Henderson Land Development Company (0012) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Henderson Land Development Company stock HK$19.85, price HK$29.70, that is 33.2% below the price, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$14.96 – HK$34.54 · fair‑value band HK$14.89 – HK$24.81 · the HK$29.70 price screens above the HK$19.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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Henderson Land Development Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the property development and investment activities in Hong Kong and Mainland China.
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The company operates through Property Development, Property Leasing, Department Stores and Supermarket-Cum-Stores Operations, Hotel Room Operation, Other Businesses, and Utility and Energy segments. The Property Development segment develops and sells real estate properties.
Its property portfolio primarily includes offices, shopping arcades, and shopping malls. The Property Leasing segment leases properties. The Department Stores and Supermarket-Cum-Stores Operations segment operates and manages department stores and supermarket-cum-stores.
The Hotel Room Operation segment operates hotel properties. The Other Businesses segment manages hotels; provides construction, finance, project management, property management, agency, and cleaning and security guard services, as well as the trading of building materials.
It engages in food and beverage, and travel operations. The Utility and Energy segment is involved in production, distribution, and marketing gas; and water supply and renewable energy businesses. Henderson Land Development Company Limited was founded in 1976 and is based in Central, Hong Kong.
Henderson Land Development Company Limited is a subsidiary of Henderson Development Limited.
Stock analysis
Henderson Land Development Company (0012) currently trades at HK$29.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$19.85, 33% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$44.58 per share, and 2 of the 10 models we run sit above the HK$29.70 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at HK$2.79, and 8 of the 10 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$14.89 (bear) to HK$24.81 (bull), the price of HK$29.70 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2018: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2018.
Henderson Land Development Company reported revenue of HK$25.7B in FY2025 versus HK$23.9B in FY2021, a compound +1.9%/yr. Reported net income was HK$5.7B in FY2025, compounding −19.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$151B (≈ $19.2B) Large · P/E ratio 20.3 · P/S ratio 4.46 · Dividend yield 4.2% · Net margin 22.0% · Return on equity 2.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3% (5-year average) · Operating margin 25.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −51% fair-value upside, at −33%, 0012 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearHK$14.89Fair Value HK$19.85BullHK$24.81
Price HK$29.70 · Downside -33.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2018: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2018.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−14.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−18.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−16.0% vs −12.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.51% → 17%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.0% a year for the price and −0.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (14 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Diversified · 114 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Below median
Fair Value upside−33.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)2.5% · Below median
Return on assets1.1% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)20.5% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)25.1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)80.1% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)4.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.47× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)20.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B0.47× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)4.51× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)12.2× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA42.0× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.70× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 37
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 5
PAST (return on equity)10· sector 22
HEALTH (low debt)77· sector 74
DIVIDEND (yield)85· sector 64
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Henderson Land Development Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0012
Frequently asked questions
Is Henderson Land Development Company (0012) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$19.85 versus a price of HK$29.70, about 33% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0012?
Our model-based fair value for Henderson Land Development Company is HK$19.85 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$29.70.
What is the quality score of 0012?
Henderson Land Development Company has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Henderson Land Development Company (0012)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$19.85 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$14.89, optimistic scenario HK$24.81. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Henderson Land Development Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$19.85, about 33% lower versus a price of HK$29.70 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$14.89, optimistic scenario HK$24.81. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Henderson Land Development Company (0012)?
Henderson Land Development Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$33.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does Henderson Land Development Company pay a dividend?
Henderson Land Development Company currently shows a dividend yield of 4.24% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Henderson Land Development Company (0012) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Henderson Land Development Company pays a dividend of HK$1.26 per share a year, a dividend yield of 4.2%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 3, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1990. The payout ratio is 108% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.02 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Henderson Land Development Company (0012)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Henderson Land Development Company would have to grow free cash flow by +13.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.6 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0012 use?
Our models discount Henderson Land Development Company at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.11, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Henderson Land Development Company that is +13.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Henderson Land Development Company (0012) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Henderson Land Development Company grew +0.6 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +13.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Henderson Land Development Company (0012) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Henderson Land Development Company (+13.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Henderson Land Development Company (0012)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.18 %: that much free cash flow Henderson Land Development Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Henderson Land Development Company (0012)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Henderson Land Development Company it is HK$19.85 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of HK$29.70. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Henderson Land Development Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, 0012 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$29.70, fair value HK$19.85, a gap of about −33% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0012?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$29.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$19.85). For Henderson Land Development Company the two are HK$9.85 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Henderson Land Development Company worth?
The market values Henderson Land Development Company at about HK$151B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is HK$29.70; our models calculate a fair value of HK$19.85 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0012?
Our models span a range for Henderson Land Development Company: cautious scenario HK$14.89, base HK$19.85, optimistic HK$24.81 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price HK$29.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0012?
Henderson Land Development Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.3 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$19.85 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2019 to 2025), reported earnings: 14.3. Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/B 0.5, P/S 4.5, EV/EBITDA 42.0.
What is the PEG ratio of 0012?
The PEG ratio of Henderson Land Development Company is 0.70 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 9, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Henderson Land Development Company (0012)?
Balance-sheet figures for Henderson Land Development Company (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 2.5%, debt of 0.47 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0012 from its 52-week high?
Henderson Land Development Company trades at HK$29.70, about 14% below its 52-week high of HK$34.54 and 20% above the low of HK$24.80 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$19.85 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Henderson Land Development Company?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Swiss Prime Site AG, The Phoenix Mills Limited, Prestige Estates Projects Limited, Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Henderson Land Development Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price HK$29.70, calculated fair value HK$19.85 (−33%), Quality Score 55/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0012 calculated?
We run Henderson Land Development Company through 13 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of HK$19.85 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Henderson Land Development Company itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Henderson Land Development Company (0012)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was HK$29.70. Our model-based fair value is HK$19.85, about 33% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Henderson Land Development Company right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$24.81). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Henderson Land Development Company (0012) come from?
Earnings per share at Henderson Land Development Company grew −11.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.8 %, EBIT margin −4.2 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −7.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Henderson Land Development Company
How large is the market capitalisation of Henderson Land Development Company (0012)?
The market capitalisation of Henderson Land Development Company is HK$151B (≈ $19.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Henderson Land Development Company (0012)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Henderson Land Development Company is 4.46 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Henderson Land Development Company (0012)?
The dividend yield of Henderson Land Development Company is 4.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Henderson Land Development Company (0012)?
The net margin of Henderson Land Development Company is 22.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Henderson Land Development Company (0012)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Henderson Land Development Company is 2.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Henderson Land Development Company (0012)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Henderson Land Development Company is 1.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Henderson Land Development Company (0012)?
The operating margin of Henderson Land Development Company is 25.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Henderson Land Development Company (0012)?
Revenue at Henderson Land Development Company is growing +80.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Henderson Land Development Company (0012)?
Earnings per share at Henderson Land Development Company are growing +35.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Henderson Land Development Company (0012) carry?
The net debt of Henderson Land Development Company is HK$142B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 11.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 9, 2026