Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Capital One Financial Corporation stock $107, price $204, that is 47.6% below the price, quality 39 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $80.75 – $254.96 · fair‑value band $106.18 – $137.15 · the $203.84 price screens above the $106.81 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Capital One Financial Corporation operates as the financial services holding company for the Capital One, National Association, which engages in the provision of various financial products and services in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom.
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It operates through three segments: Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking. The company accepts checking accounts, money market deposits, negotiable order of withdrawals, savings deposits, time deposits, and sweep accounts.
Its loan products include credit card and personal loans; auto and retail banking loans; and commercial and multifamily real estate, and commercial and industrial loans.
The company offers credit and debit card products; bank lending; and provides advisory, capital markets, net interchange, treasury management, and depository services.
It serves consumers, small businesses, and commercial clients through digital channels, branches, cafés, and other distribution channels located in New York, Louisiana, Texas, Maryland, Virginia, New Jersey, and the District of Columbia.
Capital One Financial Corporation was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.
Stock analysis
Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) currently trades at $203.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $106.81, 48% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $579.51 per share, and 5 of the 13 models we run sit above the $203.84 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $43.34, and 8 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $106.18 (bear) to $137.15 (bull), the price of $203.84 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Capital One Financial Corporation reported revenue of $69.3B in FY2025 versus $32.0B in FY2021, a compound +21.3%/yr. Reported net income was $2.5B in FY2025, compounding −33.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $127B Large · P/E ratio 12.5 · P/S ratio 2.59 · EPS (TTM) $16.32 · Dividend yield 1.6% · Net margin 22.2% · Return on equity 9.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 62 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −48%, COF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$106.18Fair Value $106.81Bull$137.15
Price $203.84 · Downside -47.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($11.14 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Growth DCF$785.33$1,310$2,15276
Residual Income$124.92$125.66$130.5476
Owner Earnings$417.59$712.61$1,20074
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings$417.59$712.61$1,20074
5Y P/E Exit$296.72$365.79$431.3872
10Y P/E Exit$462.20$579.51$716.1465
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$27.19$117.99$161.3564
Lynch FV$30.34$43.34$56.3561
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$25.71$51.97$79.9266
DDM Multi-Stage$25.71$44.54$54.7667
Multiples
P/E Multiple$38.99$51.98$64.9863
P/B Multiple$117.29$156.39$195.4855
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$55.85$74.84$111.7054
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$785.33$1,310$2,15276
Rev-Margin DCF$295.06$367.90$439.1174
Economic Profit
Residual Income$124.92$125.66$130.5476
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
SaleRavi RaghuPres, Software, Intl & Sm Bus3× since Jan 5, 2026: 23,226 shares, avg. $233.09$5.4MAug 7, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleTimothy P GoldenSVP, Chief Accounting Officer3,487 shares at $211.00$735,757Jul 29, 2026
SaleKaitlin HaggertyChief Human Resources Officer1,426 shares at $183.82$262,125May 13, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJason P. HansonPres.- Global Payment Network3,729 shares at $205.00$764,445Feb 25, 202610b5-1 plan
Plus 2 more entries from the last 12 months.
Plus 14 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+28.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.7% a year
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−22.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−24.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−17.4% vs −4.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 3%
AI conclusion: Scale offers stability in credit services, yet persistently low returns on equity and thin margins reflect a limited moat amid industry competition.
Main risk: A proposed settlement capping Visa and Mastercard interchange rates could reduce Capital One's fee income from card transactions.
Bull case: Capital One could leverage its Discover network ownership and Brex acquisition to offer integrated payments and spend management that compete effectively with BNPL alternatives.
Bear case: If interchange reductions and BNPL competition both intensify, Capital One's core card and lending margins could face sustained pressure without offsetting synergies.
Capital One is realizing synergies from the Discover integration faster than planned while credit performance stays resilient. Management however signals rising marketing spend next year to support network expansion and premium card origination. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Will the early efficiency gains prove durable or will the need for ongoing investment keep margins under pressure?
Compare Capital One Financial Corporation with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Credit Services · 286 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−47.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.4% · Below median
Return on assets0.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)22.2% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)37.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)6.2% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.43× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Credit Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)12.5× · Pricier than median
P/B1.11× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)2.59× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)4.8× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA15.7× · Pricier than median
PEG0.18× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 57
FUTURE (revenue growth)31· sector 58
PAST (return on equity)38· sector 39
HEALTH (low debt)79· sector 52
DIVIDEND (yield)31· sector 63
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Capital One Financial Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/COF
Frequently asked questions
Is Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $106.81 versus a price of $203.84, about 48% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of COF?
Our model-based fair value for Capital One Financial Corporation is $106.81 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $203.84.
What is the quality score of COF?
Capital One Financial Corporation has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Capital One Financial Corporation (COF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $106.81 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $106.18, optimistic scenario $137.15. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Capital One Financial Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $106.81, about 48% lower versus a price of $203.84 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $106.18, optimistic scenario $137.15. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Capital One Financial Corporation (COF)?
Capital One Financial Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $48.9B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Capital One Financial Corporation pay a dividend?
Capital One Financial Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 1.57% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Capital One Financial Corporation (COF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Capital One Financial Corporation it is $106.81 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $203.84. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Capital One Financial Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, COF trades above its calculated fair value: price $203.84, fair value $106.81, a gap of about −48% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of COF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($203.84); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($106.81). For Capital One Financial Corporation the two are $97.03 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Capital One Financial Corporation worth?
The market values Capital One Financial Corporation at about $127B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $203.84; our models calculate a fair value of $106.81 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about COF?
Our models span a range for Capital One Financial Corporation: cautious scenario $106.18, base $106.81, optimistic $137.15 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $203.84). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of COF?
Capital One Financial Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.5 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $106.81 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 68.6 (reported for FY2025: 45.0). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 4 of the years ex one-offs: 10.6. Other multiples: PEG 0.2, P/B 1.1, P/S 2.6, EV/EBITDA 15.7.
What is the PEG ratio of COF?
The PEG ratio of Capital One Financial Corporation is 0.18 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Capital One Financial Corporation (COF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Capital One Financial Corporation (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 9.4%, debt of 0.43 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is COF from its 52-week high?
Capital One Financial Corporation trades at $203.84, about 20% below its 52-week high of $254.96 and 17% above the low of $174.73 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $106.81 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Capital One Financial Corporation?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Visa Inc, Mastercard Incorporated, American Express Company, Bajaj Finance Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Capital One Financial Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $203.84, calculated fair value $106.81 (−48%), Quality Score 39/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of COF calculated?
We run Capital One Financial Corporation through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $106.81, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Capital One Financial Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Capital One Financial Corporation (COF)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $203.84. Our model-based fair value is $106.81, about 48% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Capital One Financial Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($137.15). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) come from?
Earnings per share at Capital One Financial Corporation grew +2.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.2 %, EBIT margin −11.0 %, tax rate +2.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Capital One Financial Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Capital One Financial Corporation (COF)?
The market capitalisation of Capital One Financial Corporation is $127B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Capital One Financial Corporation (COF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Capital One Financial Corporation is 2.59 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Capital One Financial Corporation (COF)?
Earnings per share at Capital One Financial Corporation are $16.32 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Capital One Financial Corporation (COF)?
The dividend yield of Capital One Financial Corporation is 1.6% (payout 29.9%, on adjusted earnings, reported 19.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Capital One Financial Corporation (COF)?
The net margin of Capital One Financial Corporation is 22.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Capital One Financial Corporation (COF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Capital One Financial Corporation is 9.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Capital One Financial Corporation (COF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Capital One Financial Corporation is 1.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Capital One Financial Corporation (COF)?
The operating margin of Capital One Financial Corporation is 37.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Capital One Financial Corporation (COF)?
Revenue at Capital One Financial Corporation is growing +6.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +21.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Capital One Financial Corporation (COF)?
Earnings per share at Capital One Financial Corporation are growing +16.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) generate?
The free cash flow of Capital One Financial Corporation is $26.1B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) hold?
Capital One Financial Corporation holds more cash than debt, $6.4B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026