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Canadian Phosphate Ltd (CP8) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 11, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Canadian Phosphate Ltd stock A$0.08, price A$0.12, that is 36.0% below the price, quality 36 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Basic Materials AU · ISIN AU0000384935

CP Canadian Phosphate Ltd logo Thin data Nov 10, 2026

Canadian Phosphate Ltd

CP8 · AU
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 36% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Revenue last quarter 42% below a year ago.
Fair value A$0.0768 · Strongly overvalued
Quality 36/100
Weak Growth (revenue 3y −13.4 %/yr in AUD)
Loss-making · -136.9% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (1/10)
Narrow moat 12/100 · thin data
Thin data
⟳ CyclicalEstimate
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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

A$0.4400 A$0.0160 Fair Value A$0.0768 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.0160 – A$0.4400 · fair‑value band A$0.0576 – A$0.0960 · the A$0.1200 price screens above the A$0.0768 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

Canadian Phosphate Limited supplies regenerative phosphate and organic fertilizers products in Australia and North America.

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The company holds interests in two rock phosphate mining projects, comprising the Wapiti project comprising an area of approximately 78 km²; and Fernie projects that covers an area of approximately 108 km² in British Columbia, Canada. It also offers fused calcium magnesium silica phosphate products.

The company was formerly known as Fertoz Limited and changed its name to Canadian Phosphate Limited in February 2025. Canadian Phosphate Limited was incorporated in 2010 and is based in Perth, Australia.

Stock analysis

Canadian Phosphate Ltd (CP8) currently trades at A$0.1200, while our estimate is A$0.0768, 36% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: A$0.0576 (bear) to A$0.0960 (bull), the price of A$0.1200 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Canadian Phosphate Ltd reported revenue of A$2.3M in FY2025 versus A$2.2M in FY2021, a compound +0.7%/yr. Reported net income was −A$2.2M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$47.3M (≈ $32.6M) Micro · P/S ratio 31.3 · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0100 · Net margin −95.8% · Return on equity −20.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −24.1% (5-year average) · Operating margin −123% · Revenue (TTM) A$1.8M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 12 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 167% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 4% fair-value upside, at −36%, CP8 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value

Bear A$0.0576 Fair Value A$0.0768 Bull A$0.0960
Price A$0.1200 · Downside -36.0%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 36/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 5
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 26
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 0
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 94
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 67
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 12
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 48
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 75
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 38
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +22.9% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+57.5%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−78.8% (2020) → −91.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

CP8 screens overvalued: fair value 36% below the price. Compare with Nutrien Ltd →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Agricultural Inputs · 175 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −36.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −20.8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −136.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −122.6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −41.9% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.03× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper

P/B 4.75× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 26.80× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 17
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 14
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 25
HEALTH (low debt)98 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 40

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Agricultural Inputs stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co 000792 ¥22.35 ¥26.81 +20% vs CP8
Asia-potash International Investment (Guangzhou)Co.,Ltd., 000893 ¥31.99 ¥38.01 +19% vs CP8
Nutrien Ltd NTR $72.17 $83.09 +15% vs CP8
The Mosaic Company MOS $22.99 $25.77 +12% vs CP8
Yara International ASA YAR kr 403.50 kr 419.83 +4% vs CP8
ICL Group ICL $4.67 $4.84 +4% vs CP8
CF Industries Holdings CF $122.36 $114.88 −6% vs CP8
UPL Limited UPL ₹541.50 ₹478.29 −12% vs CP8
Yunnan Yuntianhua Co 600096 ¥26.28 ¥17.67 −33% vs CP8
Coromandel International Limited COROMANDEL ₹1,879 ₹1,129 −40% vs CP8

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Canadian Phosphate Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Canadian Phosphate Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CP8

Frequently asked questions

Is Canadian Phosphate Ltd (CP8) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is A$0.0768 versus a price of A$0.1200, about 36% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CP8?
Our estimate for Canadian Phosphate Ltd is A$0.0768 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.1200.
What is the quality score of CP8?
Canadian Phosphate Ltd has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Canadian Phosphate Ltd (CP8)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of A$0.0768 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario A$0.0576, optimistic scenario A$0.0960. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Canadian Phosphate Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at A$0.0768, about 36% lower versus a price of A$0.1200 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0576, optimistic scenario A$0.0960. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Canadian Phosphate Ltd (CP8)?
Canadian Phosphate Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$1.8M (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Canadian Phosphate Ltd (CP8)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Canadian Phosphate Ltd it is A$0.0768 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of A$0.1200.
Is Canadian Phosphate Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, CP8 trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.1200, fair value A$0.0768, a gap of about −36% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CP8?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.1200); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0768). For Canadian Phosphate Ltd the two are A$0.0432 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Canadian Phosphate Ltd worth?
The market values Canadian Phosphate Ltd at about A$47.3M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is A$0.1200; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0768 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CP8?
Our models span a range for Canadian Phosphate Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0576, base A$0.0768, optimistic A$0.0960 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price A$0.1200). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Canadian Phosphate Ltd (CP8)?
Balance-sheet figures for Canadian Phosphate Ltd (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity −20.9%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CP8 from its 52-week high?
Canadian Phosphate Ltd trades at A$0.1200, about 38% below its 52-week high of A$0.1950 and 167% above the low of A$0.0450 (as of Nov 11, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0768 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Canadian Phosphate Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nutrien Ltd, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co, CF Industries Holdings, Yara International ASA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Canadian Phosphate Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price A$0.1200, calculated fair value A$0.0768 (−36%), Quality Score 36/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Canadian Phosphate Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Canadian Phosphate Ltd (CP8)?
The closing price on Nov 11, 2026 was A$0.1200. Our estimate is A$0.0768, about 36% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Canadian Phosphate Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0960). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Canadian Phosphate Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Canadian Phosphate Ltd (CP8)?
The market capitalisation of Canadian Phosphate Ltd is A$47.3M (≈ $32.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Canadian Phosphate Ltd (CP8)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Canadian Phosphate Ltd is 31.3 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Canadian Phosphate Ltd (CP8)?
Earnings per share at Canadian Phosphate Ltd are A$−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Canadian Phosphate Ltd (CP8)?
The net margin of Canadian Phosphate Ltd is −95.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Canadian Phosphate Ltd (CP8)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Canadian Phosphate Ltd is −20.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Canadian Phosphate Ltd (CP8)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Canadian Phosphate Ltd is −24.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Canadian Phosphate Ltd (CP8)?
The operating margin of Canadian Phosphate Ltd is −123% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Canadian Phosphate Ltd (CP8)?
Revenue at Canadian Phosphate Ltd is growing −41.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −13.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Canadian Phosphate Ltd (CP8) generate?
The free cash flow of Canadian Phosphate Ltd is −A$506K (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Canadian Phosphate Ltd (CP8) hold?
Canadian Phosphate Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$1.1M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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