Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd (600415) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd stock ¥28.50, price ¥12.15, upside +134.6%, quality 73 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥4.14 – ¥23.02 · fair‑value band ¥16.49 – ¥50.33 · the ¥12.15 price screens below the ¥28.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 1, 2026.
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Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co., Ltd., through its subsidiaries, develops, manages, and operates an online trading platform service in China.
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It offers a commodity display and trading ecosystem, including market operation, and self-operated trade; market support service ecosystem covering exhibitions and hotels; and trade fulfillment service ecosystem comprising Chinagoods online service platform, brand overseas services, warehousing and logistics, payment, credit investigation, factoring, and other businesses.
The company was founded in 1993 and is based in Yiwu, China. Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Yiwu China Commodities City Holdings Limited.
Stock analysis
Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd (600415) currently trades at ¥12.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥28.50, implying the stock looks roughly 57% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥29.20 per share, and 11 of the 16 models we run sit above the ¥12.15 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥5.77, and 5 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥16.49 (bear) to ¥50.33 (bull), the price of ¥12.15 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd reported revenue of 19.9B CNY in FY2025 versus 6.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound +34.8%/yr. Reported net income was 4.2B CNY in FY2025, compounding +33.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 66.6B CNY (≈ $10.0B) Mid · P/E ratio 14.8 · P/S ratio 3.13 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.8200 · Dividend yield 4.9% · Net margin 21.1% · Return on equity 21.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 71 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 30% fair-value upside, at 135%, 600415 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥16.49Fair Value ¥28.50Bull¥50.33
Price ¥12.15 · Upside +134.6%
Capped: our models arrive at a very high value here. We deliberately show a more cautious Fair Value.
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.1862 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+26.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+37.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+39.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.3% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+40.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+35.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.9%
Per share before 2004divided by the spin-off factor 1.0196
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.27.2% vs 19.4%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.39% → 24%
2025 sits 56% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−9.1%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+13.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −10.6% a year for the price and +11.6% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Limited evidence of advantage from moderate margins is offset by the Chinagoods platform adding buyers and AI tools, though physical operations suffer from lumpy cash flows.
Main risk: Lumpy cash flows from the timing of lease collections and property sales in its wholesale markets could obscure the underlying business trajectory and hit financial visibility.
The operator of Yiwu’s wholesale markets posted nearly flat nine-month profits, with third-quarter results hit by the timing of lease collections and property sales. Its Chinagoods platform keeps adding buyers and new AI tools even as physical operations face lumpy cash flows. Will steady market leasing underpin digital expansion, or will collection timing keep obscuring the business trajectory?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Footwear & Accessories · 94 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score73 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+134.6% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)21.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets9.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)21.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)25.0% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)4.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.14× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Footwear & Accessories median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600415
Frequently asked questions
Is Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd (600415) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥28.50 versus a price of ¥12.15, about +135% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 600415?
Our model-based fair value for Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd is ¥28.50 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥12.15.
What is the quality score of 600415?
Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 73/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd (600415)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥28.50 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥16.49, optimistic scenario ¥50.33. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥28.50, about +135% upside versus a price of ¥12.15 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥16.49, optimistic scenario ¥50.33. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd (600415)?
Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 22.5B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
Does Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 4.94% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd (600415)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -9.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +39.9 % per year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 600415 use?
Our models discount Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.11, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd that is -9.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd (600415) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd grew +39.9 % a year. The price currently implies -9.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd (600415) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd (-9.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd (600415)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.53 %: that much free cash flow Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd (600415)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd it is ¥28.50 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of ¥12.15. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, 600415 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥12.15, fair value ¥28.50, a gap of about +135% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 600415?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥12.15); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥28.50). For Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd the two are ¥16.35 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd worth?
The market values Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd at about 66.6B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is ¥12.15; our models calculate a fair value of ¥28.50 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 600415?
Our models span a range for Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥16.49, base ¥28.50, optimistic ¥50.33 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price ¥12.15). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 600415?
Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.8 (as of Nov 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥28.50 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 17.1 (reported for FY2025: 16.1). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 21.9. Other multiples: P/B 2.9, P/S 3.0, EV/EBITDA 10.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd (600415)?
Balance-sheet figures for Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity 21.1%, debt of 0.14 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 73/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 600415 from its 52-week high?
Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd trades at ¥12.15, about 32% below its 52-week high of ¥17.98 and 24% above the low of ¥9.76 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥28.50 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value NIKE, Inc, adidas AG, On Holding, Deckers Outdoor Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price ¥12.15, calculated fair value ¥28.50 (+135%), Quality Score 73/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 600415 calculated?
We run Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥28.50, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0% above its aggregate fair value. Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd currently trades 57% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd (600415)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was ¥12.15. Our model-based fair value is ¥28.50, about +135% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥16.49). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (¥16.49 to ¥50.33). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (73/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd (600415) come from?
Earnings per share at Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd grew +15.6 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.9 %, EBIT margin +2.9 %, tax rate +1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd (600415)?
The market capitalisation of Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd is 66.6B CNY (≈ $10.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd (600415)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd is 3.13 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd (600415)?
Earnings per share at Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd are ¥0.8200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd (600415)?
The dividend yield of Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd is 4.9% (payout 78.0%, on adjusted earnings, reported 73.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd (600415)?
The net margin of Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd is 21.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd (600415)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd is 21.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd (600415)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd is 7.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd (600415)?
Revenue at Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd is growing +25.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +37.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd (600415)?
Earnings per share at Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd are growing +12.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd (600415) hold?
Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 4.7B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 1, 2026