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Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co (688239) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · CN · Market cap 10.6B CNY

GA Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co 688239 · SHG
Price¥46.00
Fair Value¥16.58
Upside-64.0%
Quality46/100
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Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 9.3% net margin
Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (5/12)
Moderate moat 52/100
Evidence: High Range ¥12.43 – ¥20.72 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated 29 days ago

Share price −10.9% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 64% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥20.72). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥77.96 ¥20.32 Fair Value ¥16.58 Jul 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥20.32 – ¥77.96 · fair‑value band ¥12.43 – ¥20.72 · the ¥46.00 price screens above the ¥16.58 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

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Analysis

Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co (688239) currently trades at ¥46.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥16.58, implying the stock looks roughly 64.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co generated revenue of 2.1B CNY at a net margin of 9.3%. Revenue grew 25.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.6%. Net debt stands at 651M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥12.43 (bear case) to ¥20.72 (bull case); at ¥46.00, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -59% fair-value upside, at -64%, 688239 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income ¥9.03 ¥9.93 ¥14.76 76
ROIC Compounder ¥7.19 ¥8.77 ¥10.14 72
Gordon GGM ¥2.54 ¥5.27 ¥8.37 70
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥6.63 ¥46.24 ¥64.90 54
Lynch FV ¥21.67 ¥30.95 ¥40.24 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥21.67 ¥30.95 ¥40.24 46
EPV ¥7.19 ¥8.77 ¥10.14 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥2.54 ¥5.27 ¥8.37 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥2.54 ¥4.45 ¥5.54 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥15.36 ¥20.48 ¥25.60 63
P/S Multiple ¥12.43 ¥16.58 ¥20.72 58
P/B Multiple ¥12.43 ¥16.58 ¥20.72 55
EV/EBIT ¥11.79 ¥16.46 ¥21.14 53
EV/EBITDA ¥12.67 ¥17.64 ¥22.60 54
EV/Revenue ¥7.78 ¥12.06 ¥16.35 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥5.23 ¥7.01 ¥10.47 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥9.03 ¥9.93 ¥14.76 76
ROIC Compounder ¥7.19 ¥8.77 ¥10.14 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥28.87 ¥41.25 ¥53.62 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥41.25) versus Dividend Discount (¥4.45). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 2.1B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +25.9%
Net margin 9.3%
Return on equity 9.6%
Free cash flow −88.7M CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 55.7
More key figures
Operating margin 19.4%
EPS (TTM) ¥1.00
EPS growth (YoY) +25.5%
Net debt 651M CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45

Profitability 44
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 31
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 60
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 11
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 47
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 39
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 53
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 80
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co., Ltd researches, develops, manufactures, and sells ring forgings in China. The company offers aerospace engine ring forgings. Its products used in aerospace rocket engines, missiles, ship-borne gas turbines, industrial gas turbines, energy, and other high-end equipment fields.

Full company description

Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co., Ltd researches, develops, manufactures, and sells ring forgings in China. The company offers aerospace engine ring forgings. Its products used in aerospace rocket engines, missiles, ship-borne gas turbines, industrial gas turbines, energy, and other high-end equipment fields. Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co., Ltd was founded in 2006 and is based in Guiyang, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co reported revenue of ¥2.0B in FY2025 versus ¥960M in FY2021, a compound +20.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥186M in FY2025, compounding +7.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 52/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
2.0B CNY
Latest YoY
+12.6%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+11.8%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+24.8%
Avg. growth/yr (12Y)
+21.3%
Revenue +20.6%/yr
FY21 ¥960M
FY22 ¥1.5B
FY23 ¥2.1B
FY24 ¥1.8B
FY25 ¥2.0B
Net income +7.5%/yr
FY21 ¥139M
FY22 ¥183M
FY23 ¥186M
FY24 ¥189M
FY25 ¥186M

688239 screens 64% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/688239

Peer Group

Aerospace & Defense · 226 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 46 · Below median
Fair Value upside −64% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 10% · Above median
Return on assets 5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 9% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 19% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 26% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.52× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 55.7× · Pricier than median
P/B 5.32× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 4.95× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 24.9× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 0
FUTURE 100 · sector 46
PAST 38 · sector 38
HEALTH 74 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 15

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Weapons Defense

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
General Electric Company GE $381.22 $116.71 -69%
RTX Corporation RTX $195.93 $88.37 -55%
Airbus SE 1AIR €213.25 €86.20 -60%
The Boeing Company BA $217.11 $48.20 -78%
China CSSC Holdings 600150 ¥34.31 ¥21.90 -36%
HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co 329180 466,000 KRW 272,966 KRW -41%
Hanwha Aerospace Co 012450 967,000 KRW 573,468 KRW -41%
ASELSAN Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi ASELS 337.50 TRY 130.70 TRY -61%
Saab AB SAABB kr 520.40 kr 212.84 -59%
Kongsberg Gruppen ASA KOG kr 277.50 kr 106.93 -61%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co (688239) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥16.58 versus a price of ¥46.00, about −64% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 688239?
Our model-based fair value for Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co is ¥16.58 (as of Jul 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥46.00.
What is the quality score of 688239?
Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co (688239)?
Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 12, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 688239?
The net profit margin of Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co is about 9.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 9.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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