Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd (8418) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd stock HK$0.18, price HK$0.49, that is 63.3% below the price, quality 68 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.3050 – HK$2.40 · fair‑value band HK$0.1100 – HK$0.2000 · the HK$0.4900 price screens above the HK$0.1800 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 2, 2026.
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Optima Automobile Group Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides after-market automotive services in Singapore and the People's Republic of China. It operates through three segments: After-market Automotive Services, Car Rental Services, and Automotive Supply Business.
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The After-market Automotive Services segment provides inspection, maintenance, and repair services. The Car Rental Services segment offers car rental services.
The Automotive Supply Business segment trades in motor vehicles; and supplies passenger car spare parts, accessories, and automotive equipment.
It also engages in the provision of franchise agency services, as well as spray painting services for motor vehicles; online marketplaces; supply of green environmental protection water energy technology; and trading of motor vehicles.
Optima Automobile Group Holdings Limited was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in Singapore.
Stock analysis
Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd (8418) currently trades at HK$0.4900, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1800, 63% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$0.1800 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$0.4900 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at HK$0.0200, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.1100 (bear) to HK$0.2000 (bull), the price of HK$0.4900 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd reported revenue of 49.4M SGD in FY2025 versus 57.1M SGD in FY2021, a compound −3.6%/yr. Reported net income was 106K SGD in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$417M (≈ $53.2M) Micro · P/E ratio 2.0 · Net margin 1.5% · Return on equity 9.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 21.1% · Operating margin 1.4% · Revenue (TTM) 41.4M SGD · Revenue growth (YoY) −37.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 80% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −63%, 8418 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (HK$0.0100 to HK$0.4700). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
BearHK$0.1100Fair Value HK$0.1800BullHK$0.2000
Price HK$0.4900 · Downside -63.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−43.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−15.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.1%
’16
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Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+58.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in SGD, Singapore: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +55.3% a year for the price.
Compare Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Parts · 656 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−63.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.3% · Above median
Return on assets0.7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)1.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)1.4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−37.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)2.0× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 31
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 34
PAST (return on equity)37· sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 39
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/8418
Frequently asked questions
Is Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd (8418) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.1800 versus a price of HK$0.4900, about 63% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 8418?
Our model-based fair value for Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd is HK$0.1800 (as of Nov 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.4900.
What is the quality score of 8418?
Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd (8418)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.1800 (as of Nov 2, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.1100, optimistic scenario HK$0.2000. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.1800, about 63% lower versus a price of HK$0.4900 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.1100, optimistic scenario HK$0.2000. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd (8418)?
Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 41.4M SGD (latest available figure, as of Nov 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd (8418)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +58.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 15.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +17.3 % per year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 8418 use?
Our models discount Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd at 15.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.89, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd that is +58.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (15.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd (8418) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd grew +17.3 % a year. The price currently implies +58.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd (8418) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd (+58.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd (8418)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.96 %: that much free cash flow Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (15.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd (8418)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd it is HK$0.1800 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026), against a price of HK$0.4900. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 2, 2026, 8418 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$0.4900, fair value HK$0.1800, a gap of about −63% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 8418?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.4900); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.1800). For Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd the two are HK$0.3100 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd worth?
The market values Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd at about HK$417M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 2, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.4900; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.1800 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 8418?
Our models span a range for Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.1100, base HK$0.1800, optimistic HK$0.2000 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026, price HK$0.4900). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 8418?
Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 2.0 (as of Nov 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$0.1800 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd (8418)?
Balance-sheet figures for Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd (as of Nov 2, 2026): return on equity 9.3%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 8418 from its 52-week high?
Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd trades at HK$0.4900, about 80% below its 52-week high of HK$2.40 and 21% above the low of HK$0.4050 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.1800 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value O'Reilly Automotive, Inc, AutoZone, Inc, Hyundai Mobis Co, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 2, 2026: price HK$0.4900, calculated fair value HK$0.1800 (−63%), Quality Score 68/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 8418 calculated?
We run Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.1800, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd (8418)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was HK$0.4900. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.1800, about 63% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.2000). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (HK$0.1100 to HK$0.2000) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd (8418)?
The market capitalisation of Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd is HK$417M (≈ $53.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the net margin of Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd (8418)?
The net margin of Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd is 1.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd (8418)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd is 9.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd (8418)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd is 21.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd (8418)?
The operating margin of Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd is 1.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd (8418)?
Revenue at Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd is growing −37.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −15.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd (8418)?
Earnings per share at Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd are growing −37.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd (8418) hold?
Optima Automobile Group Holding Ltd holds more cash than debt, 2.7M SGD net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 2, 2026