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Pegasystems Inc (PEGA) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Pegasystems Inc $45.92, price $35.18, upside +30.5%, quality 75 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Technology · US · ISIN US7055731035

PI Pegasystems Inc logo Broad data Sep 24, 2026

Pegasystems Inc

PEGA · US

Undervalued, solidFair Value upside is positive and quality is strong.

✓Fair value $45.92 · Undervalued (+31%)
✓Quality 75/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +11.4 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 20.0% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
·0.30% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (7/15)
✓Wide moat 68/100
!Insider activity 40/100
!Weak on dividend: 6 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$70.40 $15.08 Fair Value $45.92 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $15.08 – $70.40 · fair‑value band $29.16 – $72.41 · the $35.18 price screens below the $45.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Pegasystems Inc. develops, markets, licenses, hosts, and supports enterprise software in the United States, rest of the Americas, the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific.

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Pegasystems Inc. develops, markets, licenses, hosts, and supports enterprise software in the United States, rest of the Americas, the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. It provides Pega Infinity, a software portfolio comprising of Pega Customer Decision Hub, a real-time AI-powered decision engine, which can predict a customer's behavior and recommend the next best action to take across channels in real-time; Pega Customer Service to anticipate customer needs, connect customers to people and systems, and automate customer interactions to evolve the customer service experience, as well as to allow enterprises to deliver interactions across channels and enhance employee productivity; and Pega Platform, a software for AI-powered workflow automation for increasing the efficiency of clients' processes and operational workflows. The company also offers Situational Layer Cake that organizes logic into layers that map to the unique dimensions of a client's business, such as customer types, lines of business, geographies, etc.; Pega GenAI Blueprint to rapidly prototype and accelerate the development and deployment of applications; Pega Cloud that allows clients to develop, test, and deploy applications; Pega Catalyst, which helps clients to transform and prototype their customer journeys; Pega Academy, which offers enablement content for Pega product implementations, such as instructor-led and online training to its employees, clients, and partners; and global service assurance and client support services. It primarily markets its software and services to financial services, healthcare, communications and media, government, insurance, manufacturing and high tech, and consumer industries through a direct sales force, as well as partnerships with technology providers and application developers. Pegasystems Inc. was incorporated in 1983 and is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts.

Stock analysis

Pegasystems Inc (PEGA) currently trades at $35.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $45.92, implying the stock looks roughly 23.4% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $54.57 per share, and 14 of the 26 models we run sit above the $35.18 price.

Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $17.84, and 12 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $29.16 (bear) to $72.41 (bull), the price of $35.18 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Pegasystems Inc reported revenue of $1.7B in FY2025 versus $1.2B in FY2021, a compound +9.6%/yr. Reported net income was $393M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $6.5B · P/E ratio 19.8 · P/S ratio 4.45 · EPS (TTM) $1.78 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 22.5% · Return on equity 51.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.

The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at 31%, PEGA screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $29.16 Fair Value $45.92 Bull $72.41
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.23 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $34.98 $64.65 $115.27 77
Growth DCF $34.48 $60.99 $104.23 76
5Y EBITDA Exit $24.85 $43.02 $65.59 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $34.98 $64.65 $115.27 77
Owner Earnings $28.58 $53.06 $94.84 73
5Y Revenue Exit $19.89 $32.65 $49.43 72
5Y EBITDA Exit $24.85 $43.02 $65.59 74
5Y P/E Exit $41.03 $76.84 $118.37 69
10Y Revenue Exit $24.31 $38.15 $58.51 66
10Y EBITDA Exit $28.02 $45.64 $71.92 67
10Y P/E Exit $38.57 $70.06 $115.71 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $16.01 $77.99 $107.46 64
Lynch FV $20.91 $29.88 $38.84 61
PEG = 1.0 $20.91 $29.88 $38.84 57
EPV $11.16 $13.20 $14.95 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $0.8100 $1.61 $2.45 66
DDM Multi-Stage $0.8100 $1.40 $1.70 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $49.44 $65.92 $82.40 63
P/S Multiple $30.02 $40.02 $50.03 58
P/B Multiple $21.20 $28.27 $35.34 55
EV/EBIT $26.62 $36.07 $45.51 66
EV/EBITDA $21.63 $29.41 $37.19 67
EV/Revenue $12.61 $18.75 $24.89 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $2.36 $3.16 $4.71 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $34.48 $60.99 $104.23 76
Rev-Margin DCF $19.89 $32.67 $49.49 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income $23.87 $47.16 $1,407 64
ROIC Compounder $12.95 $17.84 $24.07 71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $38.20 $54.57 $70.94 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 75/100

Of which business quality 76 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29

Profitability 94
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 88
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 87
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 70
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 56
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 43
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 30
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 11
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 45
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 94/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.8% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.7%
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+33.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+33.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−14% → 15%

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+10.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.4% a year for the price and +8.2% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+13.1%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+12.1%
Projected 2028 (sales)+10.8%
Projected 2029 (sales)+9.6%
Projected 2030 (sales)+8.3%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 710 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 75 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +31% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 52% · Top 25%
Return on assets 8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 20% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −10% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.63× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 19.8× · Cheaper than median
P/B 8.26× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 3.82× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 13.2× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 32.7× · Priciest 25%
PEG 3.67× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)74 · sector 26
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 39
PAST (return on equity)100 · sector 16
HEALTH (low debt)68 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)6 · sector 33

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
SAP SE SAP €182.32 €159.06 −13%
Shopify Inc SHOP $147.74 $64.36 −56%
Uber Technologies, Inc UBER $69.89 $104.82 +50%
Salesforce, Inc CRM $233.28 $344.41 +48%
ServiceNow, Inc NOW $137.00 $150.70 +10%
Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS $302.95 $225.14 −26%
Snowflake Inc SNOW $336.59 $75.08 −78%
Datadog, Inc DDOG $247.48 $32.92 −87%
Adobe Inc ADBE $238.25 $454.04 +91%
Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP $269.64 $177.51 −34%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Pegasystems Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PEGA

Frequently asked questions

Is Pegasystems Inc (PEGA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $45.92 versus a price of $35.18, about +31% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of PEGA?
Our model-based fair value for Pegasystems Inc is $45.92 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $35.18.
What is the quality score of PEGA?
Pegasystems Inc has a Quality Score of 75/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Pegasystems Inc (PEGA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $45.92 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $29.16, optimistic scenario $72.41. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Pegasystems Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $45.92, about +31% upside versus a price of $35.18 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $29.16, optimistic scenario $72.41. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Pegasystems Inc (PEGA)?
Pegasystems Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Pegasystems Inc pay a dividend?
Pegasystems Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.30% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Pegasystems Inc (PEGA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Pegasystems Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +2.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PEGA use?
Our models discount Pegasystems Inc at 9.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.87, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Pegasystems Inc that is +2.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Pegasystems Inc (PEGA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Pegasystems Inc grew +11.4 % a year. The price currently implies +2.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Pegasystems Inc (PEGA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Pegasystems Inc (+2.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Pegasystems Inc (PEGA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.55 %: that much free cash flow Pegasystems Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Pegasystems Inc (PEGA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Pegasystems Inc it is $45.92 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $35.18. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Pegasystems Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, PEGA trades below its calculated fair value: price $35.18, fair value $45.92, a gap of about +31% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PEGA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($35.18); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($45.92). For Pegasystems Inc the two are $10.74 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Pegasystems Inc worth?
The market values Pegasystems Inc at about $6.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $35.18; our models calculate a fair value of $45.92 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PEGA?
Our models span a range for Pegasystems Inc: cautious scenario $29.16, base $45.92, optimistic $72.41 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $35.18). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PEGA?
Pegasystems Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $45.92 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.7, P/B 8.3, P/S 3.8, EV/EBITDA 32.7.
What is the PEG ratio of PEGA?
The PEG ratio of Pegasystems Inc is 3.67 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Pegasystems Inc (PEGA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Pegasystems Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 51.7%, debt of 0.63 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 75/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PEGA from its 52-week high?
Pegasystems Inc trades at $35.18, about 47% below its 52-week high of $66.49 and 35% above the low of $25.99 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $45.92 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Pegasystems Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Shopify Inc, Uber Technologies, Inc, Salesforce, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Pegasystems Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $35.18, calculated fair value $45.92 (+31%), Quality Score 75/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PEGA calculated?
We run Pegasystems Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $45.92, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Pegasystems Inc currently trades 31 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Pegasystems Inc (PEGA)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $35.18. Our model-based fair value is $45.92, about +31% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Pegasystems Inc right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (75/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. A fairly wide model range ($29.16 to $72.41) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Pegasystems Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Pegasystems Inc (PEGA)?
The market capitalisation of Pegasystems Inc is $6.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Pegasystems Inc (PEGA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Pegasystems Inc is 4.45 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Pegasystems Inc (PEGA)?
Earnings per share at Pegasystems Inc are $1.78 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Pegasystems Inc (PEGA)?
The dividend yield of Pegasystems Inc is 0.3% (payout 5.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Pegasystems Inc (PEGA)?
The net margin of Pegasystems Inc is 22.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Pegasystems Inc (PEGA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Pegasystems Inc is 51.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Pegasystems Inc (PEGA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Pegasystems Inc is 2.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Pegasystems Inc (PEGA)?
The operating margin of Pegasystems Inc is 8.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Pegasystems Inc (PEGA)?
Revenue at Pegasystems Inc is growing −9.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Pegasystems Inc (PEGA)?
Earnings per share at Pegasystems Inc are growing −60.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Pegasystems Inc (PEGA) hold?
Pegasystems Inc holds more cash than debt, $136M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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