Avolta AG (AVOL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 2, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Avolta AG stock CHF 52.12, price CHF 47.96, upside +8.7%, quality 50 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range CHF 27.46 – CHF 54.95 · fair‑value band CHF 39.08 – CHF 66.64 · the CHF 47.96 price screens below the CHF 52.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 1, 2026.
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Avolta AG operates as a travel retail company in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, North America, Latin America, and the Asia Pacific.
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It offers perfumes and cosmetics, food and beverages, wines and spirits, luxury goods, fuel, electronics, literature, publications, toys and souvenirs, soft drinks, packaged food, travel accessories, personal items, newspapers, magazines, books, watches and jewelry, sunglasses, destination, and other products; and confectionery and catering, textile, leather, luggage, and tobacco and related products.
The company operates general travel retail shops under the Dufry, World Duty Free, Hellenic Duty Free, Autogrill, and HMSHost brands; and convenience stores under the Hudson brand.
It operates duty-free and duty-paid shops, restaurants, and hybrid concepts located at airports, border, downtown and hotel shops, railway stations, cruise liners and ferries, seaports, and motorways. The company was formerly known as Dufry AG and changed its name to Avolta AG in November 2023.
Avolta AG was incorporated in 1865 and is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
Avolta AG (AVOL) currently trades at CHF 47.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 52.12, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 8.0%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of CHF 145.01 per share, and 12 of the 24 models we run sit above the CHF 47.96 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at CHF 8.82, and 12 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: CHF 39.08 (bear) to CHF 66.64 (bull), the price of CHF 47.96 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Avolta AG reported revenue of CHF 14.0B in FY2025 versus CHF 3.9B in FY2021, a compound +37.5%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 199M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap CHF 6.6B Mid · P/E ratio 33.8 · P/S ratio 0.49 · EPS (TTM) CHF 1.42 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin 1.5% · Return on equity 18.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at 9%, AVOL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearCHF 39.08Fair Value CHF 52.12BullCHF 66.64
Price CHF 47.96 · Upside +8.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (CHF 0.2271 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+40.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.6% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +9.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.4%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−98% → 8%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.6%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 117% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−20.7%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Switzerland: IMF forecast 0.6% a year to 2030, 0.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −21.2% a year for the price and +3.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (22 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Long-term airport contracts build a durable base in travel retail while sparse data and absent innovation signals leave no clear moat and limit quality assessment.
Main risk: Execution risks in the recovering travel sector could prevent long-term airport contracts from delivering steadier cash flows.
Avolta keeps extending its footprint through long-term airport contracts, highlighted by Hudson’s new 20-year duty-free deal at Seattle-Tacoma that blends global brands with local Washington themes and small-business partnerships. This approach builds a durable base in travel retail. Our models see the shares as undervalued. Will these strategic wins drive steadier cash flows more than they expose the company to execution risks in a recovering travel sector?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Retail · 203 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Fair Value upside+8.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)18.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets2.1% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)2.6% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)6.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−2.5% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.59× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)33.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B3.44× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Avolta AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AVOL
Frequently asked questions
Is Avolta AG (AVOL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of CHF 52.12 versus a price of CHF 47.96, about +9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of AVOL?
Our model-based fair value for Avolta AG is CHF 52.12 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: CHF 47.96.
What is the quality score of AVOL?
Avolta AG has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Avolta AG (AVOL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of CHF 52.12 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario CHF 39.08, optimistic scenario CHF 66.64. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Avolta AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at CHF 52.12, about +9% upside versus a price of CHF 47.96 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario CHF 39.08, optimistic scenario CHF 66.64. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Avolta AG (AVOL)?
Avolta AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about CHF 13.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
Does Avolta AG pay a dividend?
Avolta AG currently shows a dividend yield of 2.40% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Avolta AG (AVOL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Avolta AG would have to grow free cash flow by -20.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +40.4 % per year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AVOL use?
Our models discount Avolta AG at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.06, country premium for Switzerland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Avolta AG that is -20.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Avolta AG (AVOL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Avolta AG grew +40.4 % a year. The price currently implies -20.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Avolta AG (AVOL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Avolta AG (-20.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Avolta AG (AVOL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 36.70 %: that much free cash flow Avolta AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Avolta AG (AVOL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Avolta AG it is CHF 52.12 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of CHF 47.96. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Avolta AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, AVOL trades below its calculated fair value: price CHF 47.96, fair value CHF 52.12, a gap of about +9% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AVOL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (CHF 47.96); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (CHF 52.12). For Avolta AG the two are CHF 4.16 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Avolta AG worth?
The market values Avolta AG at about CHF 6.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is CHF 47.96; our models calculate a fair value of CHF 52.12 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AVOL?
Our models span a range for Avolta AG: cautious scenario CHF 39.08, base CHF 52.12, optimistic CHF 66.64 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price CHF 47.96). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AVOL?
Avolta AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.8 (as of Nov 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of CHF 52.12 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 62.2. Other multiples: PEG 4.9, P/B 3.4, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 9.4.
What is the PEG ratio of AVOL?
The PEG ratio of Avolta AG is 4.94 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 1, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Avolta AG (AVOL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Avolta AG (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity 18.6%, debt of 1.59 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AVOL from its 52-week high?
Avolta AG trades at CHF 47.96, about 13% below its 52-week high of CHF 54.95 and 16% above the low of CHF 41.18 (as of Nov 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of CHF 52.12 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Avolta AG?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc, Williams-Sonoma, Inc, Ulta Beauty, Inc, Casey's General Stores, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Avolta AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price CHF 47.96, calculated fair value CHF 52.12 (+9%), Quality Score 50/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AVOL calculated?
We run Avolta AG through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of CHF 52.12, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Avolta AG currently trades 8 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Avolta AG (AVOL)?
The closing price on Nov 2, 2026 was CHF 47.96. Our model-based fair value is CHF 52.12, about +9% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Avolta AG right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Avolta AG (AVOL) come from?
Earnings per share at Avolta AG grew +4.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −4.0 %, EBIT margin +4.5 %, tax rate −1.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +5.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Avolta AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Avolta AG (AVOL)?
The market capitalisation of Avolta AG is CHF 6.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Avolta AG (AVOL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Avolta AG is 0.49 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Avolta AG (AVOL)?
Earnings per share at Avolta AG are CHF 1.42 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 33.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Avolta AG (AVOL)?
The dividend yield of Avolta AG is 2.4% (payout 81.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Avolta AG (AVOL)?
The net margin of Avolta AG is 1.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Avolta AG (AVOL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Avolta AG is 18.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Avolta AG (AVOL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Avolta AG is 2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Avolta AG (AVOL)?
The operating margin of Avolta AG is 6.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Avolta AG (AVOL)?
Revenue at Avolta AG is growing −2.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +26.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Avolta AG (AVOL)?
Earnings per share at Avolta AG are growing +31.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Avolta AG (AVOL) carry?
The net debt of Avolta AG is CHF 10.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 1, 2026