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Aemetis Inc (AMTX) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Aemetis Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Valuation from Sep 13, 2026. With the latest figures (losses, negative cash flow), a fair value can no longer be calculated.
  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Basic Materials · US · ISIN US00770K2024

AI Aemetis Inc logo Thin data Sep 13, 2026

Aemetis Inc

AMTX · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $0.5355 · Strongly overvalued (−72%)
!Quality 16/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +4.7 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -33.8% net margin (TTM)
!Negative equity (buybacks among others) · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/7)
!Narrow moat 10/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$22.44 $1.25 Fair Value $0.5355 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.25 – $22.44 · fair‑value band $0.3400 – $0.6715 · the $1.90 price screens above the $0.5355 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

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Company profile

Aemetis, Inc. operates as a renewable natural gas and renewable fuels company. The company operates through California Ethanol, California Dairy Renewable Natural Gas, and India Biodiesel segments.

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Aemetis, Inc. operates as a renewable natural gas and renewable fuels company. The company operates through California Ethanol, California Dairy Renewable Natural Gas, and India Biodiesel segments. It engages in the operation, acquisition, development, and commercialization of low and negative carbon intensity products and technologies that replace fossil fuel products. The company also produces and sells ethanol; wet distillers grains, distillers corn oil, and condensed distillers solubles to dairies and feedlots as animal feed; and distilled biodiesel and refined glycerin products. In addition, it produces biogas from dairy waste. Aemetis, Inc. is headquartered in Cupertino, California.

Stock analysis

Aemetis Inc (AMTX) currently trades at $1.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.5355, implying the stock looks roughly 254.9% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $0.3400 (bear) to $0.6715 (bull), the price of $1.90 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 16/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Aemetis Inc reported revenue of $208M in FY2025 versus $212M in FY2021, a compound −0.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$77.0M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $135M · P/S ratio 0.61 · EPS (TTM) $−1.14 · Net margin −37.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −14.3% · Operating margin −11.6% · Revenue (TTM) $220M · Revenue growth (YoY) +27.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −40% fair-value upside, at −72%, AMTX screens richer than that median.

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 16/100

Of which business quality 17 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 20

Profitability 14
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 48
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 6
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 2
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 51
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 16
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 25
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 17
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 8/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−22.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.6% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+34.9%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−3.7% (2020) → −17.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

AMTX screens 255% overvalued. Compare with Linde plc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 709 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 17 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −72% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets −7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −34% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −12% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 27% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper

P/B Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 0.62× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 21
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 29

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Linde plc LIN $469.72 $441.28 −6%
The Sherwin-Williams Company SHW $326.46 $148.97 −54%
Ecolab Inc ECL $276.72 $96.18 −65%
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc APD $286.97 $122.14 −57%
Nan Ya Plastics Corporation 1303 238.00 TWD 235.25 TWD −1%
Givaudan SA GIVN CHF 3,406 CHF 1,523 −55%
Wanhua Chemical Group 600309 ¥71.60 ¥68.03 −5%
Sika AG SIKA CHF 182.10 CHF 98.89 −46%
Asian Paints Limited ASIANPAINT ₹2,455 ₹1,479 −40%
PPG Industries, Inc PPG $107.20 $77.06 −28%

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$0.5355 −255%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Aemetis Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AMTX

Frequently asked questions

Is Aemetis Inc (AMTX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.5355 versus a price of $1.90, about −72% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AMTX?
Our model-based fair value for Aemetis Inc is $0.5355 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.90.
What is the quality score of AMTX?
Aemetis Inc has a Quality Score of 16/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aemetis Inc (AMTX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.5355 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.3400, optimistic scenario $0.6715. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aemetis Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.5355, about −72% upside versus a price of $1.90 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.3400, optimistic scenario $0.6715. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aemetis Inc (AMTX)?
Aemetis Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $220M (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Aemetis Inc (AMTX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aemetis Inc it is $0.5355 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of $1.90. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Aemetis Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, AMTX trades above its calculated fair value: price $1.90, fair value $0.5355, a gap of about −72% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AMTX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.5355). For Aemetis Inc the two are $1.36 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aemetis Inc worth?
The market values Aemetis Inc at about $135M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is $1.90; our models calculate a fair value of $0.5355 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AMTX?
Our models span a range for Aemetis Inc: cautious scenario $0.3400, base $0.5355, optimistic $0.6715 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price $1.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aemetis Inc (AMTX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aemetis Inc (as of Sep 13, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 16/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AMTX from its 52-week high?
Aemetis Inc trades at $1.90, about 48% below its 52-week high of $3.66 and 44% above the low of $1.32 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.5355 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aemetis Inc?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Ecolab Inc, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aemetis Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price $1.90, calculated fair value $0.5355 (−72%), Quality Score 16/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AMTX calculated?
We run Aemetis Inc through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.5355, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Aemetis Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aemetis Inc (AMTX)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $1.90. Our model-based fair value is $0.5355, about −72% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aemetis Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.6715). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (16/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.3400 to $0.6715) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Aemetis Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Aemetis Inc (AMTX)?
The market capitalisation of Aemetis Inc is $135M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aemetis Inc (AMTX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aemetis Inc is 0.61 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aemetis Inc (AMTX)?
Earnings per share at Aemetis Inc are $−1.14. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Aemetis Inc (AMTX)?
The net margin of Aemetis Inc is −37.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aemetis Inc (AMTX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aemetis Inc is −14.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aemetis Inc (AMTX)?
The operating margin of Aemetis Inc is −11.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aemetis Inc (AMTX)?
Revenue at Aemetis Inc is growing +27.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Aemetis Inc (AMTX) generate?
The free cash flow of Aemetis Inc is −$22.7M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Aemetis Inc (AMTX) carry?
The net debt of Aemetis Inc is $377M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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