Henderson Land Development Company (0012) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Henderson Land Development Company HK$19.85, price HK$26.30, upside -24.5%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$14.96 – HK$34.54 · fair‑value band HK$14.89 – HK$24.81 · the HK$26.30 price screens above the HK$19.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Henderson Land Development Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the property development and investment activities in Hong Kong and Mainland China.
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Henderson Land Development Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the property development and investment activities in Hong Kong and Mainland China. The company operates through Property Development, Property Leasing, Department Stores and Supermarket-Cum-Stores Operations, Hotel Room Operation, Other Businesses, and Utility and Energy segments. The Property Development segment develops and sells real estate properties. Its property portfolio primarily includes offices, shopping arcades, and shopping malls. The Property Leasing segment leases properties. The Department Stores and Supermarket-Cum-Stores Operations segment operates and manages department stores and supermarket-cum-stores. The Hotel Room Operation segment operates hotel properties. The Other Businesses segment manages hotels; provides construction, finance, project management, property management, agency, and cleaning and security guard services, as well as the trading of building materials. It engages in food and beverage, and travel operations. The Utility and Energy segment is involved in production, distribution, and marketing gas; and water supply and renewable energy businesses. Henderson Land Development Company Limited was founded in 1976 and is based in Central, Hong Kong. Henderson Land Development Company Limited is a subsidiary of Henderson Development Limited.
Stock analysis
Henderson Land Development Company (0012) currently trades at HK$26.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$19.85, implying the stock looks roughly 32.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of HK$44.99 per share, and 3 of the 10 models we run sit above the HK$26.30 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at HK$3.55, and 7 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$14.89 (bear) to HK$24.81 (bull), the price of HK$26.30 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Henderson Land Development Company reported revenue of HK$25.7B in FY2025 versus HK$23.9B in FY2021, a compound +1.9%/yr. Reported net income was HK$5.7B in FY2025, compounding −19.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$130B (≈ $16.6B) · P/E ratio 21.8 · P/S ratio 4.78 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.6000 · Dividend yield 4.8% · Net margin 22.0% · Return on equity 1.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3%.
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −9% fair-value upside, at −25%, 0012 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$14.89Fair Value HK$19.85Bull HK$24.81
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.9% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−13.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−18.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−16% vs −13%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.51% → 17%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.8% a year for the price and +2.2% for the forecasts.
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Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Diversified · 133 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside−25% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)22% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)14% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth20% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.47× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Henderson Land Development Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0012
Frequently asked questions
Is Henderson Land Development Company (0012) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$19.85 versus a price of HK$26.30, about −25% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0012?
Our model-based fair value for Henderson Land Development Company is HK$19.85 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$26.30.
What is the quality score of 0012?
Henderson Land Development Company has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Henderson Land Development Company (0012)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$19.85 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$14.89, optimistic scenario HK$24.81. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Henderson Land Development Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$19.85, about −25% upside versus a price of HK$26.30 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$14.89, optimistic scenario HK$24.81. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Henderson Land Development Company (0012)?
Henderson Land Development Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$25.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Henderson Land Development Company pay a dividend?
Henderson Land Development Company currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.79% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Henderson Land Development Company (0012)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Henderson Land Development Company would have to grow free cash flow by +12.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0012 use?
Our models discount Henderson Land Development Company at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.14, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Henderson Land Development Company that is +12.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Henderson Land Development Company (0012) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Henderson Land Development Company grew +0.6 % a year. The price currently implies +12.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Henderson Land Development Company (0012) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Henderson Land Development Company (+12.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Henderson Land Development Company (0012)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.47 %: that much free cash flow Henderson Land Development Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Henderson Land Development Company (0012)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Henderson Land Development Company it is HK$19.85 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$26.30. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Henderson Land Development Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0012 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$26.30, fair value HK$19.85, a gap of about −25% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0012?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$26.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$19.85). For Henderson Land Development Company the two are HK$6.45 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Henderson Land Development Company worth?
The market values Henderson Land Development Company at about HK$130B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$26.30; our models calculate a fair value of HK$19.85 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0012?
Our models span a range for Henderson Land Development Company: cautious scenario HK$14.89, base HK$19.85, optimistic HK$24.81 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$26.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0012?
Henderson Land Development Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$19.85 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 0.4, P/S 5.1, EV/EBITDA 57.3.
What is the PEG ratio of 0012?
The PEG ratio of Henderson Land Development Company is 0.98 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Henderson Land Development Company (0012)?
Balance-sheet figures for Henderson Land Development Company (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 1.9%, debt of 0.47 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0012 from its 52-week high?
Henderson Land Development Company trades at HK$26.30, about 24% below its 52-week high of HK$34.54 and 6% above the low of HK$24.80 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$19.85 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Henderson Land Development Company?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Swiss Prime Site AG, Central Pattana Public Company, Prestige Estates Projects Limited, The Phoenix Mills Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Henderson Land Development Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$26.30, calculated fair value HK$19.85 (−25%), Quality Score 54/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0012 calculated?
We run Henderson Land Development Company through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$19.85, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Henderson Land Development Company itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Henderson Land Development Company (0012)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$26.30. Our model-based fair value is HK$19.85, about −25% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Henderson Land Development Company right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$24.81). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Henderson Land Development Company (0012) come from?
Earnings per share at Henderson Land Development Company grew −11.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.8 %, EBIT margin −4.2 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −7.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Henderson Land Development Company
How large is the market capitalisation of Henderson Land Development Company (0012)?
The market capitalisation of Henderson Land Development Company is HK$130B (≈ $16.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Henderson Land Development Company (0012)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Henderson Land Development Company is 4.78 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Henderson Land Development Company (0012)?
Earnings per share at Henderson Land Development Company are HK$0.6000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Henderson Land Development Company (0012)?
The dividend yield of Henderson Land Development Company is 4.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Henderson Land Development Company (0012)?
The net margin of Henderson Land Development Company is 22.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Henderson Land Development Company (0012)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Henderson Land Development Company is 1.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Henderson Land Development Company (0012)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Henderson Land Development Company is 1.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Henderson Land Development Company (0012)?
The operating margin of Henderson Land Development Company is 13.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Henderson Land Development Company (0012)?
Revenue at Henderson Land Development Company is growing +20.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Henderson Land Development Company (0012)?
Earnings per share at Henderson Land Development Company are growing −16.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Henderson Land Development Company (0012) carry?
The net debt of Henderson Land Development Company is HK$142B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 11.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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