Akzo Nobel NV (AKZA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Akzo Nobel NV stock €45.22, price €62.58, that is 27.7% below the price, quality 59 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €45.91 – €89.70 · fair‑value band €28.68 – €65.09 · the €62.58 price screens above the €45.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 2, 2026.
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Akzo Nobel N.V. produces and sells paints and coatings worldwide. It operates through Decorative Paints and Performance Coatings segments.
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The company offers decorative paints, including paints, enamels, varnishes, and surface preparation products; and a range of mixing machines, color concepts and advice, and training for applicators.
It also provides performance coatings that produces engineered coatings designed to deliver functional properties, such as corrosion and fouling control, anti-scratch performance, and fire protection to protect and enhance ships, cars, aircraft, yachts, and architectural components, consumer goods, and oil and gas facilities.
The company serves energy, packaging, infrastructure, and shipbuilding and maintenance industries, as well as general industries, such as agricultural and construction equipment, construction-related steel, metal fabrication, pipes, appliances, and transportation.
The company was formerly known as Akzo NV and changed its name to Akzo Nobel N.V. in 1994. Akzo Nobel N.V. was founded in 1646 and is headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Stock analysis
Akzo Nobel NV (AKZA) currently trades at €62.58, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €45.22, 28% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €48.07 per share, and 3 of the 24 models we run sit above the €62.58 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €17.00, and 21 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €28.68 (bear) to €65.09 (bull), the price of €62.58 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2007: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2007.
Akzo Nobel NV reported revenue of €10.2B in FY2025 versus €9.6B in FY2021, a compound +1.5%/yr. Reported net income was €635M in FY2025, compounding −6.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €10.7B Large · P/E ratio 16.5 · P/S ratio 1.09 · EPS (TTM) €3.79 · Dividend yield 3.2% · Net margin 6.6% · Return on equity 14.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −44% fair-value upside, at −28%, AKZA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€28.68Fair Value €45.22Bull€65.09
Price €62.58 · Downside -27.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€1.53 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2007: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2007.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −3.7% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+1.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.2.4% vs −1.6%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 8%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.2% a year for the price and −0.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Focused leadership in coatings and services after targeted divestments forms the main strength, while limited external signals on moat durability and narrower regional reach remain the key weakness.
Main risk: Backward-looking raw-material contracts and reliance on third-party distributors could limit AkzoNobel's ability to pass on cost increases promptly compared with integrated peers such as Sherwin-Williams and in China due to multi-sourcing, squeezing margins.
Bull case: By accelerating AI-driven R&D and capturing merger synergies AkzoNobel could shorten reformulation cycles and strengthen pricing discipline through scale and integrated channels.
Bear case: Persistent pricing lags and regulatory reformulation burdens could erode margins and leave the company less resilient to raw-material shocks and regional competitive intensity.
AkzoNobel is divesting its decorative paints operations across several Southeast Asian markets as part of its ongoing portfolio review. The step leaves the coatings activities and global services intact while the company readies its merger with Axalta. Does this sharper concentration on leadership positions in specialty chemicals strengthen the business model or reduce its resilience across regions?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 726 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside−27.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)14.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets4.6% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)6.6% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)−1.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−0.4% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.75× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)16.5× · Cheaper than median
P/B2.30× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)1.09× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow17.7× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA12.2× · Pricier than median
PEG2.53× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 67
PAST (return on equity)59· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)63· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)63· sector 30
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Akzo Nobel NV Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AKZA
Frequently asked questions
Is Akzo Nobel NV (AKZA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €45.22 versus a price of €62.58, about 28% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AKZA?
Our model-based fair value for Akzo Nobel NV is €45.22 (as of Nov 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €62.58.
What is the quality score of AKZA?
Akzo Nobel NV has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Akzo Nobel NV (AKZA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €45.22 (as of Nov 2, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €28.68, optimistic scenario €65.09. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Akzo Nobel NV stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €45.22, about 28% lower versus a price of €62.58 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €28.68, optimistic scenario €65.09. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Akzo Nobel NV (AKZA)?
Akzo Nobel NV reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €9.9B (latest available figure, as of Nov 2, 2026).
Does Akzo Nobel NV pay a dividend?
Akzo Nobel NV currently shows a dividend yield of 3.16% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Akzo Nobel NV (AKZA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Akzo Nobel NV would have to grow free cash flow by +10.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.6 % per year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AKZA use?
Our models discount Akzo Nobel NV at 9.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.17, country premium for Netherlands. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Akzo Nobel NV that is +10.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Akzo Nobel NV (AKZA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Akzo Nobel NV grew +3.6 % a year. The price currently implies +10.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Akzo Nobel NV (AKZA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Akzo Nobel NV (+10.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Akzo Nobel NV (AKZA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.65 %: that much free cash flow Akzo Nobel NV produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Akzo Nobel NV (AKZA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Akzo Nobel NV it is €45.22 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026), against a price of €62.58. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Akzo Nobel NV stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 2, 2026, AKZA trades above its calculated fair value: price €62.58, fair value €45.22, a gap of about −28% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AKZA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€62.58); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€45.22). For Akzo Nobel NV the two are €17.36 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Akzo Nobel NV worth?
The market values Akzo Nobel NV at about €10.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 2, 2026). Per share that is €62.58; our models calculate a fair value of €45.22 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AKZA?
Our models span a range for Akzo Nobel NV: cautious scenario €28.68, base €45.22, optimistic €65.09 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026, price €62.58). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AKZA?
Akzo Nobel NV trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.5 (as of Nov 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €45.22 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2019 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 26.8. Other multiples: PEG 2.5, P/B 2.3, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 12.2.
What is the PEG ratio of AKZA?
The PEG ratio of Akzo Nobel NV is 2.53 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 2, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Akzo Nobel NV (AKZA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Akzo Nobel NV (as of Nov 2, 2026): return on equity 14.9%, debt of 0.75 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AKZA from its 52-week high?
Akzo Nobel NV trades at €62.58, about 6% below its 52-week high of €66.44 and 36% above the low of €45.91 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €45.22 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Akzo Nobel NV?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, Ecolab Inc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Nan Ya Plastics Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Akzo Nobel NV stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 2, 2026: price €62.58, calculated fair value €45.22 (−28%), Quality Score 59/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AKZA calculated?
We run Akzo Nobel NV through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €45.22, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Akzo Nobel NV itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Akzo Nobel NV (AKZA)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was €62.58. Our model-based fair value is €45.22, about 28% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Akzo Nobel NV right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€28.68 to €65.09) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Akzo Nobel NV (AKZA) come from?
Earnings per share at Akzo Nobel NV grew −2.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −0.7 %, EBIT margin −1.0 %, tax rate −0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Akzo Nobel NV
How large is the market capitalisation of Akzo Nobel NV (AKZA)?
The market capitalisation of Akzo Nobel NV is €10.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Akzo Nobel NV (AKZA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Akzo Nobel NV is 1.09 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Akzo Nobel NV (AKZA)?
Earnings per share at Akzo Nobel NV are €3.79 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Akzo Nobel NV (AKZA)?
The dividend yield of Akzo Nobel NV is 3.2% (payout 52.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Akzo Nobel NV (AKZA)?
The net margin of Akzo Nobel NV is 6.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Akzo Nobel NV (AKZA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Akzo Nobel NV is 14.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Akzo Nobel NV (AKZA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Akzo Nobel NV is 6.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Akzo Nobel NV (AKZA)?
The operating margin of Akzo Nobel NV is −1.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Akzo Nobel NV (AKZA)?
Revenue at Akzo Nobel NV is growing −0.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Akzo Nobel NV (AKZA)?
Earnings per share at Akzo Nobel NV are growing +12.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Akzo Nobel NV (AKZA) carry?
The net debt of Akzo Nobel NV is €3.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 2, 2026