CSX Corporation (CSX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of CSX Corporation stock $12.92, price $52.05, that is 75.2% below the price, quality 57 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $25.07 – $53.08 · fair‑value band $8.11 – $20.19 · the $52.05 price screens above the $12.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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CSX Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides rail-based freight transportation services in the United States and Canada. It operates through two segments: rail and trucking.
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The company offers rail services; and transportation of intermodal containers and trailers, as well as other transportation services, such as rail-to-truck transfers and bulk commodity operations.
It also transports chemicals, agricultural and food products, minerals, automotive, forest products, fertilizers, and metals and equipment; and coal, coke, and iron ore to electricity-generating power plants, steel manufacturers, and industrial plants, as well as exports coal to deep-water port facilities.
In addition, the company provides intermodal services through a network of approximately 30 terminals transporting manufactured consumer goods in containers; and drayage services, including the pickup and delivery of intermodal shipments.
It serves the automotive industry with distribution centers and storage locations, as well as connects non-rail served customers through transferring products, such as plastics and ethanol from rail to trucks.
The company operates approximately 20,000 route mile rail network, which serves various population centers in 26 states east of the Mississippi River, the District of Columbia, and the Canadian provinces of Ontario and Quebec, as well as owns 3400 locomotives.
It serves production and distribution facilities through track connections. CSX Corporation was incorporated in 1978 and is headquartered in Jacksonville, Florida.
Stock analysis
CSX Corporation (CSX) currently trades at $52.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.92, 75% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $31.32 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $52.05 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.66, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $8.11 (bear) to $20.19 (bull), the price of $52.05 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
CSX Corporation reported revenue of $14.1B in FY2025 versus $12.5B in FY2021, a compound +3.0%/yr. Reported net income was $2.9B in FY2025, compounding −6.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $96.8B Large · P/E ratio 26.8 · P/S ratio 6.48 · EPS (TTM) $1.94 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 24.0% · Return on equity 26.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 81 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 57% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −75%, CSX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($3.61 to $33.43). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$8.11Fair Value $12.92Bull$20.19
Price $52.05 · Downside -75.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.18 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 4 officers or directors sold shares worth $10.1M and none bought.
SaleJohn J ZillmerDirector2× since Jun 3, 2026: 29,500 shares, avg. $49.62$1.5MOct 26, 2026
SaleMichael S. BurnsSVP - CLO & Corp Secy13,000 shares at $52.68$684,840Jul 24, 2026
SaleAngela C WilliamsVP & Chief Accounting Officer30,000 shares at $53.29$1.6MJul 24, 2026
SaleKevin S. BooneEVP & CFO136,708 shares at $46.70$6.4MJun 3, 2026
BuyStephen F AngelPresident & CEO, Director25,000 shares at $40.27$1.0MMar 6, 2026
SaleDiana B SorfleetEVP & CAO2× since Jan 28, 2026: 156,667 shares, avg. $39.82$6.2MFeb 19, 2026
SaleStephen FortuneEVP - CD & TO31,456 shares at $38.65$1.2MFeb 3, 2026
Plus 5 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.8% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+4.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.2.2% vs 9.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.41% → 32%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+32.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +29.7% a year for the price and +3.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Network scale supports a moderate moat and pricing power visible in margins, yet innovation and human capital remain average for the sector under regulatory constraints.
Main risk: New Surface Transportation Board rules on competitive access or revenue adequacy could force CSX to grant rivals track access or cap rates on key routes, squeezing margins on its eastern US network.
Bull case: CSX could leverage its network scale and AI-driven productivity tools to win more intermodal and merchandise traffic while navigating any STB changes through targeted investments and partnerships.
Bear case: If STB competitive access rules tighten and autonomous trucking gains share, CSX could see sustained volume losses on key corridors and margin compression that limits reinvestment in its network.
CSX has shifted its focus from network repairs to productivity, rolling out over 100 initiatives aimed at 2027 targets and posting the best quarterly fuel efficiency ever recorded by a US railroad. Recent volume and pricing gains helped results, yet fuel surcharges accounted for roughly half the revenue increase. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Will the productivity push deliver lasting margin expansion or will it be offset by normalizing fuel prices and uneven demand?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 108 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside−75.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)26.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets6.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)24.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)39.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)12.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.38× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)26.8× · Pricier than median
P/B7.35× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)6.48× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow56.6× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA16.0× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.84× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 16
FUTURE (revenue growth)60· sector 20
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)31· sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)21· sector 44
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CSX Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CSX
Frequently asked questions
Is CSX Corporation (CSX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $12.92 versus a price of $52.05, about 75% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CSX?
Our model-based fair value for CSX Corporation is $12.92 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $52.05.
What is the quality score of CSX?
CSX Corporation has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CSX Corporation (CSX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $12.92 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.11, optimistic scenario $20.19. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CSX Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $12.92, about 75% lower versus a price of $52.05 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $8.11, optimistic scenario $20.19. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CSX Corporation (CSX)?
CSX Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $14.9B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does CSX Corporation pay a dividend?
CSX Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 1.06% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into CSX Corporation (CSX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CSX Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +32.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.9 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CSX use?
Our models discount CSX Corporation at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.20, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For CSX Corporation that is +32.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has CSX Corporation (CSX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at CSX Corporation grew +5.9 % a year. The price currently implies +32.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of CSX Corporation (CSX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into CSX Corporation (+32.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of CSX Corporation (CSX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.77 %: that much free cash flow CSX Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of CSX Corporation (CSX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CSX Corporation it is $12.92 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $52.05. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CSX Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, CSX trades above its calculated fair value: price $52.05, fair value $12.92, a gap of about −75% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CSX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($52.05); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($12.92). For CSX Corporation the two are $39.13 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CSX Corporation worth?
The market values CSX Corporation at about $96.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $52.05; our models calculate a fair value of $12.92 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CSX?
Our models span a range for CSX Corporation: cautious scenario $8.11, base $12.92, optimistic $20.19 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $52.05). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CSX?
CSX Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.8 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $12.92 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 5 fiscal years (2021 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2023, FY2024, FY2025 ex one-offs: 18.1. Other multiples: PEG 1.8, P/B 7.4, P/S 6.5, EV/EBITDA 16.0.
What is the PEG ratio of CSX?
The PEG ratio of CSX Corporation is 1.84 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of CSX Corporation (CSX)?
Balance-sheet figures for CSX Corporation (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 26.4%, debt of 1.38 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CSX from its 52-week high?
CSX Corporation trades at $52.05, about 2% below its 52-week high of $53.08 and 57% above the low of $33.25 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $12.92 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CSX Corporation?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Norfolk Southern Corporation, Canadian National Railway Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CSX Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $52.05, calculated fair value $12.92 (−75%), Quality Score 57/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CSX calculated?
We run CSX Corporation through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $12.92, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. CSX Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CSX Corporation (CSX)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $52.05. Our model-based fair value is $12.92, about 75% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CSX Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($20.19). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($8.11 to $20.19) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of CSX Corporation (CSX) come from?
Earnings per share at CSX Corporation grew +11.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.0 %, EBIT margin +2.1 %, tax rate +2.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of CSX Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of CSX Corporation (CSX)?
The market capitalisation of CSX Corporation is $96.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CSX Corporation (CSX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CSX Corporation is 6.48 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CSX Corporation (CSX)?
Earnings per share at CSX Corporation are $1.94 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of CSX Corporation (CSX)?
The dividend yield of CSX Corporation is 1.1% (payout 28.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of CSX Corporation (CSX)?
The net margin of CSX Corporation is 24.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CSX Corporation (CSX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CSX Corporation is 26.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CSX Corporation (CSX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CSX Corporation is 12.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CSX Corporation (CSX)?
The operating margin of CSX Corporation is 39.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CSX Corporation (CSX)?
Revenue at CSX Corporation is growing +12.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CSX Corporation (CSX)?
Earnings per share at CSX Corporation are growing +53.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does CSX Corporation (CSX) carry?
The net debt of CSX Corporation is $18.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 10.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026