Avolta AG (AVOL) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · CH · Market cap CHF 7.5B
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Share price −9.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 38% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (CHF 38.67). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range CHF 27.46 – CHF 60.66 · fair‑value band CHF 23.20 – CHF 38.67 · the CHF 50.00 price screens above the CHF 30.94 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Avolta AG (AVOL) currently trades at CHF 50.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 30.94, implying the stock looks roughly 38.1% overvalued today. We read business quality at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Avolta AG generated revenue of CHF 14.0B at a net margin of 1.4%. Revenue declined 0.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.8%. Net debt stands at CHF 10.7B. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from CHF 23.20 (bear case) to CHF 38.67 (bull case); at CHF 50.00, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -24% fair-value upside, at -38%, AVOL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (CHF 213.51) versus Asset-Based (CHF 9.02). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Avolta AG operates as a travel retail company in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, North America, Latin America, and the Asia Pacific.
Full company description
Avolta AG operates as a travel retail company in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, North America, Latin America, and the Asia Pacific. It offers perfumes and cosmetics, food and beverages, wines and spirits, luxury goods, fuel, electronics, literature, publications, toys and souvenirs, soft drinks, packaged food, travel accessories, personal items, newspapers, magazines, books, watches and jewelry, sunglasses, destination, and other products; and confectionery and catering, textile, leather, luggage, and tobacco and related products. The company operates general travel retail shops under the Dufry, World Duty Free, Hellenic Duty Free, Autogrill, and HMSHost brands; and convenience stores under the Hudson brand. It operates duty-free and duty-paid shops, restaurants, and hybrid concepts located at airports, border, downtown and hotel shops, railway stations, cruise liners and ferries, seaports, and motorways. The company was formerly known as Dufry AG and changed its name to Avolta AG in November 2023. Avolta AG was incorporated in 1865 and is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Avolta AG reported revenue of CHF 14.0B in FY2025 versus CHF 3.9B in FY2021, a compound +37.5%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 199M in FY2025.
AVOL screens 38% overvalued. Compare with Casey's General Stores, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Avolta AG (DUFRY) (H1 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strategic Wins and Deleveraging Amid ...
- Aeroplan and Club Avolta Forge Loyalty Program Partnership in North America
- Is It Smart To Buy Avolta AG (VTX:AVOL) Before It Goes Ex-Dividend?
- Is Avolta AG - Unsponsored ADR (DUFRY) Stock Outpacing Its Consumer Discretionary Peers This Year?
Peer Group
Specialty Retail · 221 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY | $827.04 | $405.44 | -51% |
| Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM | $222.84 | $164.16 | -26% |
| Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA | $479.57 | $488.39 | +2% |
| DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS | $208.89 | $181.10 | -13% |
| Best Buy Co BBY | $83.98 | $109.12 | +30% |
| China Tourism Group 601888 | ¥52.90 | ¥40.40 | -24% |
| Tractor Supply Company TSCO | $31.01 | $35.52 | +15% |
| Murphy USA Inc MUSA | $618.57 | $423.35 | -32% |
| Five Below, Inc FIVE | $197.71 | $117.29 | -41% |
| Taiwan Mobile Co 3045 | 110.50 TWD | 80.98 TWD | -27% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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