Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd (688239) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd ¥16.42, price ¥56.88, upside -71.1%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥20.27 – ¥77.75 · fair‑value band ¥11.50 – ¥20.69 · the ¥56.88 price screens above the ¥16.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
Follow Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co., Ltd researches, develops, manufactures, and sells ring forgings in China. The company offers aerospace engine ring forgings. Its products used in aerospace rocket engines, missiles, ship-borne gas turbines, industrial gas turbines, energy, and other high-end equipment fields.
Show more
Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co., Ltd researches, develops, manufactures, and sells ring forgings in China. The company offers aerospace engine ring forgings. Its products used in aerospace rocket engines, missiles, ship-borne gas turbines, industrial gas turbines, energy, and other high-end equipment fields. Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co., Ltd was founded in 2006 and is based in Guiyang, China.
Stock analysis
Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd (688239) currently trades at ¥56.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥16.42, implying the stock looks roughly 246.4% overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥41.19 per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the ¥56.88 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥4.17, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥11.50 (bear) to ¥20.69 (bull), the price of ¥56.88 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd reported revenue of 2.0B CNY in FY2025 versus 960M CNY in FY2021, a compound +20.6%/yr. Reported net income was 186M CNY in FY2025, compounding +7.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 10.8B CNY (≈ $1.6B) · P/E ratio 56.9 · P/S ratio 5.20 · EPS (TTM) ¥1.00 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 9.1% · Return on equity 9.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 43% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −71%, 688239 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥11.50Fair Value ¥16.42Bull ¥20.69
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.6218 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.49/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+13.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.13% vs 23%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 10%
Compare Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 230 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside−71% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10% · Above median
Return on assets3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)9% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)16% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth26% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.52× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)56.9× · Pricier than median
P/B5.46× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)5.09× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA34.9× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 46
PAST (return on equity)38· sector 37
HEALTH (low debt)74· sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)5· sector 17
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/688239
Frequently asked questions
Is Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd (688239) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥16.42 versus a price of ¥56.88, about −71% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 688239?
Our model-based fair value for Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd is ¥16.42 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥56.88.
What is the quality score of 688239?
Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd (688239)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥16.42 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥11.50, optimistic scenario ¥20.69. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥16.42, about −71% upside versus a price of ¥56.88 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥11.50, optimistic scenario ¥20.69. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd (688239)?
Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.26% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd (688239)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd it is ¥16.42 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of ¥56.88. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, 688239 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥56.88, fair value ¥16.42, a gap of about −71% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 688239?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥56.88); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥16.42). For Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd the two are ¥40.46 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd worth?
The market values Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd at about 10.8B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is ¥56.88; our models calculate a fair value of ¥16.42 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 688239?
Our models span a range for Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥11.50, base ¥16.42, optimistic ¥20.69 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price ¥56.88). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 688239?
Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 56.9 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥16.42 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 5.5, P/S 5.1, EV/EBITDA 34.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd (688239)?
Balance-sheet figures for Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 9.6%, debt of 0.52 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 688239 from its 52-week high?
Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd trades at ¥56.88, about 27% below its 52-week high of ¥77.75 and 43% above the low of ¥39.83 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥16.42 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Safran SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price ¥56.88, calculated fair value ¥16.42 (−71%), Quality Score 46/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 688239 calculated?
We run Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥16.42, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd (688239)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was ¥56.88. Our model-based fair value is ¥16.42, about −71% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥20.69). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd (688239)?
The market capitalisation of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd is 10.8B CNY (≈ $1.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd (688239)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd is 5.20 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd (688239)?
Earnings per share at Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd are ¥1.00 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 56.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd (688239)?
The dividend yield of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd is 0.3% (payout 15.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd (688239)?
The net margin of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd is 9.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd (688239)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd is 9.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd (688239)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd is 5.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd (688239)?
The operating margin of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd is 16.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd (688239)?
Revenue at Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd is growing +25.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd (688239)?
Earnings per share at Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd are growing +27.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd (688239) generate?
The free cash flow of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd is −88.7M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd (688239) carry?
The net debt of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd is 651M CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd in the live analysis
One click puts Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
