Arriyadh Development Co (4150) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · SA · Market cap 3.8B SAR
Fair value as of: Jul 31, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 10 days ago
Share price −9.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 24% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (15.61 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 9.44 SAR – 36.50 SAR · fair‑value band 11.22 SAR – 15.61 SAR · the 16.18 SAR price screens above the 12.25 SAR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 31, 2026.
Analysis
Arriyadh Development Co (4150) currently trades at 16.18 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 12.25 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 24.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Arriyadh Development Co generated revenue of 419M SAR at a net margin of 72.8%. Revenue grew 49.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.5%. Net debt stands at 18.2M SAR. Fundamentals as of Jul 31, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 11.22 SAR (bear case) to 15.61 SAR (bull case); at 16.18 SAR, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -30% fair-value upside, at -24%, 4150 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (17.83 SAR) versus Dividend Discount (7.47 SAR). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 31
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Arriyadh Development Co. leases and manages residential and non-residential properties in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The company purchases, sells, manages, and leases land and real estate properties, as well as develops residential and commercial buildings.
Full company description
Arriyadh Development Co. leases and manages residential and non-residential properties in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The company purchases, sells, manages, and leases land and real estate properties, as well as develops residential and commercial buildings. It also engages in wholesale and retail of new and used private cars, including ambulances, minibuses, and four-wheel drive vehicles. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Riyadh, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Arriyadh Development Co reported revenue of 384M SAR in FY2025 versus 251M SAR in FY2021, a compound +11.2%/yr. Reported net income was 296M SAR in FY2025, compounding −1.8%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue −6.5 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.9 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
4150 screens 24% overvalued. Compare with Swiss Prime Site AG →
Peer Group
Real Estate - Diversified · 137 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 31, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swiss Prime Site AG SPSN | CHF 129.20 | CHF 44.83 | -65% |
| Central Pattana Public Company CPN | 68.75 THB | 71.37 THB | +4% |
| Prestige Estates Projects Limited PRESTIGE | ₹1,733 | ₹645.21 | -63% |
| The Phoenix Mills Limited PHOENIXLTD | ₹2,076 | ₹701.74 | -66% |
| Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company 4325 | 16.39 SAR | 11.62 SAR | -29% |
| Fastighets AB BALDB | kr 50.42 | kr 70.70 | +40% |
| Hainan Airport Infrastructure Co 600515 | ¥2.89 | ¥0.3300 | -89% |
| Shenzhen Special Economic Zone Real Estate & Properties (Group) Co 000029 | ¥19.95 | ¥4.60 | -77% |
| Parque Arauco S.A PARAUCO | 3,940 CLP | 2,777 CLP | -30% |
| Corporación Inmobiliaria Vesta, S.A. VESTA | 59.57 MXN | 53.94 MXN | -9% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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