Semtech Corporation (SMTC) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $13.2B
Semtech Corporation
SMTC · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Share price +8.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 69% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($56.42). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($26.74 to $56.42) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $13.43 – $174.73 · fair‑value band $26.74 – $56.42 · the $139.42 price screens above the $43.86 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Semtech Corporation (SMTC) currently trades at $139.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $43.86, implying the stock looks roughly 68.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Semtech Corporation generated revenue of $1.1B at a net margin of -3.0%. Revenue grew 15.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -5.8%. Net debt stands at $296M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $26.74 (bear case) to $56.42 (bull case); at $139.42, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 266% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -67% fair-value upside, at -69%, SMTC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($26.66) versus Dividend Discount ($0.9100). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Semtech Corporation provides semiconductor, Internet of Things systems, and cloud connectivity service solutions in the Asia- Pacific, North America, and Europe. The company operates in three segments: Signal Integrity, Analog Mixed Signal and Wireless, and IoT Systems and Connectivity.
Full company description
Semtech Corporation provides semiconductor, Internet of Things systems, and cloud connectivity service solutions in the Asia- Pacific, North America, and Europe. The company operates in three segments: Signal Integrity, Analog Mixed Signal and Wireless, and IoT Systems and Connectivity. It provides signal integrity products, including a portfolio of optical and copper data communications and video transport products used in various infrastructure, and industrial applications; a portfolio of integrated circuits for data centers, enterprise networks, passive optical networks, wireless base station optical transceivers, and interface applications; and video products for broadcast applications, as well as video-over-IP technology for professional audio video applications. The company also offers analog mixed signal and wireless products; protection devices, such as filter and termination devices which protect electronic systems from voltage spikes; and designs, develops, manufactures, and markets radio frequency products used in industrial, medical, and communications applications, as well as specialized sensing products. In addition, it provides switching voltage regulators, combination switching and linear regulators, smart regulators, isolated switches, and wireless charging related products. Further, the company offers a portfolio of IoT systems and connectivity solutions, such as modules, gateways, routers, and connected services, including wireless connectivity and cloud-based services for industrial, medical, and communications applications. It serves original equipment manufacturers, solution providers, commercial applications, infrastructure, high-end consumer, and industrial end markets. The company sells its products through direct sales personnel, independent sales representative firms, and independent distributors. Semtech Corporation was incorporated in 1960 and is headquartered in Camarillo, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Semtech Corporation reported revenue of $1.1B in FY2026 versus $741M in FY2022, a compound +9.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$40.4M in FY2026.
SMTC screens 69% overvalued. Compare with NVIDIA Corporation →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Is Semtech (SMTC) Undervalued As AI Data Center Growth Fuels Its Story?
- Is Semtech (SMTC) Still Cheap Or Is Too Much Priced In?
- Amtech, Semtech, Nova, Power Integrations, and FormFactor Shares Are Falling, What You Need To Know
- Semtech and Lam Research Shares Plummet, What You Need To Know
Peer Group
Semiconductors · 319 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Semiconductors stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA Corporation NVDA | $211.80 | $96.91 | -54% |
| Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company TSM | $398.37 | $207.49 | -48% |
| Broadcom Inc 1AVGO | €367.75 | €121.25 | -67% |
| Micron Technology, Inc 1MU | €784.90 | €185.67 | -76% |
| SK hynix Inc 000660 | 2,082,000 KRW | 1,109,311 KRW | -47% |
| Advanced Micro Devices, Inc 1AMD | €425.20 | €56.33 | -87% |
| Intel Corporation INTC | C$68.40 | C$9.82 | -86% |
| Texas Instruments Incorporated TXN | $311.46 | $59.75 | -81% |
| MediaTek Inc 2454 | 3,740 TWD | 1,163 TWD | -69% |
| SK Square Co 402340 | 1,212,000 KRW | 868,000 KRW | -28% |
Compare Semtech Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Technology stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Semtech Corporation (SMTC) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of SMTC?
What is the quality score of SMTC?
What is the revenue of Semtech Corporation (SMTC)?
What is the net profit margin of SMTC?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Semtech Corporation and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.