Cairo Communication (CAI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 12, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Cairo Communication stock €6.13, price €2.26, upside +171.8%, quality 61 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €1.10 – €3.21 · fair‑value band €3.91 – €8.34 · the €2.26 price screens below the €6.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 10, 2026.
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Cairo Communication S.p.A. operates as a communication company in Italy and Spain. The company operates through the Magazine Publishing Cairo Editore; Advertising; TV Publishing La7 and Network Operator; and RCS segments.
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It publishes weeklies under the Settimanale DIPIU and DIPIU' TV names; supplements under the Settimanale DIPIU' e DIPIU'TV Cucina e Stellare and Diva e Donna names; fortnightly supplement under the Cucina Mia, TV Mia, Nuovo, F, Settimanale Giallo, Nuovo TV, Enigmistica Più, and Enigmistica Mia names, as well as monthly magazines under the Natural Style, Bell'Italia, Gardenia, and Arte names.
The company also operates as a multimedia advertising broker that sells advertising time and space on television, in print media, and stadiums; a publisher of dailies and magazines; and television publisher for La7 and La7d.
In addition, it is involved in the advertising sale of other third-party publishers; publishing and distribution of of daily newspaper, magazines, and editorial products at newsstands; publishing of books; and operation of sports radio and webTV, and broadcasting businesses.
The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Milan, Italy. Cairo Communication S.p.A. operates as a subsidiary of U.T. Communications S.p.A.
Stock analysis
Cairo Communication (CAI) currently trades at €2.26, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €6.13, implying the stock looks roughly 63% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €7.27 per share, and 22 of the 24 models we run sit above the €2.26 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €1.36, and 2 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €3.91 (bear) to €8.34 (bull), the price of €2.26 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Cairo Communication reported revenue of €1,000M in FY2025 versus €1.1B in FY2021, a compound −1.7%/yr. Reported net income was €39.7M in FY2025, compounding −6.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €271M Small · P/E ratio 7.5 · P/S ratio 0.26 · EPS (TTM) €0.3000 · Dividend yield 8.0% · Net margin 3.4% · Return on equity 6.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.8% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 39 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at 172%, CAI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€3.91Fair Value €6.13Bull€8.34
Price €2.26 · Upside +171.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.1039 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +16.0% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−19.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1.1% vs 7.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 10%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−15.4%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −17.2% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Publishing · 103 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside+171.8% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)6.3% · Below median
Return on assets3.5% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)5.3% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)15.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−2.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)8.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.09× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Publishing median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)7.5× · Cheapest 25%
P/B0.48× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cairo Communication Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CAI.MI
Frequently asked questions
Is Cairo Communication (CAI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €6.13 versus a price of €2.26, about +172% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CAI?
Our model-based fair value for Cairo Communication is €6.13 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €2.26.
What is the quality score of CAI?
Cairo Communication has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cairo Communication (CAI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €6.13 (as of Nov 10, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €3.91, optimistic scenario €8.34. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cairo Communication stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €6.13, about +172% upside versus a price of €2.26 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €3.91, optimistic scenario €8.34. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cairo Communication (CAI)?
Cairo Communication reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €1.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
Does Cairo Communication pay a dividend?
Cairo Communication currently shows a dividend yield of 7.98% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 10, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Cairo Communication (CAI) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Cairo Communication pays a dividend of €0.18 per share a year, a dividend yield of 8.0%. The last ex-dividend date was May 25, 2026. The payout ratio is 60.0% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 3.25 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Cairo Communication (CAI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Cairo Communication would have to grow free cash flow by -15.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.6 % per year. As of Nov 10, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CAI use?
Our models discount Cairo Communication at 13.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.68, country premium for Italy. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Cairo Communication that is -15.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (13.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Cairo Communication (CAI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Cairo Communication grew +0.6 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -15.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Cairo Communication (CAI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Cairo Communication (-15.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Cairo Communication (CAI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 25.95 %: that much free cash flow Cairo Communication produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Cairo Communication (CAI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cairo Communication it is €6.13 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of €2.26. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Cairo Communication stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, CAI trades below its calculated fair value: price €2.26, fair value €6.13, a gap of about +172% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CAI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€2.26); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€6.13). For Cairo Communication the two are €3.88 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cairo Communication worth?
The market values Cairo Communication at about €271M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is €2.26; our models calculate a fair value of €6.13 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CAI?
Our models span a range for Cairo Communication: cautious scenario €3.91, base €6.13, optimistic €8.34 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price €2.26). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CAI?
Cairo Communication trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.5 (as of Nov 10, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €6.13 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 8.1. Other multiples: PEG 15.4, P/B 0.5, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 2.7.
What is the PEG ratio of CAI?
The PEG ratio of Cairo Communication is 15.40 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 10, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cairo Communication (CAI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cairo Communication (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity 6.3%, debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CAI from its 52-week high?
Cairo Communication trades at €2.26, about 15% below its 52-week high of €2.67 and 11% above the low of €2.04 (as of Nov 12, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €6.13 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cairo Communication?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value The New York Times Company, Xinhua Winshare Publishing and Media Co, Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media Corporation, China Science Publishing & Media Ltd, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cairo Communication stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price €2.26, calculated fair value €6.13 (+172%), Quality Score 61/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CAI calculated?
We run Cairo Communication through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €6.13 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0% above its aggregate fair value. Cairo Communication currently trades 63% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cairo Communication (CAI)?
The closing price on Nov 12, 2026 was €2.26. Our model-based fair value is €6.13, about +172% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cairo Communication right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (€3.91). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (€3.91 to €8.34) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Cairo Communication (CAI) come from?
Earnings per share at Cairo Communication grew +5.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.4 %, EBIT margin +2.9 %, tax rate −2.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Cairo Communication
How large is the market capitalisation of Cairo Communication (CAI)?
The market capitalisation of Cairo Communication is €271M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cairo Communication (CAI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cairo Communication is 0.26 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cairo Communication (CAI)?
Earnings per share at Cairo Communication are €0.3000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Cairo Communication (CAI)?
The dividend yield of Cairo Communication is 8.0% (payout 60.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Cairo Communication (CAI)?
The net margin of Cairo Communication is 3.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cairo Communication (CAI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cairo Communication is 6.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cairo Communication (CAI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cairo Communication is 3.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cairo Communication (CAI)?
The operating margin of Cairo Communication is 15.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cairo Communication (CAI)?
Revenue at Cairo Communication is growing −2.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cairo Communication (CAI)?
Earnings per share at Cairo Communication are growing −12.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Cairo Communication (CAI) carry?
The net debt of Cairo Communication is €124M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 10, 2026