Airbus SE (AIR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 2, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Airbus SE stock €112, price €196, that is 42.8% below the price, quality 53 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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IndustrialsFR · Based in Netherlands · ISIN NL0000235190
ASBroad dataNov 2, 2026
Airbus SE
AIR · PA
Very expensive,in a downtrend
Our calculation puts a fair price 43% below what the stock costs today.
Healthy Growth(revenue 5y +8.0 %/yr in EUR)
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
1.6% dividend yield · Well covered
Wide moat69/100
Broad data
Quality 53/100
Thin margins · 8.1% net margin (TTM)
Mixed vs. peers(8/15)
Insider activity45/100
Fair value €112.14 · Strongly overvalued (−42.8%)
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩COMAC could capture narrowbody share🚩French environmental rules could delay factory upgrades🚩Chinese rare earth export curbs could disrupt supplies
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €82.42 – €216.21 · fair‑value band €78.50 – €140.18 · the €196.08 price screens above the €112.14 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 2, 2026.
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Airbus SE, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, and delivery of aeronautics and aerospace products, services, and solutions worldwide. It operates through three segments: Airbus, Airbus Helicopters, and Airbus Defence and Space.
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The Airbus segment develops, manufactures, markets, and sells commercial jet passenger aircraft, freighter aircraft, regional turboprop aircraft, and aircraft components, as well as provides aircraft conversion and related services.
The Airbus Helicopters segment develops, manufactures, markets, and sells civil and military helicopters; and provides uncrewed aerial systems and their related services.
The Airbus Defence and Space segment designs, develops, delivers, and supports crewed and uncrewed military air systems and related services.
This segment also offers civil and defence space systems for telecommunications, earth observations, navigation, and science and orbital systems; and services around data processing from platforms, secure communication, and cyber security.
The company was formerly known as Airbus Group SE and changed its name to Airbus SE in April 2017. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Leiden, the Netherlands.
Stock analysis
Airbus SE (AIR) currently trades at €196.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €112.14, 42.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €114.88 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the €196.08 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €39.37, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €78.50 (bear) to €140.18 (bull), the price of €196.08 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Airbus SE reported revenue of €73.4B in FY2025 versus €52.1B in FY2021, a compound +8.9%/yr. Reported net income was €5.2B in FY2025, compounding +5.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €155B Large · P/E ratio 26.1 · P/S ratio 2.02 · EPS (TTM) €7.51 · Dividend yield 1.6% · Net margin 8.1% · Return on equity 23.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 69 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −43%, AIR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€78.50Fair Value €112.14Bull€140.18
Price €196.08 · Downside -42.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€3.61 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.76/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.3% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+5.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4.3% vs 8.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−1% → 7%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+18.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+10.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.3% a year for the price and +7.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Scale and switching costs in the aerospace duopoly underpin a moderate moat, while mixed ownership and innovation signals form the main weakness.
Main risk: COMAC could win orders from Chinese and Asian airlines with state-backed pricing and take narrowbody customers from Airbus thereby pressuring prices and margins on the A320 family.
Bull case: Airbus could accelerate its own digital and manufacturing efficiencies while securing diversified supply chains and long-term orders outside China to maintain its lead over emerging rivals.
Bear case: If COMAC scales production and gains certifications while European regulatory delays persist and rare earth supplies tighten Airbus could lose significant market share in Asia and face sustained margin pressure on its core commercial programs.
Airbus projects the global freighter fleet to expand 46 percent by 2045, with most new units coming from passenger conversions and nearly a thousand factory-built aircraft. At the same time the company must speed up narrowbody and widebody deliveries to reach its annual target after a softer third quarter. Will the long-term cargo demand deliver more growth than near-term production pressures subtract?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 239 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Below median
Fair Value upside−42.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)23.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets3.9% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)8.1% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)9.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−2.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.41× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)26.1× · Cheaper than median
P/B5.93× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)2.02× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow35.0× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA16.9× · Cheaper than median
PEG1.40× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 59
PAST (return on equity)94· sector 40
HEALTH (low debt)80· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)33· sector 18
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Airbus SE Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AIR.PA
Frequently asked questions
Is Airbus SE (AIR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €112.14 versus a price of €196.08, about 43% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AIR?
Our model-based fair value for Airbus SE is €112.14 (as of Nov 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €196.08.
What is the quality score of AIR?
Airbus SE has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Airbus SE (AIR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €112.14 (as of Nov 2, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario €78.50, optimistic scenario €140.18. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Airbus SE stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €112.14, about 43% lower versus a price of €196.08 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €78.50, optimistic scenario €140.18. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Airbus SE (AIR)?
Airbus SE reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €76.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 2, 2026).
Does Airbus SE pay a dividend?
Airbus SE currently shows a dividend yield of 1.63% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Airbus SE (AIR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Airbus SE would have to grow free cash flow by +18.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.0 % per year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AIR use?
Our models discount Airbus SE at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.89, country premium for France. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Airbus SE that is +18.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Airbus SE (AIR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Airbus SE grew +8.0 % a year. The price currently implies +18.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Airbus SE (AIR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Airbus SE (+18.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Airbus SE (AIR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.86 %: that much free cash flow Airbus SE produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Airbus SE (AIR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Airbus SE it is €112.14 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026), against a price of €196.08. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Airbus SE stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 2, 2026, AIR trades above its calculated fair value: price €196.08, fair value €112.14, a gap of about −43% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AIR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€196.08); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€112.14). For Airbus SE the two are €83.94 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Airbus SE worth?
The market values Airbus SE at about €155B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 2, 2026). Per share that is €196.08; our models calculate a fair value of €112.14 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AIR?
Our models span a range for Airbus SE: cautious scenario €78.50, base €112.14, optimistic €140.18 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026, price €196.08). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AIR?
Airbus SE trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.1 (as of Nov 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €112.14 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 28.1. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 5.9, P/S 2.0, EV/EBITDA 16.9.
What is the PEG ratio of AIR?
The PEG ratio of Airbus SE is 1.40 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 2, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Airbus SE (AIR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Airbus SE (as of Nov 2, 2026): return on equity 23.5%, debt of 0.41 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AIR from its 52-week high?
Airbus SE trades at €196.08, about 9% below its 52-week high of €216.21 and 25% above the low of €156.29 (as of Nov 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €112.14 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Airbus SE?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Lockheed Martin Corporation, General Dynamics Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Airbus SE stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 2, 2026: price €196.08, calculated fair value €112.14 (−43%), Quality Score 53/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AIR calculated?
We run Airbus SE through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €112.14, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Airbus SE itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Airbus SE (AIR)?
The closing price on Nov 2, 2026 was €196.08. Our model-based fair value is €112.14, about 43% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Airbus SE right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€140.18). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Airbus SE (AIR) come from?
Earnings per share at Airbus SE grew +9.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.8 %, EBIT margin +5.1 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Airbus SE
How large is the market capitalisation of Airbus SE (AIR)?
The market capitalisation of Airbus SE is €155B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Airbus SE (AIR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Airbus SE is 2.02 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Airbus SE (AIR)?
Earnings per share at Airbus SE are €7.51 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Airbus SE (AIR)?
The dividend yield of Airbus SE is 1.6% (payout 42.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Airbus SE (AIR)?
The net margin of Airbus SE is 8.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Airbus SE (AIR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Airbus SE is 23.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Airbus SE (AIR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Airbus SE is 4.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Airbus SE (AIR)?
The operating margin of Airbus SE is 9.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Airbus SE (AIR)?
Revenue at Airbus SE is growing −2.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Airbus SE (AIR)?
Earnings per share at Airbus SE are growing +20.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Airbus SE (AIR) carry?
The net debt of Airbus SE is €2.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 2, 2026