CTP N.V. (CTPNV) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of CTP N.V. stock €10.23, price €13.32, that is 23.2% below the price, quality 48 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Keep an eye on it?Free in your watchlist: 5 stocks without an account, 10 with oneYes, for free
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €8.42 – €19.21 · fair‑value band €9.65 – €32.88 · the €13.32 price screens above the €10.23 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
Follow CTP in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether CTP is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
CTP N.V. is Europe's largest listed owner, developer, and manager of logistics and industrial real estate by gross lettable area, owning 13.8 million sqm of GLA across 10 countries as at 30 September 2025.
Show moreShow less
CTP certifies all new buildings to BREEAM Very good or better and earned a negligible-risk ESG rating by Sustainalytics, underlining its commitment to being a sustainable business. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
CTP N.V. operates as a subsidiary of CTP Holding B.V.
Stock analysis
CTP N.V. (CTPNV) currently trades at €13.32, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €10.23, 23% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of €19.60 per share, and 4 of the 15 models we run sit above the €13.32 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €2.59, and 11 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €9.65 (bear) to €32.88 (bull), the price of €13.32 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
CTP N.V. reported revenue of €970M in FY2025 versus €407M in FY2021, a compound +24.2%/yr. Reported net income was €1.1B in FY2025, compounding +1.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €6.6B Mid · P/E ratio 11.6 · P/S ratio 6.37 · EPS (TTM) €1.15 · Dividend yield 5.0% · Net margin 53.9% · Return on equity 6.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 65 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at −23%, CTPNV screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€9.65Fair Value €10.23Bull€32.88
Price €13.32 · Downside -23.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.4119 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.4%
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+18.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.108% → 68%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+27.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+10.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +24.5% a year for the price and +8.4% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: The business demonstrates strength through continued major lease signings supported by e-commerce demand, yet its main weak point remains high leverage with debt exceeding equity that may limit durability.
Main risk: High leverage with total debt exceeding equity forms the single biggest risk to the business, potentially restricting flexibility for expansion and operations when markets shift.
CTP keeps signing major leases across its parks as e-commerce demand holds. Shareholders largely opted for the recent scrip dividend, backing the self-funded growth strategy. Our models see it as overvalued. Will this approach deliver more durable expansion than external financing risks or limit flexibility when markets shift?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 489 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside−23.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)6.8% · Above median
Return on assets5.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)53.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)69.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)12.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)5.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.00× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CTP N.V. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CTPNV
Frequently asked questions
Is CTP N.V. (CTPNV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €10.23 versus a price of €13.32, about 23% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CTPNV?
Our model-based fair value for CTP N.V. is €10.23 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €13.32.
What is the quality score of CTPNV?
CTP N.V. has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CTP N.V. (CTPNV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €10.23 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario €9.65, optimistic scenario €32.88. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CTP N.V. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €10.23, about 23% lower versus a price of €13.32 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €9.65, optimistic scenario €32.88. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CTP N.V. (CTPNV)?
CTP N.V. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €1.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does CTP N.V. pay a dividend?
CTP N.V. currently shows a dividend yield of 4.99% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into CTP N.V. (CTPNV)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CTP N.V. would have to grow free cash flow by +27.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +21.1 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CTPNV use?
Our models discount CTP N.V. at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.99, country premium for Netherlands. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For CTP N.V. that is +27.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has CTP N.V. (CTPNV) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at CTP N.V. grew +21.1 % a year. The price currently implies +27.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of CTP N.V. (CTPNV) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into CTP N.V. (+27.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of CTP N.V. (CTPNV)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.38 %: that much free cash flow CTP N.V. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of CTP N.V. (CTPNV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CTP N.V. it is €10.23 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of €13.32. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CTP N.V. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, CTPNV trades above its calculated fair value: price €13.32, fair value €10.23, a gap of about −23% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CTPNV?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€13.32); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€10.23). For CTP N.V. the two are €3.09 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CTP N.V. worth?
The market values CTP N.V. at about €6.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is €13.32; our models calculate a fair value of €10.23 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CTPNV?
Our models span a range for CTP N.V.: cautious scenario €9.65, base €10.23, optimistic €32.88 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price €13.32). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CTPNV?
CTP N.V. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.6 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €10.23 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 15.7 (reported for FY2025: 7.5). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 5 fiscal years (2021 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 7.0. Other multiples: PEG 2.8, P/B 0.8, P/S 6.4, EV/EBITDA 20.0.
What is the PEG ratio of CTPNV?
The PEG ratio of CTP N.V. is 2.76 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of CTP N.V. (CTPNV)?
Balance-sheet figures for CTP N.V. (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 6.8%, debt of 1.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CTPNV from its 52-week high?
CTP N.V. trades at €13.32, about 31% below its 52-week high of €19.21 and 9% above the low of €12.20 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €10.23 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CTP N.V.?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, CK Asset Holdings, DLF Limited, Hongkong Land Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CTP N.V. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price €13.32, calculated fair value €10.23 (−23%), Quality Score 48/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CTPNV calculated?
We run CTP N.V. through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €10.23, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. CTP N.V. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CTP N.V. (CTPNV)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was €13.32. Our model-based fair value is €10.23, about 23% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CTP N.V. right now?
Weak quality (48/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (€9.65 to €32.88). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of CTP N.V.
How large is the market capitalisation of CTP N.V. (CTPNV)?
The market capitalisation of CTP N.V. is €6.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CTP N.V. (CTPNV)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CTP N.V. is 6.37 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CTP N.V. (CTPNV)?
Earnings per share at CTP N.V. are €1.15 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of CTP N.V. (CTPNV)?
The dividend yield of CTP N.V. is 5.0% (payout 121%, on adjusted earnings, reported 57.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of CTP N.V. (CTPNV)?
The net margin of CTP N.V. is 53.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CTP N.V. (CTPNV)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CTP N.V. is 6.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CTP N.V. (CTPNV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CTP N.V. is 6.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CTP N.V. (CTPNV)?
The operating margin of CTP N.V. is 69.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CTP N.V. (CTPNV)?
Revenue at CTP N.V. is growing +12.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CTP N.V. (CTPNV)?
Earnings per share at CTP N.V. are growing +7.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does CTP N.V. (CTPNV) carry?
The net debt of CTP N.V. is €8.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 29.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch CTP N.V. in the live analysis
One click puts CTP N.V. on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Broad data
Nov 6, 2026