Semtech Corporation (SMTC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Semtech Corporation stock $44.03, price $103, that is 57.3% below the price, quality 54 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Semtech Corporation
SMTC · USOur calculation puts a fair price 57% below what the stock costs today.
Risks from the AI analysis
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $13.43 – $197.20 · fair‑value band $27.98 – $65.28 · the $103.21 price screens above the $44.03 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Company profile
Semtech Corporation provides semiconductor, Internet of Things systems, and cloud connectivity service solutions in the Asia- Pacific, North America, and Europe. The company operates in three segments: Signal Integrity, Analog Mixed Signal and Wireless, and IoT Systems and Connectivity.
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It provides signal integrity products, including a portfolio of optical and copper data communications and video transport products used in various infrastructure, and industrial applications; a portfolio of integrated circuits for data centers, enterprise networks, passive optical networks, wireless base station optical transceivers, and interface applications; and video products for broadcast applications, as well as video-over-IP technology for professional audio video applications.
The company also offers analog mixed signal and wireless products; protection devices, such as filter and termination devices which protect electronic systems from voltage spikes; and designs, develops, manufactures, and markets radio frequency products used in industrial, medical, and communications applications, as well as specialized sensing products.
In addition, it provides switching voltage regulators, combination switching and linear regulators, smart regulators, isolated switches, and wireless charging related products.
Further, the company offers a portfolio of IoT systems and connectivity solutions, such as modules, gateways, routers, and connected services, including wireless connectivity and cloud-based services for industrial, medical, and communications applications.
It serves original equipment manufacturers, solution providers, commercial applications, infrastructure, high-end consumer, and industrial end markets. The company sells its products through direct sales personnel, independent sales representative firms, and independent distributors.
Semtech Corporation was incorporated in 1960 and is headquartered in Camarillo, California.
Stock analysis
Semtech Corporation (SMTC) currently trades at $103.21, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $44.03, 57% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $31.19 per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the $103.21 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $7.40, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $27.98 (bear) to $65.28 (bull), the price of $103.21 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Semtech Corporation reported revenue of $1.1B in FY2026 versus $741M in FY2022, a compound +9.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$40.4M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $11.7B Large · P/E ratio 68.4 · P/S ratio 9.94 · EPS (TTM) $1.51 · Net margin 13.1% · Return on equity 23.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin 16.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 56 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 65% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −7% fair-value upside, at −57%, SMTC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
All 13 models by family
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
Quality Score breakdown
It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.
Insider trades
In the last 6 months, 10 officers or directors sold shares worth $10.7M and none bought.
- SalePaul Walsh V JrDirector12× since Nov 19, 2025: 6,000 shares, avg. $114.32$685,890Oct 21, 202610b5-1 plan
- SaleJason Elliot GreenEVP and CCO3× since Apr 1, 2026: 12,530 shares, avg. $114.41$1.4MOct 7, 2026
- SaleHong Q HouPresident and CEO, Director9× since Dec 3, 2025: 33,605 shares, avg. $122.67$4.1MOct 2, 2026
- SaleMark LinEVP and CFO9× since Jan 5, 2026: 28,020 shares, avg. $90.18$2.5MOct 1, 202610b5-1 plan
- SaleRodolpho C CardenutoDirector5,321 shares at $165.00$877,965Sep 16, 2026
- SaleJulie Garcia RuehlDirector1,500 shares at $145.00$217,500Sep 4, 202610b5-1 plan
- SaleAsaf SilbersteinEVP and COO8× since Dec 5, 2025: 54,000 shares, avg. $104.64$5.7MAug 17, 2026
- SaleGregory Michael FischerDirector3× since Jan 9, 2026: 3,534 shares, avg. $135.01$477,117Jun 30, 2026
- SaleJohn Michael WilsonChief Quality Officer and CTO2× since Jan 8, 2026: 10,500 shares, avg. $124.82$1.3MJun 22, 2026
- SaleYe Jane LiDirector5,285 shares at $166.84$881,749May 28, 2026
Plus 2 more entries from the last 12 months.
Plus 21 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Forecast
SMTC screens overvalued: fair value 57% below the price. Compare with NVIDIA Corporation →
Recent news
- Will Semtech (SMTC) Beat Estimates Again in Its Next Earnings Report?
- Semtech Stock Selloff Raises A Bigger Question After Analyst Day
- Semtech (SMTC) Expands AirLink 5G Features, Is The Stock Still A Bargain?
- Semtech (SMTC) Stock Looks Undervalued Despite Its 7x Three Year Run
Compare Semtech Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductors · 369 stocks
Valuation Multiplesvs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Information Technology sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Return on equity by industry
- Quality Score by industry
- Piotroski F-Score screener with fair value
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Semiconductors stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SK hynix Inc 000660 | 1,132,000 KRW | 1,501,896 KRW | +33% | vs SMTC |
| Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company TSM | $375.44 | $412.98 | +10% | vs SMTC |
| NVIDIA Corporation NVDA | $186.64 | $198.56 | +6% | vs SMTC |
| Broadcom Inc AVGO | $293.69 | $300.84 | +2% | vs SMTC |
| Intel Corporation INTC | $56.28 | $52.14 | −7% | vs SMTC |
| Micron Technology, Inc MU | $690.00 | $619.48 | −10% | vs SMTC |
| Analog Devices, Inc ADI | $363.56 | $262.04 | −28% | vs SMTC |
| Marvell Technology, Inc MRVL | $141.20 | $87.64 | −38% | vs SMTC |
| Advanced Micro Devices, Inc AMD | $449.04 | $148.02 | −67% | vs SMTC |
| Texas Instruments Incorporated TXN | $277.36 | $81.25 | −71% | vs SMTC |
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Key figures of Semtech Corporation
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