Yara International ASA (YAR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Yara International ASA stock NOK 409, price NOK 401, upside +2.0%, quality 68 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 272.18 – kr 572.42 · fair‑value band kr 268.13 – kr 616.11 · the kr 401.00 price screens below the kr 409.02 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 2, 2026.
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Yara International ASA provides crop nutrition, ammonia, and industrial solutions in Norway, European Union, Europe, Africa, Asia, North America, Latin America, Australia, and New Zealand.
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The company offers ammonium- and urea-based fertilizers; compound fertilizers that contain nutrients, such as nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium; coatings; biostimulants; organic-based fertilizers; climate choice fertilizers; and nitrate-based fertilizers, as well as foliar and fertigation solutions; and nitrate, calcium nitrate, micronutrient, and urea fertilizers.
It also provides digital solutions, such as YaraFX Insight, an agricultural API that connects unparalleled crop nutrition expertise with digital platforms; N-sensors, a tractor-mounted sensor; N-Tester, a handheld tool that measures chlorophyll content; YaraPlus, a digital platform to support crop nutrition decisions; Atfarm, a digital toolbox for farmer; Tankmix, an app and web solutions that provides guidelines; Yara E-commerce, a platform that enables customer access to nutritional solutions; Yara FarmCare, a mobile app for farmers; Yara AllFarm, a farm management platform; YaraConnect, a mobile app for retailers; and Yara Crop Nutrition Recommendation System, a service that helps farmers to make decisions for crop management.
The company sells its products under YaraBela, YaraMila, YaraLiva, YaraVita, YaraAmplix, YaraRega, YaraTera, YaraSuna, and YaraVera brand names. Yara International ASA was founded in 1905 and is based in Oslo, Norway.
Stock analysis
Yara International ASA (YAR) currently trades at kr 401.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 409.02, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 2.0%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of kr 704.06 per share, and 19 of the 24 models we run sit above the kr 401.00 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at kr 64.14, and 5 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 268.13 (bear) to kr 616.11 (bull), the price of kr 401.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Yara International ASA reported revenue of $15.6B in FY2025 versus $16.6B in FY2021, a compound −1.5%/yr. Reported net income was $1.4B in FY2025, compounding +32.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 102B NOK (≈ $11.0B) Large · P/E ratio 7.5 · P/S ratio 0.65 · EPS (TTM) kr 53.68 · Dividend yield 5.5% · Net margin 8.8% · Return on equity 16.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 4% fair-value upside, at 2%, YAR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bearkr 268.13Fair Value kr 409.02Bullkr 616.11
Price kr 401.00 · Upside +2.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 26.91 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCFkr 387.99kr 589.86kr 986.4376
Growth DCFkr 410.27kr 610.08kr 977.1875
EPVkr 238.74kr 297.02kr 350.0074
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFkr 387.99kr 589.86kr 986.4376
Owner Earningskr 285.24kr 441.56kr 748.6272
5Y Revenue Exitkr 407.18kr 645.29kr 978.5069
5Y EBITDA Exitkr 502.91kr 809.48kr 1,19972
5Y P/E Exitkr 451.71kr 721.67kr 1,02968
10Y Revenue Exitkr 380.47kr 596.66kr 849.6964
10Y EBITDA Exitkr 458.47kr 711.33kr 1,00566
10Y P/E Exitkr 425.26kr 650.00kr 885.4062
Earnings-Based
Graham-Doddkr 339.95kr 611.02kr 753.3964
EPVkr 238.74kr 297.02kr 350.0074
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGMkr 47.43kr 64.14kr 82.4067
DDM Multi-Stagekr 47.43kr 67.67kr 94.6164
Multiples
P/E Multiplekr 637.41kr 849.88kr 1,06263
P/S Multiplekr 637.41kr 849.88kr 1,06258
P/B Multiplekr 302.73kr 403.64kr 504.5555
EV/EBITkr 503.27kr 704.06kr 904.8666
EV/EBITDAkr 628.05kr 870.44kr 1,11367
EV/Revenuekr 422.95kr 646.69kr 870.4453
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)kr 143.75kr 192.63kr 287.5054
Growth DCF
Growth DCFkr 410.27kr 610.08kr 977.1875
Rev-Margin DCFkr 407.18kr 651.60kr 942.4970
Economic Profit
Residual Incomekr 351.78kr 427.32kr 598.7673
ROIC Compounderkr 238.74kr 297.02kr 363.2970
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/Ekr 454.10kr 648.71kr 843.3265
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical peak year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.87/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
−26.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−32.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.19.6% vs 4.9%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 10%
2025 sits 2,694% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−1.3%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −3.6% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (87 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Decarbonization via the new carbon capture facility and US investments represent the main strength, but commodity exposure and Chinese export pressure remain the key weakness limiting competitiveness.
Main risk: Uncertainty over whether the EU could maintain or suspend its carbon border adjustment mechanism on fertilisers could force Yara to abandon planned low-carbon ammonia investments in the US and undermine the business case for decarbonised production in Europe.
Bull case: If the EU upholds CBAM and Yara completes its US and European low-carbon ammonia projects while leveraging its global distribution network, the company could strengthen its position in premium low-emission fertilisers and new ammonia energy markets.
Bear case: If CBAM is suspended or weakened and lower-cost rivals maintain their feedstock advantages, Yara could face sustained margin pressure, delayed or cancelled decarbonisation investments and reduced competitiveness for its European production assets.
Yara has brought Europe’s largest industrial carbon capture facility online at its Sluiskil plant, creating the first full cross-border CCS chain. The move supports its push to improve position on the ammonia cost curve through disciplined US investments after stepping back from one project. Yet Chinese exports continue to weigh on margins while fertilizer demand stays volatile. Will the decarbonization and asset upgrades deliver more durable competitiveness than the current export pressure takes away?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Agricultural Inputs · 162 stocks
Beats the industry median on 13/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+2.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)16.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets8.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)8.4% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)8.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)8.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)5.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.32× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Yara International ASA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/YAR
Frequently asked questions
Is Yara International ASA (YAR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 409.02 versus a price of kr 401.00, about +2% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of YAR?
Our model-based fair value for Yara International ASA is kr 409.02 (as of Nov 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 401.00.
What is the quality score of YAR?
Yara International ASA has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Yara International ASA (YAR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 409.02 (as of Nov 2, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 268.13, optimistic scenario kr 616.11. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Yara International ASA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 409.02, about +2% upside versus a price of kr 401.00 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario kr 268.13, optimistic scenario kr 616.11. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Yara International ASA (YAR)?
Yara International ASA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $16.9B (latest available figure, as of Nov 2, 2026).
Does Yara International ASA pay a dividend?
Yara International ASA currently shows a dividend yield of 5.49% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Yara International ASA (YAR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Yara International ASA would have to grow free cash flow by -1.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.2 % per year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of YAR use?
Our models discount Yara International ASA at 7.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.26, country premium for Norway. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Yara International ASA that is -1.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (7.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Yara International ASA (YAR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Yara International ASA grew +6.2 % a year. The price currently implies -1.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Yara International ASA (YAR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Yara International ASA (-1.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Yara International ASA (YAR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.73 %: that much free cash flow Yara International ASA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Yara International ASA (YAR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Yara International ASA it is kr 409.02 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026), against a price of kr 401.00. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Yara International ASA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 2, 2026, YAR trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 401.00, fair value kr 409.02, a gap of about +2% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of YAR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 401.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 409.02). For Yara International ASA the two are kr 8.02 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Yara International ASA worth?
The market values Yara International ASA at about 102B NOK (market capitalisation, as of Nov 2, 2026). Per share that is kr 401.00; our models calculate a fair value of kr 409.02 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about YAR?
Our models span a range for Yara International ASA: cautious scenario kr 268.13, base kr 409.02, optimistic kr 616.11 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026, price kr 401.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of YAR?
Yara International ASA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.5 (as of Nov 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 409.02 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 22.5. Other multiples: PEG 2.5, P/B 1.3, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 4.4.
What is the PEG ratio of YAR?
The PEG ratio of Yara International ASA is 2.53 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 2, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Yara International ASA (YAR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Yara International ASA (as of Nov 2, 2026): return on equity 16.0%, debt of 0.32 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is YAR from its 52-week high?
Yara International ASA trades at kr 401.00, about 30% below its 52-week high of kr 572.42 and 17% above the low of kr 342.23 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 409.02 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Yara International ASA?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nutrien Ltd, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co, CF Industries Holdings, Yunnan Yuntianhua Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Yara International ASA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 2, 2026: price kr 401.00, calculated fair value kr 409.02 (+2%), Quality Score 68/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of YAR calculated?
We run Yara International ASA through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 409.02, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Yara International ASA currently trades 2% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Yara International ASA (YAR)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was kr 401.00. Our model-based fair value is kr 409.02, about +2% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Yara International ASA right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (kr 268.13 to kr 616.11) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Yara International ASA (YAR) come from?
Earnings per share at Yara International ASA grew −1.5 % a year from 2011 to 2022. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.4 %, EBIT margin −1.2 %, tax rate −1.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Yara International ASA
How large is the market capitalisation of Yara International ASA (YAR)?
The market capitalisation of Yara International ASA is 102B NOK (≈ $11.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Yara International ASA (YAR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Yara International ASA is 0.65 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Yara International ASA (YAR)?
Earnings per share at Yara International ASA are kr 53.68 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Yara International ASA (YAR)?
The dividend yield of Yara International ASA is 5.5% (payout 41.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Yara International ASA (YAR)?
The net margin of Yara International ASA is 8.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Yara International ASA (YAR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Yara International ASA is 16.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Yara International ASA (YAR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Yara International ASA is 8.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Yara International ASA (YAR)?
The operating margin of Yara International ASA is 8.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Yara International ASA (YAR)?
Revenue at Yara International ASA is growing +8.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −13.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Yara International ASA (YAR)?
Earnings per share at Yara International ASA are growing −38.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Yara International ASA (YAR) carry?
The net debt of Yara International ASA is $2.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 2, 2026