Arriyadh Development Co. (4150) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 8, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Arriyadh Development Co. stock SAR 9.87, price SAR 15.01, that is 34.3% below the price, quality 43 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 9.82 SAR – 36.50 SAR · fair‑value band 6.13 SAR – 12.40 SAR · the 15.01 SAR price screens above the 9.87 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Arriyadh Development Co. leases and manages residential and non-residential properties in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The company purchases, sells, manages, and leases land and real estate properties, as well as develops residential and commercial buildings.
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It also engages in wholesale and retail of new and used private cars, including ambulances, minibuses, and four-wheel drive vehicles. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Riyadh, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
Arriyadh Development Co. (4150) currently trades at 15.01 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 9.87 SAR, 34% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 17.62 SAR per share, and 4 of the 16 models we run sit above the 15.01 SAR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 3.30 SAR, and 12 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 6.13 SAR (bear) to 12.40 SAR (bull), the price of 15.01 SAR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Arriyadh Development Co. reported revenue of 384M SAR in FY2025 versus 251M SAR in FY2021, a compound +11.2%/yr. Reported net income was 296M SAR in FY2025, compounding −1.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 3.4B SAR (≈ $911M) Small · P/E ratio 10.0 · P/S ratio 8.15 · EPS (TTM) 1.50 SAR · Dividend yield 3.3% · Net margin 70.9% · Return on equity 7.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.1% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 55 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −51% fair-value upside, at −34%, 4150 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear6.13 SARFair Value 9.87 SARBull12.40 SAR
Price 15.01 SAR · Downside -34.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.8575 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF6.72 SAR9.83 SAR13.99 SAR80
Growth DCF6.70 SAR9.58 SAR13.24 SAR79
Residual Income13.25 SAR13.54 SAR14.59 SAR76
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF6.72 SAR9.83 SAR13.99 SAR80
5Y Revenue Exit7.21 SAR11.61 SAR17.30 SAR72
5Y EBITDA Exit9.79 SAR16.57 SAR24.65 SAR74
10Y Revenue Exit6.72 SAR10.40 SAR15.49 SAR66
10Y EBITDA Exit8.38 SAR13.49 SAR20.57 SAR67
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM3.62 SAR6.27 SAR8.34 SAR68
DDM Multi-Stage3.62 SAR5.85 SAR6.72 SAR67
Multiples
P/S Multiple8.01 SAR10.68 SAR13.34 SAR58
P/B Multiple20.40 SAR27.20 SAR34.01 SAR55
EV/EBIT14.06 SAR18.77 SAR23.48 SAR66
EV/EBITDA13.20 SAR17.62 SAR22.04 SAR67
EV/Revenue7.72 SAR11.06 SAR14.40 SAR53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)2.18 SAR3.30 SAR4.12 SAR55
Growth DCF
Growth DCF6.70 SAR9.58 SAR13.24 SAR79
Rev-Margin DCF7.21 SAR11.59 SAR16.81 SAR72
Economic Profit
Residual Income13.25 SAR13.54 SAR14.59 SAR76
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.86/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+19.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.0% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+3.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.3%
Per share before 2014divided by the spin-off factor 1.333
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.0.3% vs −1.2%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.101% → 52%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Saudi Arabia: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.7% a year for the price.
Compare Arriyadh Development Co. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Diversified · 114 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−34.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)7.3% · Above median
Return on assets6.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)70.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)1.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)1.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.3% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)10.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B0.83× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)8.15× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)20.5× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA15.2× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 37
FUTURE (revenue growth)7· sector 5
PAST (return on equity)29· sector 22
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 74
DIVIDEND (yield)67· sector 64
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Arriyadh Development Co. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4150
Frequently asked questions
Is Arriyadh Development Co. (4150) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 9.87 SAR versus a price of 15.01 SAR, about 34% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 4150?
Our model-based fair value for Arriyadh Development Co. is 9.87 SAR (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 15.01 SAR.
What is the quality score of 4150?
Arriyadh Development Co. has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Arriyadh Development Co. (4150)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 9.87 SAR (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario 6.13 SAR, optimistic scenario 12.40 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Arriyadh Development Co. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 9.87 SAR, about 34% lower versus a price of 15.01 SAR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 6.13 SAR, optimistic scenario 12.40 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Arriyadh Development Co. (4150)?
Arriyadh Development Co. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 420M SAR (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Arriyadh Development Co. pay a dividend?
Arriyadh Development Co. currently shows a dividend yield of 3.33% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Arriyadh Development Co. (4150) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Arriyadh Development Co. pays a dividend of 0.5 SAR per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.3%. The last ex-dividend date was Oct 5, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2010. The payout ratio is 33.3% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.43 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Arriyadh Development Co. (4150)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Arriyadh Development Co. would have to grow free cash flow by +7.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.1 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 4150 use?
Our models discount Arriyadh Development Co. at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Arriyadh Development Co. that is +7.9 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Arriyadh Development Co. (4150) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Arriyadh Development Co. grew +10.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +7.9 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Arriyadh Development Co. (4150) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Arriyadh Development Co. (+7.9 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Arriyadh Development Co. (4150)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.88 %: that much free cash flow Arriyadh Development Co. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Arriyadh Development Co. (4150)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Arriyadh Development Co. it is 9.87 SAR per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of 15.01 SAR. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Arriyadh Development Co. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, 4150 trades above its calculated fair value: price 15.01 SAR, fair value 9.87 SAR, a gap of about −34% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4150?
No. The price is what the market pays today (15.01 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (9.87 SAR). For Arriyadh Development Co. the two are 5.14 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Arriyadh Development Co. worth?
The market values Arriyadh Development Co. at about 3.4B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is 15.01 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 9.87 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4150?
Our models span a range for Arriyadh Development Co.: cautious scenario 6.13 SAR, base 9.87 SAR, optimistic 12.40 SAR per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price 15.01 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 4150?
Arriyadh Development Co. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.0 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 9.87 SAR is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2019 to 2025), reported earnings: 14.2. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 8.2, EV/EBITDA 15.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Arriyadh Development Co. (4150)?
Balance-sheet figures for Arriyadh Development Co. (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 7.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4150 from its 52-week high?
Arriyadh Development Co. trades at 15.01 SAR, about 46% below its 52-week high of 27.86 SAR and 5% above the low of 14.27 SAR (as of Nov 8, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 9.87 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Arriyadh Development Co.?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Swiss Prime Site AG, The Phoenix Mills Limited, Prestige Estates Projects Limited, Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Arriyadh Development Co. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price 15.01 SAR, calculated fair value 9.87 SAR (−34%), Quality Score 43/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4150 calculated?
We run Arriyadh Development Co. through 16 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 9.87 SAR builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Arriyadh Development Co. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Arriyadh Development Co. (4150)?
The closing price on Nov 8, 2026 was 15.01 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 9.87 SAR, about 34% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Arriyadh Development Co. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (12.40 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (6.13 SAR to 12.40 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Arriyadh Development Co. (4150) come from?
Earnings per share at Arriyadh Development Co. grew +0.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −7.4 %, EBIT margin +0.9 %, tax rate −0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +8.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Arriyadh Development Co.
How large is the market capitalisation of Arriyadh Development Co. (4150)?
The market capitalisation of Arriyadh Development Co. is 3.4B SAR (≈ $911M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Arriyadh Development Co. (4150)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Arriyadh Development Co. is 8.15 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Arriyadh Development Co. (4150)?
Earnings per share at Arriyadh Development Co. are 1.50 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Arriyadh Development Co. (4150)?
The dividend yield of Arriyadh Development Co. is 3.3% (payout 33.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Arriyadh Development Co. (4150)?
The net margin of Arriyadh Development Co. is 70.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Arriyadh Development Co. (4150)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Arriyadh Development Co. is 7.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Arriyadh Development Co. (4150)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Arriyadh Development Co. is 8.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Arriyadh Development Co. (4150)?
The operating margin of Arriyadh Development Co. is 1.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Arriyadh Development Co. (4150)?
Revenue at Arriyadh Development Co. is growing +1.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Arriyadh Development Co. (4150)?
Earnings per share at Arriyadh Development Co. are growing −16.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Arriyadh Development Co. (4150) carry?
The net debt of Arriyadh Development Co. is 18.2M SAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026