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Chapters Group AG (CHG) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Chapters Group AG stock €15.51, price €45.65, that is 66.0% below the price, quality 30 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Technology DE · ISIN DE0006618309

CG Chapters Group AG logo Thin data Nov 7, 2026

Chapters Group AG

CHG · XETRA
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 66% below what the stock costs today.

Generates free cash flow
Last quarter vs. a year ago: revenue +48%, profit +32%.
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +178.6 %/yr in EUR)
Moderate debt
Fair value €15.51 · Strongly overvalued (−66.0%)
Quality 30/100
Loss-making · -16.2% net margin (TTM)
Trails peers (1/11)
Narrow moat 17/100 · thin data
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€49.35 €7.62 Fair Value €15.51 Sep 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €7.62 – €49.35 · fair‑value band €5.81 – €33.90 · the €45.65 price screens above the €15.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.

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Company profile

CHAPTERS Group AG, together with its subsidiaries, provides various software solutions.

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It also provides electronic gate and door systems, as well as barriers, fire, and smoke protection systems; conversation-oriented language courses; communication school; software solutions to sheet metal processing, property management, property developers, and project development industries, as well as engages in the field of refrigeration and air conditioning technology, and air purification.

In addition, the company offers software solutions for managing fire brigades, as well as mountain, water, and cave rescues; complete system for the administration and billing of daycare centers and kindergartens; software for utilities and heating cost billing for private landlords and small property managers; industry solutions for management companies; supplemental alarming solutions for fire departments, rescue services, and emergency organizations; and corporate and group planning, and business intelligence solutions.

Further, it provides enterprise content management software solutions; business management solutions for real estate developers; solutions for property management companies; orchestra management software; modular software solutions; school administration software; CAD and ERP software; broadband services for municipal utilities, municipalities, and other network owners; technical solutions; and support services for international students and young professionals, as well as wholesales and develops cable management and protection solutions.

Additionally, the company develops and sells software solution for fishing, hunting, and firearms license management; and provides customer information systems to electricity and gas suppliers, water and energy suppliers, and public service broadcasters.

The company was formerly known as MEDIQON Group AG and changed its name to CHAPTERS Group AG in July 2023. CHAPTERS Group AG was founded in 1998 and is based in Hamburg, Germany.

Stock analysis

Chapters Group AG (CHG) currently trades at €45.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €15.51, 66% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €10.22 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the €45.65 price.

Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at €9.55, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: €5.81 (bear) to €33.90 (bull), the price of €45.65 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Chapters Group AG reported revenue of €181M in FY2025 versus €28.7M in FY2021, a compound +58.5%/yr. Reported net income was −€29.6M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap €1.1B Small · P/S ratio 5.15 · EPS (TTM) €−1.47 · Net margin −16.2% · Return on equity −19.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.1% (5-year average) · Operating margin 2.9% · Revenue (TTM) €215M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 17 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 78% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −66%, CHG screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (€2.60 to €42.50). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear €5.81 Fair Value €15.51 Bull €33.90
Price €45.65 · Downside -66.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF €6.52 €13.67 €34.90 71
Growth DCF €5.81 €15.51 €33.90 71
Owner Earnings €16.00 €42.50 €95.62 69
All 6 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €6.52 €13.67 €34.90 71
Owner Earnings €16.00 €42.50 €95.62 69
5Y Revenue Exit n/a €2.60 €8.37 69
10Y Revenue Exit €1.56 €6.76 €10.90 63
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €5.81 €15.51 €33.90 71
Rev-Margin DCF n/a €3.59 €9.61 69

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 30/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 3
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 34
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 45
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 47
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 33
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 62
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 70
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 77
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 40
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 54/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+63.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+62.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+178.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +50.5% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.1%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−14.6% (2020) → −27.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+52.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +49.6% a year for the price.

CHG screens overvalued: fair value 66% below the price. Compare with SAP SE →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 630 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −66.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −4.5% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) −16.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 2.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 48.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.12× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper

P/B 4.86× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months) 5.06× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 155.1× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 18.5× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 29
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 40
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)44 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 29

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Adobe Inc ADBE $239.30 $463.72 +94% vs CHG
Salesforce, Inc CRM $213.65 $342.73 +60% vs CHG
Uber Technologies, Inc UBER $68.59 $101.28 +48% vs CHG
Intuit Inc INTU $341.50 $459.14 +34% vs CHG
ServiceNow, Inc NOW $101.97 $112.60 +10% vs CHG
SAP SE SAP €210.75 €173.59 −18% vs CHG
Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS $319.92 $225.48 −30% vs CHG
Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP $303.35 $150.40 −50% vs CHG
Shopify Inc SHOP $148.91 $64.96 −56% vs CHG
Snowflake Inc SNOW $275.88 $73.81 −73% vs CHG

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Chapters Group AG: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chapters Group AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CHG

Frequently asked questions

Is Chapters Group AG (CHG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €15.51 versus a price of €45.65, about 66% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CHG?
Our model-based fair value for Chapters Group AG is €15.51 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €45.65.
What is the quality score of CHG?
Chapters Group AG has a Quality Score of 30/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chapters Group AG (CHG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €15.51 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario €5.81, optimistic scenario €33.90. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chapters Group AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €15.51, about 66% lower versus a price of €45.65 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €5.81, optimistic scenario €33.90. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Chapters Group AG (CHG)?
Chapters Group AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €215M (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
What growth is priced into Chapters Group AG (CHG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Chapters Group AG would have to grow free cash flow by +52.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +178.6 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CHG use?
Our models discount Chapters Group AG at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.06, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Chapters Group AG that is +52.9 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Chapters Group AG (CHG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Chapters Group AG grew +178.6 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +52.9 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Chapters Group AG (CHG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Chapters Group AG (+52.9 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Chapters Group AG (CHG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.64 %: that much free cash flow Chapters Group AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Chapters Group AG (CHG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chapters Group AG it is €15.51 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of €45.65. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 2 families (DCF Models, Growth DCF).
Is Chapters Group AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, CHG trades above its calculated fair value: price €45.65, fair value €15.51, a gap of about −66% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CHG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€45.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€15.51). For Chapters Group AG the two are €30.14 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Chapters Group AG worth?
The market values Chapters Group AG at about €1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is €45.65; our models calculate a fair value of €15.51 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CHG?
Our models span a range for Chapters Group AG: cautious scenario €5.81, base €15.51, optimistic €33.90 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price €45.65). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Chapters Group AG (CHG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Chapters Group AG (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity −19.0%, debt of 1.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 30/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CHG from its 52-week high?
Chapters Group AG trades at €45.65, about 7% below its 52-week high of €49.35 and 78% above the low of €25.70 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €15.51 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Chapters Group AG?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Salesforce, Inc, Shopify Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Chapters Group AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price €45.65, calculated fair value €15.51 (−66%), Quality Score 30/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CHG calculated?
We run Chapters Group AG through 6 models from 2 families: DCF Models, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €15.51 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Chapters Group AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Chapters Group AG (CHG)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €45.65. Our model-based fair value is €15.51, about 66% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Chapters Group AG right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€33.90). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (30/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (€5.81 to €33.90). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Chapters Group AG

How large is the market capitalisation of Chapters Group AG (CHG)?
The market capitalisation of Chapters Group AG is €1.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Chapters Group AG (CHG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Chapters Group AG is 5.15 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Chapters Group AG (CHG)?
Earnings per share at Chapters Group AG are €−1.47. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Chapters Group AG (CHG)?
The net margin of Chapters Group AG is −16.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Chapters Group AG (CHG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Chapters Group AG is −19.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Chapters Group AG (CHG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Chapters Group AG is 1.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Chapters Group AG (CHG)?
The operating margin of Chapters Group AG is 2.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Chapters Group AG (CHG)?
Revenue at Chapters Group AG is growing +48.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +62.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Chapters Group AG (CHG)?
Earnings per share at Chapters Group AG are growing +32.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Chapters Group AG (CHG) carry?
The net debt of Chapters Group AG is €141M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 20.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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