Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd (000858) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd stock ¥83.40, price ¥75.82, upside +10.0%, quality 70 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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The stock costs about what our calculation considers fair.
Quality 70/100
Highly profitable · 28.5% net margin (TTM)
Generates free cash flow
3.4% dividend yield · Sustainable
Ranks above peers(10/14)
Wide moat65/100
Broad data
Fair value ¥83.40 · Fairly valued (+10.0%)
Revenue last quarter 38% below a year ago.
Weak Growth(revenue 5y −6.7 %/yr in CNY)
Quality growth
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Price drop: Weak holiday demand and wholesale price pressure leading to analyst downgrade🚩Weak holiday demand and pressure on premium wholesale prices🚩Rivals like Moutai and Laojiao erode premium share🚩Anti-corruption curbs banquet and gifting demand
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥68.51 – ¥263.89 · fair‑value band ¥75.21 – ¥104.25 · the ¥75.82 price screens below the ¥83.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Wuliangye Yibin Co.,Ltd. manufactures and sells liquor and wine products and related auxiliary products under the Wuliangye brand in China. The company's Wuliangye products include eighth-generation Wuliangye, 39 -degree Wuliangye, classic Wuliangye, 29 -degree Wuliangye, etc.
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It also offers other alcoholic beverage products, such as Wuliangchun, Wuliangchun, Wuliangtequ, Jianzhuang, etc. The company was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Xuzhou, China.
Stock analysis
Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd (000858) currently trades at ¥75.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥83.40, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 9.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of ¥194.06 per share, and 12 of the 25 models we run sit above the ¥75.82 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥24.40, and 13 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥75.21 (bear) to ¥104.25 (bull), the price of ¥75.82 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd reported revenue of 40.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 66.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound −11.5%/yr. Reported net income was 9.0B CNY in FY2025, compounding −21.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 294B CNY (≈ $44.2B) Large · P/E ratio 24.1 · P/S ratio 6.88 · EPS (TTM) ¥3.14 · Dividend yield 3.4% · Net margin 28.5% · Return on equity 9.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 20.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 65 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 25% fair-value upside, at 10%, 000858 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥75.21Fair Value ¥83.40Bull¥104.25
Price ¥75.82 · Upside +10.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.4773 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−54.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−18.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.5% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−11.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−14.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−14.8% vs 3.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.49% → 23%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−14.2%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −15.7% a year for the price and +5.2% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Strong margins and zero debt underscore a brand moat in baijiu, but limited signals on innovation, human capital and governance indicate only moderate durability.
Main risk: Named rivals such as Kweichow Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao could capture more premium baijiu customers through stronger branding or innovative marketing and force Wuliangye to cut prices or lose margins on its core products.
Bull case: Wuliangye could expand its low-alcohol and youth-focused lines while leveraging state backing and regional strengths to regain share from rivals and adapt to shifting consumption patterns.
Bear case: If rivals continue gaining ground and regulatory curbs on gifting persist, Wuliangye's premium volumes could decline structurally as consumers shift to milder alternatives or other spirits.
Wuliangye delivered strong half-year revenue and profit growth in its core baijiu business. Yet recent channel checks show weak holiday demand and pressure on wholesale prices for premium products, leading to an analyst downgrade. Will tighter shipment controls and regional strengths in places like Hunan offset the broader caution among consumers, or will demand softness spread further?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 89 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000858
Frequently asked questions
Is Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd (000858) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥83.40 versus a price of ¥75.82, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 000858?
Our model-based fair value for Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd is ¥83.40 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥75.82.
What is the quality score of 000858?
Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd (000858)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥83.40 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥75.21, optimistic scenario ¥104.25. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥83.40, about +10% upside versus a price of ¥75.82 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario ¥75.21, optimistic scenario ¥104.25. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd (000858)?
Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 42.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 3.40% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd (000858)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -14.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -6.7 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 000858 use?
Our models discount Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.30, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd that is -14.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd (000858) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd grew -6.7 % a year. The price currently implies -14.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd (000858) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd (-14.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd (000858)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.43 %: that much free cash flow Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd (000858)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd it is ¥83.40 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of ¥75.82. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, 000858 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥75.82, fair value ¥83.40, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 000858?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥75.82); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥83.40). For Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd the two are ¥7.58 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd worth?
The market values Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd at about 294B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is ¥75.82; our models calculate a fair value of ¥83.40 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 000858?
Our models span a range for Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥75.21, base ¥83.40, optimistic ¥104.25 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price ¥75.82). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 000858?
Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.1 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥83.40 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 28.0. Other multiples: PEG 1.3, P/B 2.5, P/S 6.9, EV/EBITDA 11.4.
What is the PEG ratio of 000858?
The PEG ratio of Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd is 1.26 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd (000858)?
Balance-sheet figures for Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 9.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 000858 from its 52-week high?
Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd trades at ¥75.82, about 34% below its 52-week high of ¥114.45 and 11% above the low of ¥68.51 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥83.40 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Kweichow Moutai Co, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co, Pernod Ricard SA, Luzhou Laojiao Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price ¥75.82, calculated fair value ¥83.40 (+10%), Quality Score 70/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 000858 calculated?
We run Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥83.40, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd currently trades 9% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd (000858)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was ¥75.82. Our model-based fair value is ¥83.40, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd (000858) come from?
Earnings per share at Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd grew +17.7 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +15.2 %, EBIT margin +2.2 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd (000858)?
The market capitalisation of Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd is 294B CNY (≈ $44.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd (000858)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd is 6.88 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd (000858)?
Earnings per share at Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd are ¥3.14 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 24.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd (000858)?
The dividend yield of Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd is 3.4% (payout 82.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd (000858)?
The net margin of Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd is 28.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd (000858)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd is 9.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd (000858)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd is 20.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd (000858)?
The operating margin of Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd is 22.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd (000858)?
Revenue at Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd is growing −37.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −18.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd (000858)?
Earnings per share at Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd are growing −48.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd (000858) hold?
Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 127B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026