Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd (4526) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd TWD 15.15, price TWD 31.75, upside -52.3%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Tongtai Machine & Tool Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells machine tools, computer components, computer numerical control lathes, and cutting centers in Taiwan, China, rest of Asia, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Equipment Manufacturing, Parts and Components, and Other segments.
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Tongtai Machine & Tool Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells machine tools, computer components, computer numerical control lathes, and cutting centers in Taiwan, China, rest of Asia, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Equipment Manufacturing, Parts and Components, and Other segments. The company offers vertical, horizontal, 5-axis, 5-axis horizontal, and ultra sonic assisted machining center; tapping center; boring and milling, special purpose, and wheel machine; horizontal and vertical CNC lathe; and multi-tasking machining center. It also provides PCB CNC drilling and routing machines. In addition, it offers picosecond laser processing machines, UV laser marking machines, and UV laser processing machines; ultra-fast laser processing equipment comprising femtosecond laser processing machines and nanosecond ultrafast laser processing machines; and laser processing equipment for semiconductor applications. Further it offers additive manufacturing machines consisting of metal powder direct energy deposition and subtractive manufacturing, metal powder, and metal powder bed fusion machines. Additionally, it is involved in the electrical automation assembly and sales; commodity trading; international trade and re-export trade; investment holding; machine tool sales and repair services; and circuit board manufacturing and trading; and maintenance and after-sales services. The company was incorporated in 1969 and is headquartered in Kaohsiung, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd (4526) currently trades at 31.75 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 15.15 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 109.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 30.99 TWD per share, and 1 of the 10 models we run sit above the 31.75 TWD price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 12.74 TWD, and 9 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 12.39 TWD (bear) to 17.64 TWD (bull), the price of 31.75 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd reported revenue of 5.4B TWD in FY2025 versus 9.6B TWD in FY2021, a compound −13.6%/yr. Reported net income was 459M TWD in FY2025, compounding +27.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 7.8B TWD (≈ $246M) · P/E ratio 17.5 · P/S ratio 1.50 · EPS (TTM) 1.81 TWD · Dividend yield 0.6% · Net margin 8.6% · Return on equity 5.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −50% fair-value upside, at −52%, 4526 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 12.39 TWDFair Value 15.15 TWDBull 17.64 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.33 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.14/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −5.2% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−15.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−15.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.33% vs 6%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−7% → −13%
2025 sits 574% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.5%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Compare Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 828 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Fair Value upside−52% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5% · Below median
Return on assets−4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−16% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−29% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.23× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)17.5× · Cheapest 25%
P/B1.64× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)1.59× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 22
PAST (return on equity)21· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)88· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)13· sector 25
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4526
Frequently asked questions
Is Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd (4526) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 15.15 TWD versus a price of 31.75 TWD, about −52% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 4526?
Our model-based fair value for Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd is 15.15 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 31.75 TWD.
What is the quality score of 4526?
Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd (4526)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 15.15 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario 12.39 TWD, optimistic scenario 17.64 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 15.15 TWD, about −52% upside versus a price of 31.75 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 12.39 TWD, optimistic scenario 17.64 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd (4526)?
Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 4.9B TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.64% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd (4526)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd it is 15.15 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 31.75 TWD. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 4526 trades above its calculated fair value: price 31.75 TWD, fair value 15.15 TWD, a gap of about −52% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4526?
No. The price is what the market pays today (31.75 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (15.15 TWD). For Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd the two are 16.60 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd worth?
The market values Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd at about 7.8B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 31.75 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 15.15 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4526?
Our models span a range for Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd: cautious scenario 12.39 TWD, base 15.15 TWD, optimistic 17.64 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 31.75 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 4526?
Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 15.15 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.6, P/S 1.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd (4526)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 5.3%, debt of 0.23 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4526 from its 52-week high?
Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd trades at 31.75 TWD, about 29% below its 52-week high of 44.70 TWD and 26% above the low of 25.20 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 15.15 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 31.75 TWD, calculated fair value 15.15 TWD (−52%), Quality Score 50/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4526 calculated?
We run Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 15.15 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd (4526)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 31.75 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 15.15 TWD, about −52% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (17.64 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd (4526)?
The market capitalisation of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd is 7.8B TWD (≈ $246M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd (4526)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd is 1.50 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd (4526)?
Earnings per share at Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd are 1.81 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd (4526)?
The dividend yield of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd is 0.6% (payout 11.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd (4526)?
The net margin of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd is 8.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd (4526)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd is 5.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd (4526)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd is −2.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd (4526)?
The operating margin of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd is −16.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd (4526)?
Revenue at Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd is growing −29.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −13.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd (4526)?
Earnings per share at Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd are growing −89.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd (4526) generate?
The free cash flow of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd is −1.1B TWD (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd (4526) carry?
The net debt of Tong-Tai Machine Tool Co Ltd is 3.8B TWD (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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