Cummins India Limited (CUMMINSIND) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Cummins India Limited stock ₹2,710, price ₹4,059, that is 33.2% below the price, quality 77 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹771.73 – ₹5,978 · fair‑value band ₹1,740 – ₹4,091 · the ₹4,059 price screens above the ₹2,710 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Cummins India Limited engages in the design, manufacture, distribution, and service of engines, generator sets, and related technologies in India, Nepal, and Bhutan. The company operates through two segments, Engines and Lubes.
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It provides accelera, G-drive, fire pump drive, hydrogen, and natural gas engines; and generators and power systems, including integrated power systems, alternators, transfer switches, generator set controls, system level controls and switchgears, and browse generators.
The company also offers engine components, such as fuel systems, turbochargers, and engine braking and valvetrain technologies; and aftertreatment emission solutions, as well as operates component care centers.
In addition, it offers drivetrain and braking systems comprising axles, brakes, carriers, drivelines, gearboxes and power take-offs, gears, suspensions, tire inflation systems, transfer cases, trailer solutions, and transmissions; parts and sales and services; software and electronic products; and digital products.
The company serves commercial buildings, data centers, realty, infrastructure, hospitality, defense, greenhouse, healthcare, manufacturing, marine, mining, oil and gas, rental power, RVs, small business, telecom, water treatment, automotive, power transmission, and distribution industries, as well as end users, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), channel partners, dealers, and retailers.
It exports to the United States, Europe, Mexico, Africa, the Middle East, and China. The company was incorporated in 1962 and is headquartered in Pune, India. Cummins India Limited is a subsidiary of Cummins Inc.
Stock analysis
Cummins India Limited (CUMMINSIND) currently trades at ₹4,059, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹2,710, 33% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ₹1,642 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the ₹4,059 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at ₹590.45, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ₹1,740 (bear) to ₹4,091 (bull), the price of ₹4,059 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Cummins India Limited reported revenue of ₹121B in FY2026 versus ₹61.7B in FY2022, a compound +18.4%/yr. Reported net income was ₹23.6B in FY2026, compounding +26.1%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap ₹1.1T (≈ $11.9B) Large · P/E ratio 49.4 · P/S ratio 8.85 · EPS (TTM) ₹82.21 · Dividend yield 1.3% · Net margin 18.7% · Return on equity 29.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 23.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 86 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at −33%, CUMMINSIND screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear₹1,740Fair Value ₹2,710Bull₹4,091
Price ₹4,059 · Downside -33.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹17.30 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.8% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+17.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+15.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.27.3% vs 12.4%, picking up
Profit margin 2005 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 20%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+32.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+15.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +26.8% a year for the price and +11.0% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Strong margins and zero debt support pricing power and governance, yet limited signals on human capital innovation and insider activity keep the overall moat only moderate.
Main risk: Chinese manufacturers with scale, cost advantages and government support could capture share in engines and power equipment from Cummins India, pressuring prices and margins.
Bull case: By accelerating investments in battery-electric, hydrogen and fuel-agnostic systems Cummins India could differentiate its offerings and retain customers seeking advanced low-carbon solutions.
Bear case: If Chinese competitors expand aggressively with lower-cost alternatives Cummins India might lose significant share in industrial and power generation segments eroding its aftermarket strengths.
Cummins India is accelerating investments in battery-electric systems, fuel blending and hydrogen engines to secure growth beyond 2030 while countering intensifying Chinese competition in industrial power. Our models view the shares as overvalued even as the company builds on its data-centre and aftermarket strengths. Will the shift to these newer technologies generate enough additional returns to ease valuation concerns, or will commodity cost pressures and rivals cap the gains?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 807 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score77 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−33.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)29.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets20.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)18.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)20.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)17.9% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.3% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)49.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B13.22× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)8.85× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow59.4× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA39.8× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)90· sector 31
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)26· sector 29
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cummins India Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CUMMINSIND
Frequently asked questions
Is Cummins India Limited (CUMMINSIND) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹2,710 versus a price of ₹4,059, about 33% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CUMMINSIND?
Our model-based fair value for Cummins India Limited is ₹2,710 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹4,059.
What is the quality score of CUMMINSIND?
Cummins India Limited has a Quality Score of 77/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cummins India Limited (CUMMINSIND)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹2,710 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹1,740, optimistic scenario ₹4,091. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cummins India Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹2,710, about 33% lower versus a price of ₹4,059 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹1,740, optimistic scenario ₹4,091. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cummins India Limited (CUMMINSIND)?
Cummins India Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹127B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does Cummins India Limited pay a dividend?
Cummins India Limited currently shows a dividend yield of 1.32% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Cummins India Limited (CUMMINSIND)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Cummins India Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +32.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +22.7 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CUMMINSIND use?
Our models discount Cummins India Limited at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.53, country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Cummins India Limited that is +32.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Cummins India Limited (CUMMINSIND) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Cummins India Limited grew +22.7 % a year. The price currently implies +32.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Cummins India Limited (CUMMINSIND) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Cummins India Limited (+32.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Cummins India Limited (CUMMINSIND)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.68 %: that much free cash flow Cummins India Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Cummins India Limited (CUMMINSIND)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cummins India Limited it is ₹2,710 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of ₹4,059. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Cummins India Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, CUMMINSIND trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹4,059, fair value ₹2,710, a gap of about −33% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CUMMINSIND?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹4,059); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹2,710). For Cummins India Limited the two are ₹1,349 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cummins India Limited worth?
The market values Cummins India Limited at about ₹1.1T (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is ₹4,059; our models calculate a fair value of ₹2,710 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CUMMINSIND?
Our models span a range for Cummins India Limited: cautious scenario ₹1,740, base ₹2,710, optimistic ₹4,091 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price ₹4,059). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CUMMINSIND?
Cummins India Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 49.4 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹2,710 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 36.3. Other multiples: P/B 13.2, P/S 8.8, EV/EBITDA 39.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cummins India Limited (CUMMINSIND)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cummins India Limited (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 29.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 77/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CUMMINSIND from its 52-week high?
Cummins India Limited trades at ₹4,059, about 32% below its 52-week high of ₹5,978 and 5% above the low of ₹3,878 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹2,710 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cummins India Limited?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value SIE, GE Vernova Inc, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cummins India Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price ₹4,059, calculated fair value ₹2,710 (−33%), Quality Score 77/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CUMMINSIND calculated?
We run Cummins India Limited through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹2,710, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Cummins India Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cummins India Limited (CUMMINSIND)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was ₹4,059. Our model-based fair value is ₹2,710, about 33% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cummins India Limited right now?
A high-quality business (quality 77/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. A fairly wide model range (₹1,740 to ₹4,091) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Cummins India Limited (CUMMINSIND) come from?
Earnings per share at Cummins India Limited grew +11.7 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.7 %, EBIT margin −1.0 %, tax rate −0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +4.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Cummins India Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Cummins India Limited (CUMMINSIND)?
The market capitalisation of Cummins India Limited is ₹1.1T (≈ $11.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cummins India Limited (CUMMINSIND)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cummins India Limited is 8.85 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cummins India Limited (CUMMINSIND)?
Earnings per share at Cummins India Limited are ₹82.21 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 49.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Cummins India Limited (CUMMINSIND)?
The dividend yield of Cummins India Limited is 1.3% (payout 65.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Cummins India Limited (CUMMINSIND)?
The net margin of Cummins India Limited is 18.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cummins India Limited (CUMMINSIND)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cummins India Limited is 29.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cummins India Limited (CUMMINSIND)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cummins India Limited is 23.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cummins India Limited (CUMMINSIND)?
The operating margin of Cummins India Limited is 20.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cummins India Limited (CUMMINSIND)?
Revenue at Cummins India Limited is growing +17.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cummins India Limited (CUMMINSIND)?
Earnings per share at Cummins India Limited are growing +0.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Cummins India Limited (CUMMINSIND) hold?
Cummins India Limited holds more cash than debt, ₹23.4B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 3, 2026