Box Inc (BOX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Box Inc stock $36.82, price $41.95, that is 12.2% below the price, quality 74 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 21 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $21.37 – $44.05 · fair‑value band $25.78 – $47.88 · the $41.95 price screens above the $36.82 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Box, Inc. provides a cloud content management platform that enables organizations of various sizes to manage cloud content from anywhere and on any device in the United States, Poland, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
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The company's Software-as-a-Service platform enables users to work with their content as they need from secure external collaboration, workspaces to e-signature processes, and content workflows improving employee productivity and accelerating business processes.
It offers web, mobile, and desktop applications of its solutions on a platform, as well as the ability to develop custom applications. The company was formerly known as Box.net, Inc. and changed its name to Box, Inc. in November 2011.
Box, Inc. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Redwood City, California.
Stock analysis
Box Inc (BOX) currently trades at $41.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $36.82, 12% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $43.01 per share, and 2 of the 21 models we run sit above the $41.95 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $5.48, and 19 of the 21 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $25.78 (bear) to $47.88 (bull), the price of $41.95 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Box Inc reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2026 versus $874M in FY2022, a compound +7.7%/yr. Reported net income was $101M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $6.1B Mid · P/E ratio 60.8 · P/S ratio 5.23 · EPS (TTM) $0.6900 · Net margin 8.6% · Return on equity 70.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.1% (5-year average) · Operating margin 10.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 96% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −12%, BOX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$25.78Fair Value $36.82Bull$47.88
Price $41.95 · Downside -12.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5312 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 6 officers or directors sold shares worth $5.4M and none bought.
SaleOlivia NottebohmChief Operating Officer14× since Nov 10, 2025: 83,946 shares, avg. $28.20$2.4MOct 21, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleDylan C SmithChief Financial Officer11× since Nov 10, 2025: 187,000 shares, avg. $28.70$5.4MOct 9, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleDana L EvanDirector2× since Apr 6, 2026: 23,192 shares, avg. $27.10$628,434Sep 15, 2026
SaleAaron LevieChief Executive Officer, Director4× since Dec 10, 2025: 60,000 shares, avg. $28.45$1.7MSep 10, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleEli BerkovitchVP Chief Acct Ofr & Controller6× since Dec 15, 2025: 44,313 shares, avg. $26.13$1.2MAug 31, 2026
SaleBethany MayerDirector4,060 shares at $26.00$105,569Jun 26, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJack R LazarDirector2,500 shares at $31.77$79,425Dec 4, 202510b5-1 plan
Plus 14 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.88/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +14.5% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+54.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+54.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−5% → 7%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.5% a year for the price and +5.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Box shows strength in enabling secure AI workflows for regulated finance through its governance features, yet negative equity and limited durable moat evidence constrain its competitive position.
Main risk: Microsoft and Google could bundle advanced AI features into their productivity suites at low or no extra cost, pressuring Box's pricing and causing customers to switch away from its platform.
Bull case: Box could leverage its secure content repository as the foundation for enterprise AI agents, deepening integrations with major models and winning regulated industry deals.
Bear case: If bundled competitors or new AI-native tools gain traction, Box might see slower adoption of its suites and margin pressure from pricing competition in the content management market.
Box just secured a full-bank rollout at Ogaki Kyoritsu Bank for its Enterprise Advanced platform as a secure content lake to manage unstructured data and enable AI workflows. This shows regulated finance turning to Box's governance for safe AI adoption, but a single regional deal raises whether such wins will drive broad enterprise momentum or remain incremental. Will Box capture more from AI content demand than it loses to rising infrastructure costs?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 345 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score74 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−12.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets6.6% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)10.6% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)10.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)9.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)60.8× · Priciest 25%
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)4.98× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)17.5× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA47.2× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.64× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)17· sector 25
FUTURE (revenue growth)46· sector 60
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 31
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Box Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BOX
Frequently asked questions
Is Box Inc (BOX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $36.82 versus a price of $41.95, about 12% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BOX?
Our model-based fair value for Box Inc is $36.82 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $41.95.
What is the quality score of BOX?
Box Inc has a Quality Score of 74/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Box Inc (BOX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $36.82 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario $25.78, optimistic scenario $47.88. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Box Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $36.82, about 12% lower versus a price of $41.95 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $25.78, optimistic scenario $47.88. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Box Inc (BOX)?
Box Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Box Inc pay a dividend?
Box Inc does not currently pay a dividend.
What growth is priced into Box Inc (BOX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Box Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +5.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.8 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BOX use?
Our models discount Box Inc at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.72, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Box Inc that is +5.9 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Box Inc (BOX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Box Inc grew +8.8 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +5.9 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Box Inc (BOX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Box Inc (+5.9 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Box Inc (BOX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.70 %: that much free cash flow Box Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Box Inc (BOX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Box Inc it is $36.82 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $41.95. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Box Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, BOX trades above its calculated fair value: price $41.95, fair value $36.82, a gap of about −12% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BOX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($41.95); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($36.82). For Box Inc the two are $5.13 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Box Inc worth?
The market values Box Inc at about $6.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $41.95; our models calculate a fair value of $36.82 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BOX?
Our models span a range for Box Inc: cautious scenario $25.78, base $36.82, optimistic $47.88 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $41.95). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BOX?
Box Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 60.8 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $36.82 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2026 it is 31.3 (reported for FY2026: 60.8). Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/S 5.0, EV/EBITDA 47.2.
What is the PEG ratio of BOX?
The PEG ratio of Box Inc is 0.64 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Box Inc (BOX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Box Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 74/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BOX from its 52-week high?
Box Inc trades at $41.95, about 5% below its 52-week high of $44.05 and 96% above the low of $21.37 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $36.82 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Box Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Box Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $41.95, calculated fair value $36.82 (−12%), Quality Score 74/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BOX calculated?
We run Box Inc through 21 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $36.82 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Box Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Box Inc (BOX)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $41.95. Our model-based fair value is $36.82, about 12% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Box Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (74/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($25.78 to $47.88) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Box Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Box Inc (BOX)?
The market capitalisation of Box Inc is $6.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Box Inc (BOX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Box Inc is 5.23 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Box Inc (BOX)?
Earnings per share at Box Inc are $0.6900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 60.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Box Inc (BOX)?
The net margin of Box Inc is 8.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Box Inc (BOX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Box Inc is 70.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Box Inc (BOX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Box Inc is 3.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Box Inc (BOX)?
The operating margin of Box Inc is 10.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Box Inc (BOX)?
Revenue at Box Inc is growing +9.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Box Inc (BOX)?
Earnings per share at Box Inc are growing +80.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Box Inc (BOX) carry?
The net debt of Box Inc is $649M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 1.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 6, 2026