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Aemetis Inc (AMTX) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Aemetis Inc stock $1.66, price $1.59, upside +4.4%, quality 17 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Basic Materials US

AI Aemetis Inc logo Thin data Nov 11, 2026

Aemetis Inc

AMTX · US
Fairly valued, weak quality

The stock costs about what our calculation considers fair.

Ranks above peers (5/8)
Revenue last quarter +49% vs. a year ago.
Fair value $1.66 · Fairly valued
Negative equity (buybacks among others)
Insiders sold $20,500 (6M)
Quality 17/100
Weak Growth (revenue 3y −6.8 %/yr in USD)
Loss-making · -12.0% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Narrow moat 34/100 · thin data
Thin data
⟳ CyclicalEstimate
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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$22.44 $1.15 Fair Value $1.66 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 11, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.15 – $22.44 · fair‑value band $1.24 – $2.07 · the $1.59 price screens below the $1.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 11, 2026.

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Company profile

Aemetis, Inc. operates as a renewable natural gas and renewable fuels company. The company operates through California Ethanol, California Dairy Renewable Natural Gas, and India Biodiesel segments.

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It engages in the operation, acquisition, development, and commercialization of low and negative carbon intensity products and technologies that replace fossil fuel products.

The company also produces and sells ethanol; wet distillers grains, distillers corn oil, and condensed distillers solubles to dairies and feedlots as animal feed; and distilled biodiesel and refined glycerin products. In addition, it produces biogas from dairy waste.

Aemetis, Inc. is headquartered in Cupertino, California.

Stock analysis

Aemetis Inc (AMTX) currently trades at $1.59, while our estimate is $1.66, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 4.2%).

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: $1.24 (bear) to $2.07 (bull), the price of $1.59 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 17/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Aemetis Inc reported revenue of $208M in FY2025 versus $212M in FY2021, a compound −0.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$77.0M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $126M Micro · P/S ratio 0.49 · EPS (TTM) $−0.4100 · Net margin −12.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −14.3% (5-year average) · Operating margin 23.7% · Revenue (TTM) $259M · Revenue growth (YoY) +48.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 34 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 57% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −41% fair-value upside, at 4%, AMTX screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value

Bear $1.24 Fair Value $1.66 Bull $2.07
Price $1.59 · Upside +4.4%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 17/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 14
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 48
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 6
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 2
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 51
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 0
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 16
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 12
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 1
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $20,500 and none bought.

  • SaleTimothy Alan SimonDirector10,000 shares at $2.05$20,500Jun 10, 2026

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 10, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 8/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−22.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.6% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+34.9%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−3.7% (2020) → −17.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 758 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/8 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 17 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +4.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets −29.6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −12.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 23.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 48.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper

P/B Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (12 months) 0.49× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 6.6× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)39 · sector 4
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 65
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 25
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 30

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Nan Ya Plastics Corporation 1303 289.00 TWD 462.40 TWD +60% vs AMTX
Wanhua Chemical Group 600309 ¥71.74 ¥68.03 −5% vs AMTX
Linde plc LIN $521.78 $446.62 −14% vs AMTX
PPG Industries, Inc PPG $124.42 $77.68 −38% vs AMTX
DSM-Firmenich AG DSFIR CHF 97.25 CHF 57.84 −41% vs AMTX
Sika AG SIKA CHF 194.00 CHF 98.89 −49% vs AMTX
The Sherwin-Williams Company SHW $355.34 $146.37 −59% vs AMTX
Givaudan SA GIVN CHF 4,048 CHF 1,554 −62% vs AMTX
Ecolab Inc ECL $306.03 $96.56 −68% vs AMTX
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc APD $312.25 $75.33 −76% vs AMTX

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Aemetis Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Aemetis Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AMTX

Frequently asked questions

Is Aemetis Inc (AMTX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 11, 2026, our estimate of fair value is $1.66 versus a price of $1.59, about +4% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of AMTX?
Our estimate for Aemetis Inc is $1.66 (as of Nov 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.59.
What is the quality score of AMTX?
Aemetis Inc has a Quality Score of 17/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aemetis Inc (AMTX)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of $1.66 (as of Nov 11, 2026). Cautious scenario $1.24, optimistic scenario $2.07. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Aemetis Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at $1.66, about +4% upside versus a price of $1.59 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $1.24, optimistic scenario $2.07. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aemetis Inc (AMTX)?
Aemetis Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $259M (latest available figure, as of Nov 11, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Aemetis Inc (AMTX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aemetis Inc it is $1.66 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026), against a price of $1.59.
Is Aemetis Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 11, 2026, AMTX trades below its calculated fair value: price $1.59, fair value $1.66, a gap of about +4% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AMTX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.59); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.66). For Aemetis Inc the two are $0.0700 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aemetis Inc worth?
The market values Aemetis Inc at about $126M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 11, 2026). Per share that is $1.59; our models calculate a fair value of $1.66 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AMTX?
Our models span a range for Aemetis Inc: cautious scenario $1.24, base $1.66, optimistic $2.07 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026, price $1.59). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aemetis Inc (AMTX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aemetis Inc (as of Nov 11, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 17/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AMTX from its 52-week high?
Aemetis Inc trades at $1.59, about 57% below its 52-week high of $3.66 and 38% above the low of $1.15 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.66 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aemetis Inc?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, Ecolab Inc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Nan Ya Plastics Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aemetis Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 11, 2026: price $1.59, calculated fair value $1.66 (+4%), Quality Score 17/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Aemetis Inc currently trades 4% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aemetis Inc (AMTX)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was $1.59. Our estimate is $1.66, about +4% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aemetis Inc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Aemetis Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Aemetis Inc (AMTX)?
The market capitalisation of Aemetis Inc is $126M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aemetis Inc (AMTX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aemetis Inc is 0.49 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aemetis Inc (AMTX)?
Earnings per share at Aemetis Inc are $−0.4100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Aemetis Inc (AMTX)?
The net margin of Aemetis Inc is −12.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aemetis Inc (AMTX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aemetis Inc is −14.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aemetis Inc (AMTX)?
The operating margin of Aemetis Inc is 23.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aemetis Inc (AMTX)?
Revenue at Aemetis Inc is growing +48.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Aemetis Inc (AMTX) generate?
The free cash flow of Aemetis Inc is −$22.7M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Aemetis Inc (AMTX) carry?
The net debt of Aemetis Inc is $377M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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