American Realty Investors Inc (ARL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of American Realty Investors Inc stock $16.53, price $22.47, that is 26.4% below the price, quality 45 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 4 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $10.26 – $30.50 · fair‑value band $12.40 – $20.66 · the $22.47 price screens above the $16.53 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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American Realty Investors, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, acquires, develops, and owns multifamily and commercial real estate properties in the Southern United States. It operates through two segments: Residential and Commercial.
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The company leases apartment units to residents, and office, industrial, and retail space. It also offers tenant services, including parking and storage space rental; and acquires and sells land and properties. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Dallas, Texas.
American Realty Investors, Inc. is a subsidiary of Realty Advisors, Inc.
Stock analysis
American Realty Investors Inc (ARL) currently trades at $22.47, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16.53, 26% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $25.61 per share, and 2 of the 4 models we run sit above the $22.47 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $18.21, and 2 of the 4 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $12.40 (bear) to $20.66 (bull), the price of $22.47 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2005: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2005.
American Realty Investors Inc reported revenue of $50.0M in FY2025 versus $42.0M in FY2021, a compound +4.4%/yr. Reported net income was $15.7M in FY2025, compounding +47.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $363M Small · P/E ratio 42.4 · P/S ratio 7.02 · EPS (TTM) $0.5300 · Net margin 16.1% · Return on equity 1.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.2% (5-year average) · Operating margin −16.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 72% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at −26%, ARL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$12.40Fair Value $16.53Bull$20.66
Price $22.47 · Downside -26.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4545 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2005: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2005.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −7.1% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+10.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.20.4% vs −8.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → −13%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 7.7%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 472 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−26.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)1.2% · Below median
Return on assets1.4% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)16.1% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)−16.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)9.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.35× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)42.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B0.59× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)7.02× · Priciest 25%
PEG4.41× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 55
FUTURE (revenue growth)45· sector 19
PAST (return on equity)5· sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)83· sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 66
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is American Realty Investors Inc (ARL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $16.53 versus a price of $22.47, about 26% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ARL?
Our model-based fair value for American Realty Investors Inc is $16.53 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $22.47.
What is the quality score of ARL?
American Realty Investors Inc has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for American Realty Investors Inc (ARL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $16.53 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $12.40, optimistic scenario $20.66. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the American Realty Investors Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $16.53, about 26% lower versus a price of $22.47 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $12.40, optimistic scenario $20.66. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of American Realty Investors Inc (ARL)?
American Realty Investors Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $51.7M (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of American Realty Investors Inc (ARL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For American Realty Investors Inc it is $16.53 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $22.47. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models in 3 families (Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is American Realty Investors Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, ARL trades above its calculated fair value: price $22.47, fair value $16.53, a gap of about −26% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($22.47); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($16.53). For American Realty Investors Inc the two are $5.94 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is American Realty Investors Inc worth?
The market values American Realty Investors Inc at about $363M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $22.47; our models calculate a fair value of $16.53 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARL?
Our models span a range for American Realty Investors Inc: cautious scenario $12.40, base $16.53, optimistic $20.66 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $22.47). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ARL?
American Realty Investors Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 42.4 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $16.53 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 19.5 (reported for FY2025: 23.2). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2018 to 2025), reported earnings, 5 of the years ex one-offs: 14.8. Other multiples: PEG 4.4, P/B 0.6, P/S 7.0.
What is the PEG ratio of ARL?
The PEG ratio of American Realty Investors Inc is 4.41 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of American Realty Investors Inc (ARL)?
Balance-sheet figures for American Realty Investors Inc (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 1.2%, debt of 0.35 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ARL from its 52-week high?
American Realty Investors Inc trades at $22.47, about 4% below its 52-week high of $23.44 and 72% above the low of $13.03 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $16.53 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to American Realty Investors Inc?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value CBRE Group, Cellnex Telecom, S.A, KE Holdings, Swire Properties Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is American Realty Investors Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $22.47, calculated fair value $16.53 (−26%), Quality Score 45/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARL calculated?
We run American Realty Investors Inc through 4 models from 3 families: Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $16.53 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. American Realty Investors Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of American Realty Investors Inc (ARL)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $22.47. Our model-based fair value is $16.53, about 26% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with American Realty Investors Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($20.66). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (45/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of American Realty Investors Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of American Realty Investors Inc (ARL)?
The market capitalisation of American Realty Investors Inc is $363M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of American Realty Investors Inc (ARL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of American Realty Investors Inc is 7.02 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of American Realty Investors Inc (ARL)?
Earnings per share at American Realty Investors Inc are $0.5300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 42.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of American Realty Investors Inc (ARL)?
The net margin of American Realty Investors Inc is 16.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of American Realty Investors Inc (ARL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of American Realty Investors Inc is 1.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of American Realty Investors Inc (ARL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of American Realty Investors Inc is −1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of American Realty Investors Inc (ARL)?
The operating margin of American Realty Investors Inc is −16.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at American Realty Investors Inc (ARL)?
Revenue at American Realty Investors Inc is growing +9.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at American Realty Investors Inc (ARL)?
Earnings per share at American Realty Investors Inc are growing +142% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does American Realty Investors Inc (ARL) generate?
The free cash flow of American Realty Investors Inc is −$5.6M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does American Realty Investors Inc (ARL) carry?
The net debt of American Realty Investors Inc is $200M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 7, 2026