Box, Inc (BOX) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $4.2B
Box, Inc
BOX · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +15.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 81% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($8.93). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($3.96 to $8.93) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $20.74 – $38.55 · fair‑value band $3.96 – $8.93 · the $33.24 price screens above the $6.21 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Box, Inc (BOX) currently trades at $33.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.21, implying the stock looks roughly 81.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Box, Inc generated revenue of $676M at a net margin of -19.8%. Revenue grew 13.6% year over year. Net debt stands at $649M. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 42.3. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $3.96 (bear case) to $8.93 (bull case); at $33.24, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -50% fair-value upside, at -81%, BOX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($27.43) versus Dividend Discount ($1.64). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 72 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Box, Inc. provides a cloud content management platform that enables organizations of various sizes to manage cloud content from anywhere and on any device in the United States, Poland, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
Full company description
Box, Inc. provides a cloud content management platform that enables organizations of various sizes to manage cloud content from anywhere and on any device in the United States, Poland, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company's Software-as-a-Service platform enables users to work with their content as they need from secure external collaboration, workspaces to e-signature processes, and content workflows improving employee productivity and accelerating business processes. It offers web, mobile, and desktop applications of its solutions on a platform, as well as the ability to develop custom applications. The company was formerly known as Box.net, Inc. and changed its name to Box, Inc. in November 2011. Box, Inc. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Redwood City, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Box, Inc reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2026 versus $874M in FY2022, a compound +7.7%/yr. Reported net income was $101M in FY2026.
BOX screens 81% overvalued. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Box Sets Date to Announce Second Quarter Fiscal 2027 Financial Results
- Quintas Energy Selects Box to Build AI-Ready Content Platform for Renewable Energy Asset Management
- Box CEO Aaron Levie Says AI Is Creating New Hiring Opportunities, Not the 'Negative AI Jobs Outcome' Many Predicted
Peer Group
Software - Infrastructure · 368 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft Corporation MSFT | $384.00 | $274.17 | -29% |
| Oracle Corporation ORAC | C$9.08 | C$2.94 | -68% |
| Fortinet, Inc FTNT | $160.78 | $44.96 | -72% |
| Synopsys, Inc 1SNPS | €354.50 | €93.61 | -74% |
| Block, Inc XYZ | A$114.53 | A$70.69 | -38% |
| CoreWeave, Inc CRWV | $79.94 | $44.89 | -44% |
| Range Intelligent Computing Technology Group 300442 | ¥71.60 | ¥34.00 | -53% |
| Oracle Financial Services Software Limited OFSS | ₹11,651 | ₹5,821 | -50% |
| 360 Security Technology Inc 601360 | ¥9.64 | ¥5.05 | -48% |
| One97 Communications Limited PAYTM | ₹1,342 | ₹181.50 | -86% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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