Calian Technologies Ltd (CGY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Calian Technologies Ltd stock C$51.33, price C$84.97, that is 39.6% below the price, quality 61 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$37.05 – C$92.13 · fair‑value band C$37.40 – C$66.73 · the C$84.97 price screens above the C$51.33 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Calian Group Ltd. provides business services and solutions in Canada and internationally. It operates through four segments: Advanced Technologies, Health, Learning, and IT and Cyber Solutions.
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The company offers communication and connectivity products, such as antennas, RF solutions, software solutions, GNSS, satellite flight operations, and carrier and spectrum monitoring; and cybersecurity solutions, including risk assessment and compliance, penetration testing, IT infrastructure protection, penetration testing, cybersecurity training and awareness, RF emissions security, cyberattack simulations, incident response services, and cloud security services.
It also provides enterprise IT solutions comprising managed IT services, 24/7 help desk outsourcing, managed XDR security, hardware asset management, and NOC services; healthcare, pharmaceutical solutions, and digital health solutions; and corporate training, immersive and blended learning, and instructor-led learning solutions.
In addition, the company offers composites manufacturing, circuit card assembly, wiring harnesses and cables, fibreglass canopies, and product assembly services; custom software, integration and embedded design, operational management and lifecycle support, modelling and simulation-enabled design, composites engineering and technology, research and development, qualification testing, and asset management services; and emergency response and emergency resilience, hazard-informed risk assessment, emergency response plans, and after-action review solutions.
It serves defense, health, transportation, agriculture, government and public service, public safety and security, energy, resources and environment, space, retail and hospitality, manufacturing, and network and communication infrastructure industries.
The company was formerly known as Calian Technologies Ltd. and changed its name to Calian Group Ltd. in April 2016. The company was incorporated in 1982 and is based in Ottawa, Canada.
Stock analysis
Calian Technologies Ltd (CGY) currently trades at C$84.97, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$51.33, 40% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of C$48.73 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the C$84.97 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at C$15.90, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: C$37.40 (bear) to C$66.73 (bull), the price of C$84.97 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Calian Technologies Ltd reported revenue of C$774M in FY2025 versus C$518M in FY2021, a compound +10.5%/yr. Reported net income was C$20.6M in FY2025, compounding +16.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap C$995M (≈ $705M) Small · P/E ratio 25.7 · P/S ratio 1.14 · EPS (TTM) C$3.30 · Dividend yield 1.3% · Net margin 4.4% · Return on equity 12.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.6% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 40 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 87% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −40%, CGY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearC$37.40Fair Value C$51.33BullC$66.73
Price C$84.97 · Downside -39.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$2.18 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCFC$31.23C$55.11C$90.9878
Growth DCFC$30.94C$52.65C$83.7077
Residual IncomeC$21.37C$22.00C$23.5876
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFC$31.23C$55.11C$90.9878
Owner EarningsC$46.51C$79.86C$129.9675
5Y Revenue ExitC$20.03C$35.50C$55.5271
5Y EBITDA ExitC$42.57C$80.59C$127.3173
5Y P/E ExitC$22.92C$41.29C$61.4269
10Y Revenue ExitC$23.28C$38.47C$59.8566
10Y EBITDA ExitC$37.67C$68.73C$114.2366
10Y P/E ExitC$25.67C$42.35C$64.3263
Earnings-Based
Graham-DoddC$12.13C$50.59C$68.9864
Lynch FVC$12.80C$18.29C$23.7761
PEG = 1.0C$12.80C$18.29C$23.7757
EPVC$8.68C$10.95C$12.8774
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGMC$9.05C$16.73C$23.5767
DDM Multi-StageC$9.05C$15.07C$17.8267
Multiples
P/E MultipleC$28.10C$37.46C$46.8363
P/S MultipleC$22.75C$30.33C$37.9158
EV/EBITC$18.99C$29.03C$39.0765
EV/EBITDAC$51.42C$72.27C$93.1167
EV/RevenueC$10.37C$19.58C$28.7952
Growth DCF
Growth DCFC$30.94C$52.65C$83.7077
Rev-Margin DCFC$20.03C$35.60C$55.1471
Economic Profit
Residual IncomeC$21.37C$22.00C$23.5876
ROIC CompounderC$8.68C$10.95C$12.8772
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/EC$21.86C$31.22C$40.5967
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a year distorted by one-off effects.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.82/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.3% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−2.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−4.6% vs 2.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 4%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+20.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.2% a year for the price and +4.3% for the forecasts.
Compare Calian Technologies Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 238 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside−39.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)12.0% · Above median
Return on assets2.9% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)4.4% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)5.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)19.9% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.41× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)25.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B3.10× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)1.14× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)28.6× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA12.8× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 65
PAST (return on equity)48· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)80· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)26· sector 19
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Calian Technologies Ltd (CGY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$51.33 versus a price of C$84.97, about 40% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CGY?
Our model-based fair value for Calian Technologies Ltd is C$51.33 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$84.97.
What is the quality score of CGY?
Calian Technologies Ltd has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Calian Technologies Ltd (CGY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$51.33 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$37.40, optimistic scenario C$66.73. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Calian Technologies Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$51.33, about 40% lower versus a price of C$84.97 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$37.40, optimistic scenario C$66.73. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Calian Technologies Ltd (CGY)?
Calian Technologies Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$870M (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Calian Technologies Ltd pay a dividend?
Calian Technologies Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 1.32% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Calian Technologies Ltd (CGY) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Calian Technologies Ltd pays a dividend of C$1.12 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.3%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 26, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2002. The payout ratio is 33.9% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.70 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Calian Technologies Ltd (CGY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Calian Technologies Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +20.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.4 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CGY use?
Our models discount Calian Technologies Ltd at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.84, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Calian Technologies Ltd that is +20.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Calian Technologies Ltd (CGY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Calian Technologies Ltd grew +12.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +20.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Calian Technologies Ltd (CGY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Calian Technologies Ltd (+20.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Calian Technologies Ltd (CGY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.50 %: that much free cash flow Calian Technologies Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Calian Technologies Ltd (CGY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Calian Technologies Ltd it is C$51.33 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of C$84.97. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Calian Technologies Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, CGY trades above its calculated fair value: price C$84.97, fair value C$51.33, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CGY?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$84.97); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$51.33). For Calian Technologies Ltd the two are C$33.65 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Calian Technologies Ltd worth?
The market values Calian Technologies Ltd at about C$995M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is C$84.97; our models calculate a fair value of C$51.33 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CGY?
Our models span a range for Calian Technologies Ltd: cautious scenario C$37.40, base C$51.33, optimistic C$66.73 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price C$84.97). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CGY?
Calian Technologies Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.7 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$51.33 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 29.1. Other multiples: P/B 3.1, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 12.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Calian Technologies Ltd (CGY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Calian Technologies Ltd (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 12.0%, debt of 0.41 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CGY from its 52-week high?
Calian Technologies Ltd trades at C$84.97, about 8% below its 52-week high of C$92.13 and 87% above the low of C$45.33 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$51.33 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Calian Technologies Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Safran SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Calian Technologies Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price C$84.97, calculated fair value C$51.33 (−40%), Quality Score 61/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CGY calculated?
We run Calian Technologies Ltd through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of C$51.33 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Calian Technologies Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Calian Technologies Ltd (CGY)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was C$84.97. Our model-based fair value is C$51.33, about 40% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Calian Technologies Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$66.73). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Calian Technologies Ltd (CGY) come from?
Earnings per share at Calian Technologies Ltd grew −0.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.2 %, EBIT margin −3.1 %, tax rate −1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Calian Technologies Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Calian Technologies Ltd (CGY)?
The market capitalisation of Calian Technologies Ltd is C$995M (≈ $705M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Calian Technologies Ltd (CGY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Calian Technologies Ltd is 1.14 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Calian Technologies Ltd (CGY)?
Earnings per share at Calian Technologies Ltd are C$3.30 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Calian Technologies Ltd (CGY)?
The dividend yield of Calian Technologies Ltd is 1.3% (payout 33.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Calian Technologies Ltd (CGY)?
The net margin of Calian Technologies Ltd is 4.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Calian Technologies Ltd (CGY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Calian Technologies Ltd is 12.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Calian Technologies Ltd (CGY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Calian Technologies Ltd is 5.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Calian Technologies Ltd (CGY)?
The operating margin of Calian Technologies Ltd is 5.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Calian Technologies Ltd (CGY)?
Revenue at Calian Technologies Ltd is growing +19.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Calian Technologies Ltd (CGY)?
Earnings per share at Calian Technologies Ltd are growing +920% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Calian Technologies Ltd (CGY) carry?
The net debt of Calian Technologies Ltd is C$128M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 6, 2026