Arriyadh Development Co. (4150) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Arriyadh Development Co. SAR 9.87, price SAR 16.83, upside -41.4%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 9.67 SAR – 36.50 SAR · fair‑value band 6.13 SAR – 11.27 SAR · the 16.83 SAR price screens above the 9.87 SAR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Arriyadh Development Co. leases and manages residential and non-residential properties in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The company purchases, sells, manages, and leases land and real estate properties, as well as develops residential and commercial buildings.
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Arriyadh Development Co. leases and manages residential and non-residential properties in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The company purchases, sells, manages, and leases land and real estate properties, as well as develops residential and commercial buildings. It also engages in wholesale and retail of new and used private cars, including ambulances, minibuses, and four-wheel drive vehicles. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Riyadh, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
Arriyadh Development Co. (4150) currently trades at 16.83 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 9.87 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 70.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 17.83 SAR per share, and 4 of the 16 models we run sit above the 16.83 SAR price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 6.32 SAR, and 12 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 6.13 SAR (bear) to 11.27 SAR (bull), the price of 16.83 SAR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Arriyadh Development Co. reported revenue of 384M SAR in FY2025 versus 251M SAR in FY2021, a compound +11.2%/yr. Reported net income was 296M SAR in FY2025, compounding −1.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 3.8B SAR (≈ $1.0B) · P/E ratio 13.1 · P/S ratio 10.1 · EPS (TTM) 1.28 SAR · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 77.1% · Return on equity 7.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −9% fair-value upside, at −41%, 4150 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 6.13 SARFair Value 9.87 SARBull 11.27 SAR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.7563 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.86/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+19.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.0% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+1.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.0% vs −1%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.101% → 52%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+11.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Saudi Arabia: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.7% a year for the price.
Compare Arriyadh Development Co. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Diversified · 133 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score42 · Below median
Fair Value upside−42% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7% · Above median
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)71% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.5% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)13.1× · Pricier than median
P/B0.25× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)2.44× · Pricier than median
P/FCF6.1× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA4.4× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)7· sector 29
PAST (return on equity)29· sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 76
DIVIDEND (yield)30· sector 54
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Arriyadh Development Co. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4150
Frequently asked questions
Is Arriyadh Development Co. (4150) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 9.87 SAR versus a price of 16.83 SAR, about −41% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 4150?
Our model-based fair value for Arriyadh Development Co. is 9.87 SAR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 16.83 SAR.
What is the quality score of 4150?
Arriyadh Development Co. has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Arriyadh Development Co. (4150)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 9.87 SAR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario 6.13 SAR, optimistic scenario 11.27 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Arriyadh Development Co. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 9.87 SAR, about −41% upside versus a price of 16.83 SAR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 6.13 SAR, optimistic scenario 11.27 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Arriyadh Development Co. (4150)?
Arriyadh Development Co. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 420M SAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Arriyadh Development Co. pay a dividend?
Arriyadh Development Co. currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.49% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Arriyadh Development Co. (4150)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Arriyadh Development Co. would have to grow free cash flow by +11.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 4150 use?
Our models discount Arriyadh Development Co. at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Arriyadh Development Co. that is +11.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Arriyadh Development Co. (4150) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Arriyadh Development Co. grew +10.1 % a year. The price currently implies +11.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Arriyadh Development Co. (4150) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Arriyadh Development Co. (+11.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Arriyadh Development Co. (4150)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.35 %: that much free cash flow Arriyadh Development Co. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Arriyadh Development Co. (4150)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Arriyadh Development Co. it is 9.87 SAR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 16.83 SAR. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Arriyadh Development Co. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 4150 trades above its calculated fair value: price 16.83 SAR, fair value 9.87 SAR, a gap of about −41% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4150?
No. The price is what the market pays today (16.83 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (9.87 SAR). For Arriyadh Development Co. the two are 6.96 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Arriyadh Development Co. worth?
The market values Arriyadh Development Co. at about 3.8B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 16.83 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 9.87 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4150?
Our models span a range for Arriyadh Development Co.: cautious scenario 6.13 SAR, base 9.87 SAR, optimistic 11.27 SAR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 16.83 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 4150?
Arriyadh Development Co. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 9.87 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.3, P/S 2.4, EV/EBITDA 4.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Arriyadh Development Co. (4150)?
Balance-sheet figures for Arriyadh Development Co. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 7.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4150 from its 52-week high?
Arriyadh Development Co. trades at 16.83 SAR, about 46% below its 52-week high of 31.28 SAR and 9% above the low of 15.38 SAR (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 9.87 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Arriyadh Development Co.?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Swiss Prime Site AG, Central Pattana Public Company, Prestige Estates Projects Limited, The Phoenix Mills Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Arriyadh Development Co. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 16.83 SAR, calculated fair value 9.87 SAR (−41%), Quality Score 43/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4150 calculated?
We run Arriyadh Development Co. through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 9.87 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Arriyadh Development Co. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Arriyadh Development Co. (4150)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 16.83 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 9.87 SAR, about −41% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Arriyadh Development Co. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (11.27 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (6.13 SAR to 11.27 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Arriyadh Development Co. (4150) come from?
Earnings per share at Arriyadh Development Co. grew +0.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −7.4 %, EBIT margin +0.9 %, tax rate −0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +8.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Arriyadh Development Co.
How large is the market capitalisation of Arriyadh Development Co. (4150)?
The market capitalisation of Arriyadh Development Co. is 3.8B SAR (≈ $1.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Arriyadh Development Co. (4150)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Arriyadh Development Co. is 10.1 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Arriyadh Development Co. (4150)?
Earnings per share at Arriyadh Development Co. are 1.28 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Arriyadh Development Co. (4150)?
The dividend yield of Arriyadh Development Co. is 1.5% (payout 19.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Arriyadh Development Co. (4150)?
The net margin of Arriyadh Development Co. is 77.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Arriyadh Development Co. (4150)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Arriyadh Development Co. is 7.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Arriyadh Development Co. (4150)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Arriyadh Development Co. is 8.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Arriyadh Development Co. (4150)?
The operating margin of Arriyadh Development Co. is 1.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Arriyadh Development Co. (4150)?
Revenue at Arriyadh Development Co. is growing +1.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Arriyadh Development Co. (4150)?
Earnings per share at Arriyadh Development Co. are growing −16.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Arriyadh Development Co. (4150) carry?
The net debt of Arriyadh Development Co. is 18.2M SAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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