Constellation Software Inc. (CSU) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Constellation Software Inc. stock C$2,951, price C$3,466, that is 14.9% below the price, quality 64 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$1,766 – C$5,171 · fair‑value band C$1,959 – C$3,943 · the C$3,466 price screens above the C$2,951 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Constellation Software Inc., together with its subsidiaries, acquires, builds, and manages vertical market software businesses to develop mission-critical software solutions for public and private sector markets. It is involved in the software licensing; and sale of hardware activities.
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The company also offers professional services consist of implementation services, custom programming, product training, managed services, and consulting services; maintenance and customer support services, and hosted software-as-a-service products; and other recurring services.
It operates in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe, and internationally. The company was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
Stock analysis
Constellation Software Inc. (CSU) currently trades at C$3,466, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$2,951, 15% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of C$3,977 per share, and 7 of the 24 models we run sit above the C$3,466 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at C$326.66, and 17 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: C$1,959 (bear) to C$3,943 (bull), the price of C$3,466 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Constellation Software Inc. reported revenue of $11.8B in FY2025 versus $5.1B in FY2021, a compound +23.4%/yr. Reported net income was $521M in FY2025, compounding +13.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap C$73.4B (≈ $52.4B) Large · P/E ratio 56.0 · P/S ratio 2.47 · EPS (TTM) C$61.87 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin 4.4% · Return on equity 23.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 71 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 54% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −15%, CSU screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearC$1,959Fair Value C$2,951BullC$3,943
Price C$3,466 · Downside -14.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$47.78 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +20.5% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9.4% vs 11.4%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 16%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+14.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.5% a year for the price and +11.9% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Vertical software acquisition builds durable organization capital and switching-cost pricing power, yet limited R&D innovation and variable performance across acquired units constrain overall quality.
Main risk: AI creating fresh competition could erode the switching-cost advantages of its acquired vertical incumbents and reduce their pricing power.
Constellation grows by acquiring and operating established vertical market software businesses. Its new Chief AI Officer will direct venture investments into AI-native tools while helping existing units adopt the technology under quality and compliance rules. Our models currently see the shares as overvalued. Will AI mainly lift productivity and features across the portfolio or create fresh competition that erodes the edge of acquired incumbents?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 635 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Above median
Fair Value upside−14.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)23.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets3.2% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)7.6% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)15.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)17.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.12× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)56.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B14.68× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Constellation Software Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CSU
Frequently asked questions
Is Constellation Software Inc. (CSU) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$2,951 versus a price of C$3,466, about 15% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CSU?
Our model-based fair value for Constellation Software Inc. is C$2,951 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$3,466.
What is the quality score of CSU?
Constellation Software Inc. has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Constellation Software Inc. (CSU)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$2,951 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$1,959, optimistic scenario C$3,943. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Constellation Software Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$2,951, about 15% lower versus a price of C$3,466 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$1,959, optimistic scenario C$3,943. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Constellation Software Inc. (CSU)?
Constellation Software Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $12.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Constellation Software Inc. pay a dividend?
Constellation Software Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of 0.16% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Constellation Software Inc. (CSU)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Constellation Software Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +7.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +24.4 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CSU use?
Our models discount Constellation Software Inc. at 8.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.72, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Constellation Software Inc. that is +7.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Constellation Software Inc. (CSU) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Constellation Software Inc. grew +24.4 % a year. The price currently implies +7.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Constellation Software Inc. (CSU) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Constellation Software Inc. (+7.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Constellation Software Inc. (CSU)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.90 %: that much free cash flow Constellation Software Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Constellation Software Inc. (CSU)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Constellation Software Inc. it is C$2,951 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of C$3,466. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Constellation Software Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, CSU trades above its calculated fair value: price C$3,466, fair value C$2,951, a gap of about −15% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CSU?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$3,466); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$2,951). For Constellation Software Inc. the two are C$514.80 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Constellation Software Inc. worth?
The market values Constellation Software Inc. at about C$73.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is C$3,466; our models calculate a fair value of C$2,951 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CSU?
Our models span a range for Constellation Software Inc.: cautious scenario C$1,959, base C$2,951, optimistic C$3,943 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price C$3,466). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CSU?
Constellation Software Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 56.0 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$2,951 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2020 to 2025), reported earnings: 91.3. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 14.7, P/S 4.1, EV/EBITDA 23.0.
What is the PEG ratio of CSU?
The PEG ratio of Constellation Software Inc. is 0.60 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Constellation Software Inc. (CSU)?
Balance-sheet figures for Constellation Software Inc. (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 23.3%, debt of 1.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CSU from its 52-week high?
Constellation Software Inc. trades at C$3,466, about 3% below its 52-week high of C$3,566 and 54% above the low of C$2,256 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$2,951 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Constellation Software Inc.?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Shopify Inc, Salesforce, Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Constellation Software Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price C$3,466, calculated fair value C$2,951 (−15%), Quality Score 64/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CSU calculated?
We run Constellation Software Inc. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$2,951, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Constellation Software Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Constellation Software Inc. (CSU)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was C$3,466. Our model-based fair value is C$2,951, about 15% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Constellation Software Inc. right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (C$1,959 to C$3,943) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Constellation Software Inc. (CSU) come from?
Earnings per share at Constellation Software Inc. grew +14.5 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +21.1 %, EBIT margin +10.6 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −14.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Constellation Software Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Constellation Software Inc. (CSU)?
The market capitalisation of Constellation Software Inc. is C$73.4B (≈ $52.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Constellation Software Inc. (CSU)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Constellation Software Inc. is 2.47 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Constellation Software Inc. (CSU)?
Earnings per share at Constellation Software Inc. are C$61.87 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 56.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Constellation Software Inc. (CSU)?
The dividend yield of Constellation Software Inc. is 0.2% (payout 9.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Constellation Software Inc. (CSU)?
The net margin of Constellation Software Inc. is 4.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Constellation Software Inc. (CSU)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Constellation Software Inc. is 23.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Constellation Software Inc. (CSU)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Constellation Software Inc. is 6.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Constellation Software Inc. (CSU)?
The operating margin of Constellation Software Inc. is 15.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Constellation Software Inc. (CSU)?
Revenue at Constellation Software Inc. is growing +17.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +21.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Constellation Software Inc. (CSU)?
Earnings per share at Constellation Software Inc. are growing +389% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Constellation Software Inc. (CSU) carry?
The net debt of Constellation Software Inc. is $2.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 6, 2026