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Ducommun Incorporated (DCO) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Ducommun Incorporated stock $27.41, price $135, that is 79.7% below the price, quality 39 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Industrials US

DI Ducommun Incorporated logo Thin data Nov 6, 2026

Ducommun Incorporated

DCO · US
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 80% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Profit last quarter +56% vs. a year ago.
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +5.6 %/yr in USD)
Insiders sold $3.1M (6M)
Fair value $27.41 · Strongly overvalued (−79.7%)
Quality 39/100
Loss-making · -2.5% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (3/12)
Narrow moat 24/100 · thin data
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$206.98 $39.66 Fair Value $27.41 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $39.66 – $206.98 · fair‑value band $21.62 – $32.34 · the $135.25 price screens above the $27.41 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.

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Company profile

Ducommun Incorporated provides engineering and manufacturing services for products and applications used in the aerospace and defense, industrial, medical, and other industries in the United States. It operates through two segments, Electronic Systems and Structural Systems.

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The Electronic Systems segment provides cable assemblies and interconnect systems; printed circuit board assemblies; electronic, electromechanical, and mechanical components and assemblies, as well as lightning diversion systems; and radar enclosures, aircraft avionics racks, shipboard communications and control enclosures, wire harnesses, interconnect systems, lightning diversion strips, surge suppressors, conformal shields, and other assemblies.

This segment also supplies engineered products, including illuminated pushbutton switches and panels for aviation and test systems; microwave and millimeter switches and filters for radio frequency systems and test instrumentation; and motors and resolvers for motion control, as well as provides engineering services for aerospace system design, development, integration, and testing service.

The Structural Systems segment designs, engineers, and manufactures complex contoured aerostructure components assemblies and supplies, including composite and metal bonded structures, precision profile extrusions, extruded assemblies, ammunition handling systems, seals, and aerodynamic systems; designs, engineers, and manufactures contoured aluminum, titanium, and Inconel aero structure components; structural assembly products, such as winglets, engine components, fuselage structural panels; aircraft wing spoilers, fuselage skins, rotor blades, flight control surfaces, engine nacelle components, feed and eject chutes, storage magazines, custom gun mounts.

It serves commercial aircraft, military fixed-wing aircraft, military and commercial rotary-wing aircraft, and space programs. The company was founded in 1849 and is headquartered in Costa Mesa, California.

Stock analysis

Ducommun Incorporated (DCO) currently trades at $135.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $27.41, 80% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $63.19 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $135.25 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $6.75, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $21.62 (bear) to $32.34 (bull), the price of $135.25 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Ducommun Incorporated reported revenue of $825M in FY2025 versus $645M in FY2021, a compound +6.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$37.4M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $2.1B Mid · P/E ex one-offs 36.1 · P/S ratio 2.31 · EPS (TTM) $3.34 · Net margin −4.5% · Return on equity −3.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.5% (5-year average) · Operating margin 12.6%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 24 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 57% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −80%, DCO screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($6.75 to $72.62). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $21.62 Fair Value $27.41 Bull $32.34
Price $135.25 · Downside -79.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.86 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EPV $21.62 $27.41 $32.34 74
ROIC Compounder $21.62 $27.41 $32.34 72
EV/EBITDA $49.49 $72.62 $95.75 66
All 6 models by family
Earnings-Based
EPV $21.62 $27.41 $32.34 74
Multiples
EV/EBIT $42.42 $63.19 $83.97 65
EV/EBITDA $49.49 $72.62 $95.75 66
EV/Revenue $24.58 $43.64 $62.70 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $4.45 $6.75 $8.43 54
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder $21.62 $27.41 $32.34 72

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 39/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 18
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 44
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 10
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 61
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 78
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 46
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 49
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 63
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 42
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 5 officers or directors sold shares worth $3.1M and none bought.

  • SaleStephen G OswaldChairman, President & CEO, Director2× since Aug 12, 2026: 8,266 shares, avg. $202.00$1.7MAug 18, 2026
  • SaleLaureen S. GonzalezV.P., CHRO589 shares at $151.99$89,522May 28, 2026
  • SaleSuman B. MookerjiSr. V.P., C.F.O.3× since Mar 4, 2026: 24,014 shares, avg. $134.14$3.2MMay 20, 2026
  • SaleRajiv A. TataV.P., G.C. & Corp. Secretary1,612 shares at $145.00$233,740May 20, 2026
  • SaleJerry L RedondoS.V.P., Elec. & Struc. Systems3× since Nov 10, 2025: 9,276 shares, avg. $130.70$1.2MMay 14, 2026
  • SaleRichard A BaldridgeDirector10,440 shares at $130.83$1.4MMar 10, 2026

Plus 17 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 24/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.2% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
7.2% (2020) → 8.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

DCO screens overvalued: fair value 80% below the price. Compare with General Electric Company →

Note from the team Oct 11, 2026
AI conclusion: Ducommun's move toward higher-margin engineered products and aftermarket services offers a potential strength, yet ongoing losses and weak returns metrics remain its main limitation.
Main risk: Integration challenges together with competition in aerospace could constrain returns from the shift to higher-margin products and services.
Ducommun is shifting more revenue toward higher-margin engineered products and aftermarket services through its Vision 2032 roadmap while missile programs add near-term defense momentum. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Will the margin expansion from this mix change deliver lasting improvement or will integration challenges and competition in aerospace keep returns constrained?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 238 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −79.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −3.2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −2.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 12.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 11.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.45× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper

P/B 3.18× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 2.43× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 18.4× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.31× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)59 · sector 65
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)77 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 19

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Weapons Defense

Similar stocks

10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Safran SA SAF €295.50 €327.36 +11% vs DCO
Honeywell Aerospace Inc HONA $152.92 $168.21 +10% vs DCO
TransDigm Group TDG $1,197 $1,308 +9% vs DCO
Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT $567.08 $439.21 −23% vs DCO
General Dynamics Corporation GD $354.06 $274.19 −23% vs DCO
Northrop Grumman Corporation NOC $525.01 $382.98 −27% vs DCO
Airbus SE AIR €196.40 €112.14 −43% vs DCO
RTX Corporation RTX $189.53 $88.19 −53% vs DCO
General Electric Company GE $323.24 $92.26 −71% vs DCO
Howmet Aerospace Inc HWM $205.81 $52.65 −74% vs DCO

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Ducommun Incorporated: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ducommun Incorporated Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DCO

Frequently asked questions

Is Ducommun Incorporated (DCO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $27.41 versus a price of $135.25, about 80% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DCO?
Our model-based fair value for Ducommun Incorporated is $27.41 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $135.25.
What is the quality score of DCO?
Ducommun Incorporated has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ducommun Incorporated (DCO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $27.41 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $21.62, optimistic scenario $32.34. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ducommun Incorporated stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $27.41, about 80% lower versus a price of $135.25 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $21.62, optimistic scenario $32.34. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ducommun Incorporated (DCO)?
Ducommun Incorporated reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $865M (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Ducommun Incorporated (DCO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ducommun Incorporated it is $27.41 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $135.25. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Ducommun Incorporated stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, DCO trades above its calculated fair value: price $135.25, fair value $27.41, a gap of about −80% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DCO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($135.25); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($27.41). For Ducommun Incorporated the two are $107.84 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ducommun Incorporated worth?
The market values Ducommun Incorporated at about $2.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $135.25; our models calculate a fair value of $27.41 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DCO?
Our models span a range for Ducommun Incorporated: cautious scenario $21.62, base $27.41, optimistic $32.34 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $135.25). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of DCO?
The PEG ratio of Ducommun Incorporated is 1.31 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ducommun Incorporated (DCO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ducommun Incorporated (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity −3.0%, debt of 0.45 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DCO from its 52-week high?
Ducommun Incorporated trades at $135.25, about 35% below its 52-week high of $206.98 and 57% above the low of $86.41 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $27.41 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ducommun Incorporated?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Safran SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ducommun Incorporated stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $135.25, calculated fair value $27.41 (−80%), Quality Score 39/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DCO calculated?
We run Ducommun Incorporated through 6 models from 4 families: Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $27.41 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Ducommun Incorporated itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ducommun Incorporated (DCO)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $135.25. Our model-based fair value is $27.41, about 80% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ducommun Incorporated right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($32.34). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Ducommun Incorporated (DCO) come from?
Earnings per share at Ducommun Incorporated grew −2.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −0.9 %, EBIT margin −2.0 %, tax rate +2.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Ducommun Incorporated

How large is the market capitalisation of Ducommun Incorporated (DCO)?
The market capitalisation of Ducommun Incorporated is $2.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Ducommun Incorporated (DCO) excluding one-off items?
Excluding one-off items, the price-to-earnings ratio of Ducommun Incorporated is 36.1 (fiscal year 2025, the reported result was a loss, median at FY-end 21.7 (10 FY)).
What is the P/S ratio of Ducommun Incorporated (DCO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ducommun Incorporated is 2.31 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ducommun Incorporated (DCO)?
Earnings per share at Ducommun Incorporated are $3.34. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Ducommun Incorporated (DCO)?
The net margin of Ducommun Incorporated is −4.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ducommun Incorporated (DCO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ducommun Incorporated is −3.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ducommun Incorporated (DCO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ducommun Incorporated is 4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ducommun Incorporated (DCO)?
The operating margin of Ducommun Incorporated is 12.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ducommun Incorporated (DCO)?
Revenue at Ducommun Incorporated is growing +11.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ducommun Incorporated (DCO)?
Earnings per share at Ducommun Incorporated are growing +56.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Ducommun Incorporated (DCO) generate?
The free cash flow of Ducommun Incorporated is −$48.6M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Ducommun Incorporated (DCO) carry?
The net debt of Ducommun Incorporated is $301M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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