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Data-driven stock valuation

Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd (4526) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd stock TWD 15.15, price TWD 54.20, that is 72.0% below the price, quality 46 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 10 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Industrials TW · ISIN TW0004526009

TT Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd logo Thin data Nov 5, 2026

Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd

4526 · TW
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 72% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Revenue last quarter +20% vs. a year ago.
Quality 46/100
Loss over the last twelve months · -8.7% net margin (TTM) · fiscal year 2025 8.6%
1.8% dividend yield · Watch coverage
Fair value 15.15 TWD · Strongly overvalued
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −7.2 %/yr in TWD)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (3/11)
Narrow moat 15/100 · thin data
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

60.30 TWD 12.97 TWD Fair Value 15.15 TWD Jun 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 12.97 TWD – 60.30 TWD · fair‑value band 12.39 TWD – 18.67 TWD · the 54.20 TWD price screens above the 15.15 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.

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Company profile

Tongtai Machine & Tool Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells machine tools, computer components, computer numerical control lathes, and cutting centers in Taiwan, China, rest of Asia, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Equipment Manufacturing, Parts and Components, and Other segments.

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The company offers vertical, horizontal, 5-axis, 5-axis horizontal, and ultra sonic assisted machining center; tapping center; boring and milling, special purpose, and wheel machine; horizontal and vertical CNC lathe; and multi-tasking machining center.

It also provides PCB CNC drilling and routing machines.

In addition, it offers picosecond laser processing machines, UV laser marking machines, and UV laser processing machines; ultra-fast laser processing equipment comprising femtosecond laser processing machines and nanosecond ultrafast laser processing machines; and laser processing equipment for semiconductor applications.

Further it offers additive manufacturing machines consisting of metal powder direct energy deposition and subtractive manufacturing, metal powder, and metal powder bed fusion machines.

Additionally, it is involved in the electrical automation assembly and sales; commodity trading; international trade and re-export trade; investment holding; machine tool sales and repair services; and circuit board manufacturing and trading; and maintenance and after-sales services.

The company was incorporated in 1969 and is headquartered in Kaohsiung, Taiwan.

Stock analysis

Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd (4526) currently trades at 54.20 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 15.15 TWD, 72% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 30.99 TWD per share, and 0 of the 10 models we run sit above the 54.20 TWD price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 1.82 TWD, and 10 of the 10 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: 12.39 TWD (bear) to 18.67 TWD (bull), the price of 54.20 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd reported revenue of 5.4B TWD in FY2025 versus 9.6B TWD in FY2021, a compound −13.6%/yr. Reported net income was 459M TWD in FY2025, compounding +27.7%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 13.6B TWD (≈ $416M) Small · P/S ratio 2.20 · EPS (TTM) −1.77 TWD · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin −8.7% · Return on equity −9.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.5% (5-year average) · Operating margin −5.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 15 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 115% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −72%, 4526 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 12.39 TWD Fair Value 15.15 TWD Bull 18.67 TWD
Price 54.20 TWD · Downside -72.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Owner Earnings 6.08 TWD 7.83 TWD 10.78 TWD 77
Residual Income 15.91 TWD 17.25 TWD 19.24 TWD 76
Gordon GGM 1.60 TWD 1.73 TWD 1.91 TWD 69
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings 6.08 TWD 7.83 TWD 10.78 TWD 77
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 12.39 TWD 15.15 TWD 17.04 TWD 67
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 1.60 TWD 1.73 TWD 1.91 TWD 69
DDM Multi-Stage 1.60 TWD 1.91 TWD 2.32 TWD 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple 28.71 TWD 38.28 TWD 47.85 TWD 63
P/S Multiple 23.24 TWD 30.99 TWD 38.73 TWD 58
P/B Multiple 12.95 TWD 17.27 TWD 21.58 TWD 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 9.33 TWD 12.51 TWD 18.67 TWD 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income 15.91 TWD 17.25 TWD 19.24 TWD 76
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 20.27 TWD 28.96 TWD 37.65 TWD 67

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 31
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 66
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 0
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 36
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 94
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 44
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 77
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 91
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 73
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 14/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −5.2% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.8%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−13.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−15.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.32.6% vs 5.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−7% → −13%
2025 sits 574% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.5%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.

4526 screens overvalued: fair value 72% below the price. Compare with SIE →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 813 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 46 · Below median
Fair Value upside −72.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 3.7% · Above median
Net margin (12 months) −8.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −5.4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 20.2% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months) 1.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.23× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.85× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 2.64× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 30
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)88 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)37 · sector 29

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Cummins Inc CMI $450.07 $359.36 −20% vs 4526
SIE SIE €263.65 €149.56 −43% vs 4526
AMETEK, Inc AME $228.67 $125.74 −45% vs 4526
Illinois Tool Works Inc ITW $280.95 $154.30 −45% vs 4526
Sandvik AB SAND kr 357.40 kr 194.33 −46% vs 4526
Parker-Hannifin Corporation PH $917.79 $492.92 −46% vs 4526
Rockwell Automation, Inc ROK $375.86 $186.75 −50% vs 4526
Emerson Electric Co EMR $162.35 $79.99 −51% vs 4526
Eaton Corporation ETN $341.72 $156.90 −54% vs 4526
GE Vernova Inc GEV $774.11 $143.50 −81% vs 4526

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4526

Frequently asked questions

Is Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd (4526) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 15.15 TWD versus a price of 54.20 TWD, about 72% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 4526?
Our model-based fair value for Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd is 15.15 TWD (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 54.20 TWD.
What is the quality score of 4526?
Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd (4526)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 15.15 TWD (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario 12.39 TWD, optimistic scenario 18.67 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 15.15 TWD, about 72% lower versus a price of 54.20 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 12.39 TWD, optimistic scenario 18.67 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd (4526)?
Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 5.2B TWD (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 1.85% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd (4526) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd pays a dividend of 1.00 TWD per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.8%. The last ex-dividend date was Jul 30, 2026. The payout ratio is 54.9% of earnings. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd (4526)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd it is 15.15 TWD per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of 54.20 TWD. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, 4526 trades above its calculated fair value: price 54.20 TWD, fair value 15.15 TWD, a gap of about −72% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4526?
No. The price is what the market pays today (54.20 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (15.15 TWD). For Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd the two are 39.05 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd worth?
The market values Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd at about 13.6B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is 54.20 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 15.15 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4526?
Our models span a range for Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd: cautious scenario 12.39 TWD, base 15.15 TWD, optimistic 18.67 TWD per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price 54.20 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd (4526)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity −9.2%, debt of 0.23 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4526 from its 52-week high?
Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd trades at 54.20 TWD, about 10% below its 52-week high of 60.30 TWD and 115% above the low of 25.20 TWD (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 15.15 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value SIE, GE Vernova Inc, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price 54.20 TWD, calculated fair value 15.15 TWD (−72%), Quality Score 46/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4526 calculated?
We run Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd through 10 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 15.15 TWD builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd (4526)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was 54.20 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 15.15 TWD, about 72% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (18.67 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (46/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd (4526)?
The market capitalisation of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd is 13.6B TWD (≈ $416M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd (4526)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd is 2.20 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd (4526)?
Earnings per share at Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd are −1.77 TWD. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd (4526)?
The dividend yield of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd is 1.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd (4526)?
The net margin of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd is −8.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd (4526)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd is −9.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd (4526)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd is −2.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd (4526)?
The operating margin of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd is −5.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd (4526)?
Revenue at Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd is growing +20.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −13.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd (4526)?
Earnings per share at Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd are growing −89.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd (4526) generate?
The free cash flow of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd is −1.1B TWD (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd (4526) carry?
The net debt of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd is 3.8B TWD (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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