Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd (000630) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd stock ¥2.20, price ¥5.04, that is 56.3% below the price, quality 45 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 17 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥2.28 – ¥9.01 · fair‑value band ¥2.13 – ¥2.76 · the ¥5.04 price screens above the ¥2.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.,Ltd. engages in the mining, smelting, beneficiation, processing, and trading of copper. It offers cathode copper, sulfuric acid, gold, silver, copper foil, and copper strip and plates. The company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Tongling, China.
Stock analysis
Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd (000630) currently trades at ¥5.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.20, 56% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥3.80 per share, and 4 of the 17 models we run sit above the ¥5.04 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at ¥0.4800, and 13 of the 17 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥2.13 (bear) to ¥2.76 (bull), the price of ¥5.04 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd reported revenue of 173B CNY in FY2025 versus 131B CNY in FY2021, a compound +7.2%/yr. Reported net income was 2.4B CNY in FY2025, compounding −6.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 67.6B CNY (≈ $10.2B) Large · P/E ratio 11.7 · P/S ratio 0.42 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.4300 · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin 2.4% · Return on equity 16.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 44 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −56%, 000630 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥2.13Fair Value ¥2.20Bull¥2.76
Price ¥5.04 · Downside -56.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.2718 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+18.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.1% a year
Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+19.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.17.0% vs 19.6%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 6%
AI conclusion: Limited durable advantages in copper smelting are the main weakness, while recent growth in foil and new materials offers the only notable strength amid thin overall margins.
Main risk: Larger domestic competitors such as Jiangxi Copper and Zijin Mining with greater capacity could intensify competition and further reduce smelting processing fees, hitting margins on core operations.
Bull case: By expanding copper foil and new materials production for AI infrastructure and improving operational efficiency through technology, the company could offset thin smelting margins and capture higher-value demand.
Bear case: If competition from larger integrated smelters drives processing fees even lower amid soft demand, the thin-margin smelting model could face sustained pressure with limited offset from downstream products.
Tongling Nonferrous runs a copper smelting business where gross margins on core products hover near 6 percent despite recent price support. First-half profits rose sharply on higher metal prices and foil fees, yet the model leaves little cushion if processing fees stay low or demand softens. Will growth in copper foil and new materials offset the thin margins in its main operations, or will cyclical pressure prevail?
Compare Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Copper · 58 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Below median
Fair Value upside−56.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)16.1% · Above median
Return on assets3.5% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)3.5% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)10.1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)36.9% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.30× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Copper median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)11.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.83× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)0.42× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA5.4× · Cheapest 25%
PEG0.49× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)64· sector 44
HEALTH (low debt)85· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)44· sector 26
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000630
Frequently asked questions
Is Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd (000630) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥2.20 versus a price of ¥5.04, about 56% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 000630?
Our model-based fair value for Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd is ¥2.20 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥5.04.
What is the quality score of 000630?
Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd (000630)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥2.20 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥2.13, optimistic scenario ¥2.76. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥2.20, about 56% lower versus a price of ¥5.04 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥2.13, optimistic scenario ¥2.76. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd (000630)?
Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 235B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 2.18% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd (000630)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd it is ¥2.20 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of ¥5.04. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, 000630 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥5.04, fair value ¥2.20, a gap of about −56% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 000630?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥5.04); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥2.20). For Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd the two are ¥2.84 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd worth?
The market values Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd at about 67.6B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is ¥5.04; our models calculate a fair value of ¥2.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 000630?
Our models span a range for Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥2.13, base ¥2.20, optimistic ¥2.76 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price ¥5.04). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 000630?
Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.7 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥2.20 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 26.5 (reported for FY2025: 28.0). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 28.5. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 1.8, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 5.4.
What is the PEG ratio of 000630?
The PEG ratio of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd is 0.49 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd (000630)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 16.1%, debt of 0.30 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 000630 from its 52-week high?
Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd trades at ¥5.04, about 44% below its 52-week high of ¥9.01 and 7% above the low of ¥4.70 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥2.20 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Southern Copper Corporation, Freeport-McMoRan Inc, Lundin Mining Corporation, First Quantum Minerals Ltd, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price ¥5.04, calculated fair value ¥2.20 (−56%), Quality Score 45/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 000630 calculated?
We run Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥2.20, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd (000630)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was ¥5.04. Our model-based fair value is ¥2.20, about 56% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥2.76). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (45/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd (000630) come from?
Earnings per share at Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd grew +17.0 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −0.3 %, EBIT margin +26.8 %, tax rate −1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −5.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd (000630)?
The market capitalisation of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd is 67.6B CNY (≈ $10.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd (000630)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd is 0.42 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd (000630)?
Earnings per share at Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd are ¥0.4300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd (000630)?
The dividend yield of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd is 2.2% (payout 24.3%, on adjusted earnings, reported 25.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd (000630)?
The net margin of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd is 2.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd (000630)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd is 16.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd (000630)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd is 8.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd (000630)?
The operating margin of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd is 10.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd (000630)?
Revenue at Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd is growing +36.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd (000630)?
Earnings per share at Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd are growing +476% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd (000630) generate?
The free cash flow of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd is −3.4B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd (000630) carry?
The net debt of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co Ltd is 20.2B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 5, 2026