FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED S$0.12, price S$1.00, upside -88.0%, quality 39 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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First Sponsor Group Limited, an investment holding company, invests in, develops, and sells residential and commercial properties in the People's Republic of China, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through Property Development, Property Investment, Property Financing, and Hotel Operations segments.
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First Sponsor Group Limited, an investment holding company, invests in, develops, and sells residential and commercial properties in the People's Republic of China, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through Property Development, Property Investment, Property Financing, and Hotel Operations segments. It provides interest-bearing loans to associates, joint ventures, and third parties. The company also engages in the subscription of debt securities; operations and provision of property financing services; development and purchase of properties for sale; development and purchase of investment properties, including hotels for rental income; and development projects that include offices, retail, residential and hotel developments, as well as owns and operates hotels and a hotspring. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Singapore.
Stock analysis
FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN) currently trades at 1.00 SGD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.1200 SGD, implying the stock looks roughly 733.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 9 models at a data quality of 91/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: 0.1200 SGD (bear) to 0.4800 SGD (bull), the price of 1.00 SGD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED reported revenue of 292M SGD in FY2025 versus 589M SGD in FY2021, a compound −16.1%/yr. Reported net income was −78.8M SGD in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 1.1B SGD (≈ $882M) · P/S ratio 3.95 · EPS (TTM) −0.0800 SGD · Dividend yield 4.8% · Net margin −27.0% · Return on equity −3.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.0% · Operating margin −20.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 54% fair-value upside, at −88%, ADN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 0.1200 SGDFair Value 0.1200 SGDBull 0.4800 SGD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−12.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.1% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
69.4% (2020) → −16.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+23.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Singapore: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +21.4% a year for the price.
Compare FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 577 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Below median
Fair Value upside−88% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−27% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−21% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.64× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.40× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)3.03× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF18.7× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 49
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 12
HEALTH (low debt)68· sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)96· sector 56
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ADN
Frequently asked questions
Is FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 0.1200 SGD versus a price of 1.00 SGD, about −88% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ADN?
Our model-based fair value for FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED is 0.1200 SGD (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 1.00 SGD.
What is the quality score of ADN?
FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 0.1200 SGD (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 5 valuation models. Cautious scenario 0.1200 SGD, optimistic scenario 0.4800 SGD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 0.1200 SGD, about −88% upside versus a price of 1.00 SGD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 0.1200 SGD, optimistic scenario 0.4800 SGD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN)?
FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 292M SGD (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED pay a dividend?
FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.80% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED would have to grow free cash flow by +23.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ADN use?
Our models discount FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.04, country premium for Singapore. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED that is +23.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED grew +7.4 % a year. The price currently implies +23.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (+23.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.18 %: that much free cash flow FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED it is 0.1200 SGD per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of 1.00 SGD. It is the blended result of 5 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ADN trades above its calculated fair value: price 1.00 SGD, fair value 0.1200 SGD, a gap of about −88% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ADN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (1.00 SGD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (0.1200 SGD). For FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED the two are 0.8800 SGD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED worth?
The market values FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED at about 1.1B SGD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is 1.00 SGD; our models calculate a fair value of 0.1200 SGD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ADN?
Our models span a range for FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED: cautious scenario 0.1200 SGD, base 0.1200 SGD, optimistic 0.4800 SGD per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price 1.00 SGD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN)?
Balance-sheet figures for FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −3.5%, debt of 0.64 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ADN from its 52-week high?
FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED trades at 1.00 SGD, about 3% below its 52-week high of 1.03 SGD and 5% above the low of 0.9500 SGD (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 0.1200 SGD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, China Resources Land Limited, Vinhomes Joint Stock Company, CK Asset Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price 1.00 SGD, calculated fair value 0.1200 SGD (−88%), Quality Score 39/100, from 5 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ADN calculated?
We run FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED through 5 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 0.1200 SGD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 1.00 SGD. Our model-based fair value is 0.1200 SGD, about −88% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (0.4800 SGD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (0.1200 SGD to 0.4800 SGD). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED
How large is the market capitalisation of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN)?
The market capitalisation of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED is 1.1B SGD (≈ $882M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED is 3.95 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN)?
Earnings per share at FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED are −0.0800 SGD. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN)?
The dividend yield of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED is 4.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN)?
The net margin of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED is −27.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED is −3.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED is 2.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN)?
The operating margin of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED is −20.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN)?
Revenue at FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED is growing −4.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −12.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN)?
Earnings per share at FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED are growing +26.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED (ADN) carry?
The net debt of FIRST SPONSOR GROUP LIMITED is 1.3B SGD (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 27.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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