First Sponsor Group (ADN) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · SG · Market cap 1.2B SGD
Fair value as of: Aug 9, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price −2.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 46% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (0.6700 SGD). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 0.9307 SGD – 1.24 SGD · fair‑value band 0.4000 SGD – 0.6700 SGD · the 1.00 SGD price screens above the 0.5400 SGD fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 9, 2026.
Analysis
First Sponsor Group (ADN) currently trades at 1.00 SGD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.5400 SGD, implying the stock looks roughly 46.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, First Sponsor Group generated revenue of 292M SGD at a net margin of -27.0%. Revenue declined 4.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -3.5%. Net debt stands at 1.3B SGD. Fundamentals as of Aug 9, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 0.4000 SGD (bear case) to 0.6700 SGD (bull case); at 1.00 SGD, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 32% fair-value upside, at -46%, ADN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (1.30 SGD) versus Dividend Discount (0.4700 SGD). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
First Sponsor Group Limited, an investment holding company, invests in, develops, and sells residential and commercial properties in the People's Republic of China, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through Property Development, Property Investment, Property Financing, and Hotel Operations segments.
Full company description
First Sponsor Group Limited, an investment holding company, invests in, develops, and sells residential and commercial properties in the People's Republic of China, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through Property Development, Property Investment, Property Financing, and Hotel Operations segments. It provides interest-bearing loans to associates, joint ventures, and third parties. The company also engages in the subscription of debt securities; operations and provision of property financing services; development and purchase of properties for sale; development and purchase of investment properties, including hotels for rental income; and development projects that include offices, retail, residential and hotel developments, as well as owns and operates hotels and a hotspring. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Singapore.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
First Sponsor Group reported revenue of 292M SGD in FY2025 versus 589M SGD in FY2021, a compound −16.1%/yr. Reported net income was −78.8M SGD in FY2025.
ADN screens 46% overvalued. Compare with DLF Limited →
Peer Group
Real Estate - Development · 588 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 9, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| DLF Limited DLF | ₹657.75 | ₹159.49 | -76% |
| Lodha Developers Limited LODHA | ₹1,188 | ₹583.43 | -51% |
| PT Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua Tbk, PANI | 6,125 IDR | 1,330 IDR | -78% |
| Oberoi Realty Limited OBEROIRLTY | ₹1,925 | ₹1,183 | -39% |
| Godrej Properties Limited GODREJPROP | ₹2,102 | ₹1,044 | -50% |
| PT Jaya Real Property, Tbk., JRPT | 1,080 IDR | 1,674 IDR | +55% |
| PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk, BSDE | 555.00 IDR | 1,388 IDR | +150% |
| PT Sentul City Tbk, BKSL | 64.00 IDR | 84.16 IDR | +32% |
| PT Ciputra Development Tbk, CTRA | 555.00 IDR | 1,388 IDR | +150% |
| PT Duta Pertiwi Tbk DUTI | 4,100 IDR | 6,239 IDR | +52% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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