Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd (688239) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd stock ¥16.55, price ¥41.45, that is 60.1% below the price, quality 46 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥20.27 – ¥77.75 · fair‑value band ¥12.41 – ¥21.38 · the ¥41.45 price screens above the ¥16.55 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co., Ltd researches, develops, manufactures, and sells ring forgings in China. The company offers aerospace engine ring forgings.
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Its products used in aerospace rocket engines, missiles, ship-borne gas turbines, industrial gas turbines, energy, and other high-end equipment fields. Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co., Ltd was founded in 2006 and is based in Guiyang, China.
Stock analysis
Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd (688239) currently trades at ¥41.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥16.55, 60% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥41.19 per share, and 2 of the 16 models we run sit above the ¥41.45 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥1.66, and 14 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥12.41 (bear) to ¥21.38 (bull), the price of ¥41.45 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd reported revenue of 2.0B CNY in FY2025 versus 960M CNY in FY2021, a compound +20.6%/yr. Reported net income was 186M CNY in FY2025, compounding +7.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 7.6B CNY (≈ $1.1B) Small · P/E ratio 45.1 · P/S ratio 3.27 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.9200 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 9.2% · Return on equity 9.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.9% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −60%, 688239 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥12.41Fair Value ¥16.55Bull¥21.38
Price ¥41.45 · Downside -60.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.6582 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.49/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+13.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.13.0% vs 23.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 10%
Compare Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 238 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside−60.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.8% · Below median
Return on assets3.8% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)9.2% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)18.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)35.1% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.52× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)45.1× · Pricier than median
P/B3.79× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)3.27× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA19.8× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 65
PAST (return on equity)39· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)74· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)7· sector 19
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/688239
Frequently asked questions
Is Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd (688239) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥16.55 versus a price of ¥41.45, about 60% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 688239?
Our model-based fair value for Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd is ¥16.55 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥41.45.
What is the quality score of 688239?
Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd (688239)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥16.55 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥12.41, optimistic scenario ¥21.38. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥16.55, about 60% lower versus a price of ¥41.45 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥12.41, optimistic scenario ¥21.38. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd (688239)?
Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.3B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 0.36% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd (688239) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd pays a dividend of ¥0.15 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.4%. The last ex-dividend date was Jun 24, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2022. The payout ratio is 16.3% of earnings. Our assessment: Token dividend. At a yield of 0.4% the dividend is symbolic. On paper it is not fully covered by earnings or free cash flow, but at this size that hardly matters: even scrapping it entirely would cost less than 0.4% a year, and coverage ratios on amounts this small swing with ordinary working-capital movements. Judge this company on its business, not on its dividend.
What is the intrinsic value of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd (688239)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd it is ¥16.55 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of ¥41.45. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, 688239 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥41.45, fair value ¥16.55, a gap of about −60% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 688239?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥41.45); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥16.55). For Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd the two are ¥24.90 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd worth?
The market values Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd at about 7.6B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is ¥41.45; our models calculate a fair value of ¥16.55 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 688239?
Our models span a range for Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥12.41, base ¥16.55, optimistic ¥21.38 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price ¥41.45). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 688239?
Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 45.1 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥16.55 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.8, P/S 3.3, EV/EBITDA 19.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd (688239)?
Balance-sheet figures for Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 9.8%, debt of 0.52 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 688239 from its 52-week high?
Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd trades at ¥41.45, about 47% below its 52-week high of ¥77.75 and 7% above the low of ¥38.65 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥16.55 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Safran SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price ¥41.45, calculated fair value ¥16.55 (−60%), Quality Score 46/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 688239 calculated?
We run Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd through 16 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥16.55 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd (688239)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was ¥41.45. Our model-based fair value is ¥16.55, about 60% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥21.38). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (46/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Key figures of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd (688239)?
The market capitalisation of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd is 7.6B CNY (≈ $1.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd (688239)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd is 3.27 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd (688239)?
Earnings per share at Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd are ¥0.9200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 45.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd (688239)?
The dividend yield of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd is 0.4% (payout 16.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd (688239)?
The net margin of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd is 9.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd (688239)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd is 9.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd (688239)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd is 5.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd (688239)?
The operating margin of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd is 18.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd (688239)?
Revenue at Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd is growing +35.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd (688239)?
Earnings per share at Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd are growing −26.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd (688239) generate?
The free cash flow of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd is −88.7M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd (688239) carry?
The net debt of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd is 651M CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 6, 2026