Longkou Union Chemical Co (301209) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 9.3B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 9, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated 32 days ago
Share price +3.6% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 90% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥6.06). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (4 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
47‑month range ¥5.86 – ¥91.80 · fair‑value band ¥3.64 – ¥6.06 · the ¥49.48 price screens above the ¥4.85 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.
Analysis
Longkou Union Chemical Co (301209) currently trades at ¥49.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥4.85, implying the stock looks roughly 90.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Longkou Union Chemical Co generated revenue of 512M CNY at a net margin of 7.9%. It earns a return on equity of 5.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 308M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 9, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥3.64 (bear case) to ¥6.06 (bull case); at ¥49.48, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -58% fair-value upside, at -90%, 301209 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥6.96) versus Earnings-Based (¥3.19). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 19
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Longkou Union Chemical Co., Ltd. engages in the production and sale of organic pigments in China and internationally. It offers squeeze base ink. The company's products are used in ink, plastic, coating, and cultural and educational supplies. Longkou Union Chemical Co., Ltd. was founded in 2007 and is based in Longkou, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Longkou Union Chemical Co reported revenue of ¥512M in FY2025 versus ¥552M in FY2021, a compound −1.9%/yr. Reported net income was ¥52.6M in FY2025, compounding −5.9%/yr from FY2021.
301209 screens 90% overvalued. Compare with Linde plc →
Peer Group
Specialty Chemicals · 676 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 9, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Linde plc LIN | $489.98 | $222.03 | -55% |
| Nan Ya Plastics Corporation 1303 | 181.50 TWD | 255.83 TWD | +41% |
| Wanhua Chemical Group 600309 | ¥70.04 | ¥68.03 | -3% |
| Novozymes A/S NSISB | kr 428.20 | kr 179.66 | -58% |
| Asian Paints Limited ASIANPAINT | ₹2,689 | ₹668.81 | -75% |
| Solar Industries India Limited SOLARINDS | ₹18,236 | ₹2,793 | -85% |
| Pidilite Industries Limited PIDILITIND | ₹1,560 | ₹351.84 | -77% |
| PT Chandra Asri Pacific Tbk TPIA | 1,805 IDR | 2,888 IDR | +60% |
| Linde India Limited LINDEINDIA | ₹7,115 | ₹757.93 | -89% |
| Berger Paints India Limited BERGEPAINT | ₹493.70 | ₹164.29 | -67% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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