Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A (301209) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A stock ¥5.68, price ¥33.29, that is 82.9% below the price, quality 52 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
50‑month range ¥5.86 – ¥91.80 · fair‑value band ¥4.57 – ¥6.75 · the ¥33.29 price screens above the ¥5.68 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Longkou Union Chemical Co., Ltd. engages in the production and sale of organic pigments in China and internationally. It offers squeeze base ink. The company's products are used in ink, plastic, coating, and cultural and educational supplies.
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Longkou Union Chemical Co., Ltd. was founded in 2007 and is based in Longkou, China.
Stock analysis
Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A (301209) currently trades at ¥33.29, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥5.68, 83% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥6.74 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the ¥33.29 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥0.9400, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥4.57 (bear) to ¥6.75 (bull), the price of ¥33.29 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A reported revenue of 512M CNY in FY2025 versus 552M CNY in FY2021, a compound −1.9%/yr. Reported net income was 52.6M CNY in FY2025, compounding −5.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 5.4B CNY (≈ $804M) Small · P/S ratio 15.0 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.0400 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 1.2% · Return on equity 0.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.6% · Operating margin 8.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 33 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 60% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −41% fair-value upside, at −83%, 301209 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥0.9400 to ¥14.41). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear¥4.57Fair Value ¥5.68Bull¥6.75
Price ¥33.29 · Downside -82.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF¥6.36¥7.96¥10.8282
Growth DCF¥6.53¥8.06¥10.5880
Owner Earnings¥5.93¥7.41¥10.0478
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF¥6.36¥7.96¥10.8282
Owner Earnings¥5.93¥7.41¥10.0478
5Y Revenue Exit¥5.12¥6.56¥8.6874
5Y EBITDA Exit¥5.08¥6.49¥8.4077
5Y P/E Exit¥5.43¥7.08¥9.1172
10Y Revenue Exit¥5.54¥6.68¥7.9068
10Y EBITDA Exit¥5.59¥6.64¥7.7470
10Y P/E Exit¥5.79¥6.99¥8.1565
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd¥2.28¥3.19¥3.7267
EPV¥3.82¥4.21¥4.5474
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM¥0.8600¥0.9400¥1.0569
DDM Multi-Stage¥0.8600¥1.06¥1.3067
Multiples
P/E Multiple¥4.28¥5.71¥7.1363
P/S Multiple¥3.67¥4.90¥6.1258
P/B Multiple¥10.81¥14.41¥18.0255
EV/EBIT¥5.91¥7.22¥8.5466
EV/EBITDA¥5.55¥6.74¥7.9467
EV/Revenue¥5.38¥6.85¥8.3154
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)¥2.15¥3.25¥4.0754
Growth DCF
Growth DCF¥6.53¥8.06¥10.5880
Rev-Margin DCF¥5.12¥6.69¥8.6974
Economic Profit
Residual Income¥3.84¥4.01¥4.3276
ROIC Compounder¥3.82¥4.21¥4.5472
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E¥3.05¥4.36¥5.6667
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−14.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−14.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 12%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 8.0%/yr over ~5Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+29.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +27.5% a year for the price.
Compare Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 728 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside−82.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)0.7% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets5.3% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)1.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)8.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)7.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.08× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
P/B6.97× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)10.41× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow55.8× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA76.4× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)39· sector 65
PAST (return on equity)3· sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)96· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)9· sector 31
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/301209
Frequently asked questions
Is Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A (301209) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥5.68 versus a price of ¥33.29, about 83% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 301209?
Our model-based fair value for Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A is ¥5.68 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥33.29.
What is the quality score of 301209?
Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A (301209)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥5.68 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥4.57, optimistic scenario ¥6.75. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥5.68, about 83% lower versus a price of ¥33.29 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥4.57, optimistic scenario ¥6.75. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A (301209)?
Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 514M CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A pay a dividend?
Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A currently shows a dividend yield of 0.45% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A (301209)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A would have to grow free cash flow by +29.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.6 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 301209 use?
Our models discount Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.53, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A that is +29.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A (301209) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A grew +1.6 % a year. The price currently implies +29.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A (301209) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A (+29.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A (301209)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.84 %: that much free cash flow Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A (301209)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A it is ¥5.68 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of ¥33.29. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, 301209 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥33.29, fair value ¥5.68, a gap of about −83% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 301209?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥33.29); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥5.68). For Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A the two are ¥27.61 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A worth?
The market values Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A at about 5.4B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is ¥33.29; our models calculate a fair value of ¥5.68 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 301209?
Our models span a range for Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A: cautious scenario ¥4.57, base ¥5.68, optimistic ¥6.75 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price ¥33.29). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A (301209)?
Balance-sheet figures for Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 0.7%, debt of 0.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 301209 from its 52-week high?
Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A trades at ¥33.29, about 60% below its 52-week high of ¥82.27 and at the low of ¥33.29 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥5.68 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, Ecolab Inc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Nan Ya Plastics Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price ¥33.29, calculated fair value ¥5.68 (−83%), Quality Score 52/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 301209 calculated?
We run Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥5.68, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0% above its aggregate fair value. Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A (301209)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was ¥33.29. Our model-based fair value is ¥5.68, about 83% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥6.75). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A
How large is the market capitalisation of Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A (301209)?
The market capitalisation of Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A is 5.4B CNY (≈ $804M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A (301209)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A is 15.0 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A (301209)?
Earnings per share at Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A are ¥0.0400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A (301209)?
The dividend yield of Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A is 0.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A (301209)?
The net margin of Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A is 1.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A (301209)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A is 0.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A (301209)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A is 8.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A (301209)?
The operating margin of Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A is 8.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A (301209)?
Revenue at Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A is growing +7.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A (301209)?
Earnings per share at Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A are growing −92.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A (301209) hold?
Longkou Union Chemical Co. Ltd. A holds more cash than debt, 308M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 5, 2026