Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd (0388) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd stock HK$307, price HK$395, that is 22.3% below the price, quality 77 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 12 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$185.10 – HK$462.83 · fair‑value band HK$136.95 – HK$445.23 · the HK$394.60 price screens above the HK$306.61 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 1, 2026.
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Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited, together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates stock and futures exchanges, and related clearing houses in Hong Kong, the United Kingdom, and Mainland China.
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It operates through Cash, Equity and Financial Derivatives, Commodities, and Data and Connectivity segments.
The Cash segment covers various equity products traded on the cash market platforms of the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited, as well as through the Shanghai-Hong Kong and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong stock connects; clearing, settlement and custodian, listing, depository, and nominee services; and other related activities.
Its Equity and Financial Derivatives segment provides and maintains trading and clearing platforms for a range of equity and financial derivative products, such as stock and equity index futures and options, derivative warrants, callable bull/bear contracts and warrants, and over the counter derivatives contracts.
The Commodities segment operates an exchange for the trading of base and ferrous metals futures and options contracts in the United Kingdom; and operates Qianhai Mercantile Exchange Co., Ltd., a commodity trading platform in Mainland China.
This segment also covers commodities contracts traded on Futures Exchange.
Its Data and Connectivity segment offers various services that provides access to the platform and infrastructure, as well as services of BayConnect Technology Company Limited; network, terminal user, data line and software sublicense, and hosting services; and sells market data relating to the Hong Kong cash and derivatives markets.
The company serves issuers and investors. Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Central, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd (0388) currently trades at HK$394.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$306.61, 22% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of HK$371.06 per share, and 1 of the 12 models we run sit above the HK$394.60 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at HK$39.73, and 11 of the 12 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$136.95 (bear) to HK$445.23 (bull), the price of HK$394.60 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd reported revenue of HK$29.2B in FY2025 versus HK$19.5B in FY2021, a compound +10.6%/yr. Reported net income was HK$17.8B in FY2025, compounding +9.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$500B (≈ $63.8B) Large · P/E ratio 25.2 · P/S ratio 15.9 · EPS (TTM) HK$15.65 · Dividend yield 3.5% · Net margin 62.9% · Return on equity 33.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 83 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −22%, 0388 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearHK$136.95Fair Value HK$306.61BullHK$445.23
Price HK$394.60 · Downside -22.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$1.44 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+68.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.1% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+12.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9.1% vs 11.4%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.80% → 73%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−5.6%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.6% a year for the price and +1.4% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: HKEX maintains a moderate moat through high margins and regulatory position, yet limited public data on innovation and human capital reduces signals of durable advantage.
Main risk: A large share of HKEX's market capitalisation and activity comes from mainland Chinese companies and investors via Stock Connect, so shifts in Chinese regulatory policy or economic conditions could reduce new listings and trading volumes.
Bull case: HKEX could broaden its appeal to non-Chinese issuers through listing reforms and tokenisation initiatives while maintaining its role as a gateway for quality Chinese companies.
Bear case: If Chinese regulatory scrutiny intensifies or economic conditions weaken further, fewer mainland firms might list or trade in Hong Kong, lowering volumes and revenues for the exchange and clearing businesses.
HKEX earns from both volatile trading fees and steadier listing, clearing and data services while rolling out AI indices and shifting toward a T+1 settlement cycle targeted for the second half of 2028. Near-term results face pressure from lower average daily turnover even with strong IPO activity. Our models see it as undervalued. Will the infrastructure and product upgrades deliver more stable revenue than trading volumes alone?
Compare Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Financial Data & Stock Exchanges · 49 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score77 · Above median
Fair Value upside−22.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)33.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets3.1% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)62.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)76.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)18.9% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Financial Data & Stock Exchanges median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0388
Frequently asked questions
Is Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd (0388) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$306.61 versus a price of HK$394.60, about 22% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0388?
Our model-based fair value for Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd is HK$306.61 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$394.60.
What is the quality score of 0388?
Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd has a Quality Score of 77/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd (0388)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$306.61 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$136.95, optimistic scenario HK$445.23. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$306.61, about 22% lower versus a price of HK$394.60 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$136.95, optimistic scenario HK$445.23. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd (0388)?
Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$31.5B (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
Does Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd pay a dividend?
Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 3.54% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd (0388)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -5.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.6 % per year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0388 use?
Our models discount Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.96, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd that is -5.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd (0388) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd grew +11.6 % a year. The price currently implies -5.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd (0388) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd (-5.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd (0388)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.19 %: that much free cash flow Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd (0388)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd it is HK$306.61 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of HK$394.60. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, 0388 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$394.60, fair value HK$306.61, a gap of about −22% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0388?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$394.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$306.61). For Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd the two are HK$87.99 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd worth?
The market values Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd at about HK$500B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is HK$394.60; our models calculate a fair value of HK$306.61 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0388?
Our models span a range for Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd: cautious scenario HK$136.95, base HK$306.61, optimistic HK$445.23 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price HK$394.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0388?
Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.2 (as of Nov 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$306.61 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 36.3. Other multiples: PEG 2.6, P/B 8.6, P/S 15.9, EV/EBITDA 13.2.
What is the PEG ratio of 0388?
The PEG ratio of Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd is 2.56 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 1, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd (0388)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity 33.6%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 77/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0388 from its 52-week high?
Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd trades at HK$394.60, about 8% below its 52-week high of HK$429.61 and 11% above the low of HK$355.87 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$306.61 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value S&P Global Inc, CME Group, Intercontinental Exchange, Inc, Moody's Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price HK$394.60, calculated fair value HK$306.61 (−22%), Quality Score 77/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0388 calculated?
We run Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$306.61, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd (0388)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was HK$394.60. Our model-based fair value is HK$306.61, about 22% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd right now?
A high-quality business (quality 77/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The model range is unusually wide (HK$136.95 to HK$445.23). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd (0388) come from?
Earnings per share at Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd grew +8.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.0 %, EBIT margin +1.3 %, tax rate +0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd (0388)?
The market capitalisation of Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd is HK$500B (≈ $63.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd (0388)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd is 15.9 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd (0388)?
Earnings per share at Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd are HK$15.65 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd (0388)?
The dividend yield of Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd is 3.5% (payout 89.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd (0388)?
The net margin of Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd is 62.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd (0388)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd is 33.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd (0388)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd is 3.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd (0388)?
The operating margin of Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd is 76.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd (0388)?
Revenue at Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd is growing +18.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +19.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd (0388)?
Earnings per share at Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd are growing +21.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd (0388) hold?
Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$181B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 1, 2026