FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 21, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED stock S$0.11, price S$0.97, that is 88.6% below the price, quality 39 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 3 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 0.9200 SGD – 1.24 SGD · fair‑value band 0.1100 SGD – 0.4400 SGD · the 0.9650 SGD price screens above the 0.1100 SGD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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First Sponsor Group Limited, an investment holding company, invests in, develops, and sells residential and commercial properties in the People's Republic of China, Europe, and internationally.
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The company operates through Property Development, Property Investment, Property Financing, and Hotel Operations segments. It provides interest-bearing loans to associates, joint ventures, and third parties.
The company also engages in the subscription of debt securities; operations and provision of property financing services; development and purchase of properties for sale; development and purchase of investment properties, including hotels for rental income; and development projects that include offices, retail, residential and hotel developments, as well as owns and operates hotels and a hotspring.
The company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Singapore.
Stock analysis
FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN) currently trades at 0.9650 SGD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.1100 SGD, 89% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 0.1200 SGD per share, and 1 of the 3 models we run sit above the 0.9650 SGD price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at 0.1100 SGD, and 2 of the 3 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 0.1100 SGD (bear) to 0.4400 SGD (bull), the price of 0.9650 SGD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED reported revenue of 292M SGD in FY2025 versus 589M SGD in FY2021, a compound −16.1%/yr. Reported net income was −78.8M SGD in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 1.1B SGD (≈ $851M) Small · P/S ratio 3.97 · EPS (TTM) −0.1800 SGD · Dividend yield 5.0% · Net margin −69.4% · Return on equity −8.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin −28.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 13 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 33% fair-value upside, at −89%, ADN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear0.1100 SGDFair Value 0.1100 SGDBull0.4400 SGD
Price 0.9650 SGD · Downside -88.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−12.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.1% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
69.4% (2020) → −16.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+23.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Singapore: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +21.1% a year for the price.
Compare FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 489 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−88.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−1.6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−69.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−28.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−11.2% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)5.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.64× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ADN
Frequently asked questions
Is FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 0.1100 SGD versus the last price from Oct 21, 2026 of 0.9650 SGD, about 89% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ADN?
Our model-based fair value for FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED is 0.1100 SGD (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Oct 21, 2026): 0.9650 SGD.
What is the quality score of ADN?
FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 0.1100 SGD (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario 0.1100 SGD, optimistic scenario 0.4400 SGD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 0.1100 SGD, about 89% lower versus the last price from Oct 21, 2026 of 0.9650 SGD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 0.1100 SGD, optimistic scenario 0.4400 SGD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN)?
FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 275M SGD (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED pay a dividend?
FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED currently shows a dividend yield of 4.97% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN) and when is the ex-dividend date?
FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED pays a dividend of 0.048 SGD per share a year, a dividend yield of 5.0%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 10, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2015. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.87 times. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What growth is priced into FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED would have to grow free cash flow by +23.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.4 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ADN use?
Our models discount FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.08, country premium for Singapore. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED that is +23.5 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED grew +7.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +23.5 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (+23.5 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.33 %: that much free cash flow FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED it is 0.1100 SGD per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of 0.9650 SGD. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models in 3 families (DCF Models, Asset-Based, Growth DCF).
Is FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, ADN trades above its calculated fair value: price 0.9650 SGD, fair value 0.1100 SGD, a gap of about −89% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ADN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (0.9650 SGD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (0.1100 SGD). For FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED the two are 0.8550 SGD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED worth?
The market values FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED at about 1.1B SGD (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is 0.9650 SGD; our models calculate a fair value of 0.1100 SGD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ADN?
Our models span a range for FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED: cautious scenario 0.1100 SGD, base 0.1100 SGD, optimistic 0.4400 SGD per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price 0.9650 SGD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN)?
Balance-sheet figures for FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity −8.8%, debt of 0.64 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ADN from its 52-week high?
FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED trades at 0.9650 SGD, about 6% below its 52-week high of 1.03 SGD and 5% above the low of 0.9200 SGD (as of Nov 3, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 0.1100 SGD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, China Resources Land Limited, CK Asset Holdings, DLF Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price 0.9650 SGD, calculated fair value 0.1100 SGD (−89%), Quality Score 39/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ADN calculated?
We run FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED through 3 models from 3 families: DCF Models, Asset-Based, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 0.1100 SGD builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN)?
The latest price we hold is from Oct 21, 2026 and stands at 0.9650 SGD. Our model-based fair value is 0.1100 SGD, about 89% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (0.4400 SGD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (0.1100 SGD to 0.4400 SGD). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED
How large is the market capitalisation of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN)?
The market capitalisation of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED is 1.1B SGD (≈ $851M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED is 3.97 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN)?
Earnings per share at FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED are −0.1800 SGD. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN)?
The dividend yield of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED is 5.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN)?
The net margin of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED is −69.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED is −8.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED is 2.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN)?
The operating margin of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED is −28.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN)?
Revenue at FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED is growing −11.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −12.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN)?
Earnings per share at FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED are growing +26.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN) carry?
The net debt of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED is 1.3B SGD (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 27.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 6, 2026