A2A S.p.A (A2A) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of A2A S.p.A stock €3.44, price €2.43, upside +41.4%, quality 47 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €0.7828 – €2.60 · fair‑value band €1.92 – €5.39 · the €2.43 price screens below the €3.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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A2A S.p.A. engages in the production, sale, and distribution of gas and electricity, and district heating in Italy and internationally. It generates electricity through hydroelectric, thermoelectric, photovoltaic, and wind plants; and sells and distributes gas.
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The company also engages in the production and sale of heat produced through district heating networks; waste management activities, including collection and street sweeping, treatment, disposal, and recovery of materials and energy; and the construction and management of integrated waste disposal plants and systems.
In addition, it offers integrated water cycle management services; and technical consultancy services relating to energy efficiency certificates.
Further, the company is involved in the management of public lighting systems and street lights, and water purification and sewer activities, as well as offers garbage collection, street sweeping, video surveillance, energy efficiency, and electric mobility services.
A2A S.p.A. is headquartered in Milan, Italy.
Stock analysis
A2A S.p.A (A2A) currently trades at €2.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €3.44, implying the stock looks roughly 29% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €4.17 per share, and 16 of the 25 models we run sit above the €2.43 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €1.37, and 9 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €1.92 (bear) to €5.39 (bull), the price of €2.43 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
A2A S.p.A reported revenue of €14.1B in FY2025 versus €11.4B in FY2021, a compound +5.5%/yr. Reported net income was €750M in FY2025, compounding +10.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €7.6B Mid · P/E ratio 11.1 · P/S ratio 0.49 · EPS (TTM) €0.2200 · Dividend yield 4.3% · Net margin 4.4% · Return on equity 11.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.9% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 39 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at 41%, A2A screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€1.92Fair Value €3.44Bull€5.39
Price €2.43 · Upside +41.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.0992 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.66/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+18.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.13.9% vs 17.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 9%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.1% a year for the price and −1.9% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: The business benefits from stable cash flows anchored in regulated networks and long-term contracts but faces constraints from elevated leverage and weak free cash flow.
Main risk: New Italian budget measures extending and raising the IRAP surcharge for energy firms could increase A2A's tax costs and reduce net profits in its regulated networks and generation segments.
Bull case: By securing renewed hydro concessions and expanding its role as energy partner for data centers A2A could offset any regulatory pressure through higher regulated network volumes and new long-term supply contracts.
Bear case: If hydro concessions are lost or heavily restricted and tax burdens rise further A2A's generation segment could shrink materially while margins in networks come under sustained pressure from higher costs.
A2A is directing more than a billion euros toward hydropower expansion while pressing for quicker decisions on plant concessions. Its cash flows stay anchored in regulated networks and long-term contracts, which recently earned an upgraded business risk profile from S&P. Will the new renewable assets generate enough growth to outweigh potential delays in approvals and shifts in other segments?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Diversified · 49 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Above median
Fair Value upside+41.4% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)11.3% · Above median
Return on assets3.5% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)4.4% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)6.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)31.4% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)4.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.05× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)11.1× · Cheapest 25%
P/B1.29× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)0.49× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)8.1× · Cheaper than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "A2A S.p.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/A2A
Frequently asked questions
Is A2A S.p.A (A2A) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €3.44 versus a price of €2.43, about +41% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of A2A?
Our model-based fair value for A2A S.p.A is €3.44 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €2.43.
What is the quality score of A2A?
A2A S.p.A has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for A2A S.p.A (A2A)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €3.44 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario €1.92, optimistic scenario €5.39. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the A2A S.p.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €3.44, about +41% upside versus a price of €2.43 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €1.92, optimistic scenario €5.39. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of A2A S.p.A (A2A)?
A2A S.p.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €15.5B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does A2A S.p.A pay a dividend?
A2A S.p.A currently shows a dividend yield of 4.28% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of A2A S.p.A (A2A) and when is the ex-dividend date?
A2A S.p.A pays a dividend of €0.104 per share a year, a dividend yield of 4.3%. The last ex-dividend date was May 18, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1999. The payout ratio is 51.2% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 47.3%). Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.89 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into A2A S.p.A (A2A)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, A2A S.p.A would have to grow free cash flow by +6.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.1 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of A2A use?
Our models discount A2A S.p.A at 11.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.79, country premium for Italy. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For A2A S.p.A that is +6.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has A2A S.p.A (A2A) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at A2A S.p.A grew +16.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +6.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of A2A S.p.A (A2A) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into A2A S.p.A (+6.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of A2A S.p.A (A2A)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.35 %: that much free cash flow A2A S.p.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of A2A S.p.A (A2A)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For A2A S.p.A it is €3.44 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of €2.43. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is A2A S.p.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, A2A trades below its calculated fair value: price €2.43, fair value €3.44, a gap of about +41% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of A2A?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€2.43); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€3.44). For A2A S.p.A the two are €1.01 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is A2A S.p.A worth?
The market values A2A S.p.A at about €7.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is €2.43; our models calculate a fair value of €3.44 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about A2A?
Our models span a range for A2A S.p.A: cautious scenario €1.92, base €3.44, optimistic €5.39 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price €2.43). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of A2A?
A2A S.p.A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.1 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €3.44 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 11.1 (reported for FY2025: 10.2). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 10.8. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 1.3, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 5.7.
What is the PEG ratio of A2A?
The PEG ratio of A2A S.p.A is 0.84 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of A2A S.p.A (A2A)?
Balance-sheet figures for A2A S.p.A (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 11.3%, debt of 1.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is A2A from its 52-week high?
A2A S.p.A trades at €2.43, about 6% below its 52-week high of €2.60 and 13% above the low of €2.15 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €3.44 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to A2A S.p.A?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Iberdrola, S.A, Enel SpA, Engie SA, E.ON SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is A2A S.p.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price €2.43, calculated fair value €3.44 (+41%), Quality Score 47/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of A2A calculated?
We run A2A S.p.A through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €3.44 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. A2A S.p.A currently trades 29% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of A2A S.p.A (A2A)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €2.43. Our model-based fair value is €3.44, about +41% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with A2A S.p.A right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (47/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide (€1.92 to €5.39). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Where does the earnings growth of A2A S.p.A (A2A) come from?
Earnings per share at A2A S.p.A grew +21.0 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +13.2 %, EBIT margin +2.4 %, tax rate +3.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of A2A S.p.A
How large is the market capitalisation of A2A S.p.A (A2A)?
The market capitalisation of A2A S.p.A is €7.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of A2A S.p.A (A2A)?
The price-to-sales ratio of A2A S.p.A is 0.49 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of A2A S.p.A (A2A)?
Earnings per share at A2A S.p.A are €0.2200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of A2A S.p.A (A2A)?
The dividend yield of A2A S.p.A is 4.3% (payout 51.2%, on adjusted earnings, reported 47.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of A2A S.p.A (A2A)?
The net margin of A2A S.p.A is 4.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of A2A S.p.A (A2A)?
The return on equity (ROE) of A2A S.p.A is 11.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of A2A S.p.A (A2A)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of A2A S.p.A is 4.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of A2A S.p.A (A2A)?
The operating margin of A2A S.p.A is 6.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at A2A S.p.A (A2A)?
Revenue at A2A S.p.A is growing +31.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −15.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at A2A S.p.A (A2A)?
Earnings per share at A2A S.p.A are growing −13.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does A2A S.p.A (A2A) carry?
The net debt of A2A S.p.A is €5.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026