of applications; Pega Cloud that allows clients to develop, test, and deploy applications; Pega Catalyst, which helps clients to transform and prototype their customer journeys; Pega Academy, which offers enablement content for Pega product implementations, such as instructor-led and online training to its employees, clients, and partners; and global service assurance and client support services. It primarily markets its software and services to financial services, healthcare, communications and media, government, insurance, manufacturing and high tech, and consumer industries through a direct sales force, as well as partnerships with technology providers and application developers. Pegasystems Inc. was incorporated in 1983 and is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Pegasystems Inc reported revenue of $1.7B in FY2025 versus $1.2B in FY2021, a compound +9.6%/yr. Reported net income was $393M in FY2025.

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Peer Group

Software - Application · 709 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Insider activity: 42/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.