Ducommun Incorporated (DCO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Ducommun Incorporated $28.09, price $173, upside -83.7%, quality 40 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $28.09 · Strongly overvalued (−84%)
!Quality 40/100
!Expensive Growth(revenue 5y +5.6 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -3.4% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers(1/12)
!Narrow moat26/100
!Insider activity46/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $39.66 – $206.98 · fair‑value band $22.14 – $33.19 · the $172.51 price screens above the $28.09 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Ducommun Incorporated provides engineering and manufacturing services for products and applications used in the aerospace and defense, industrial, medical, and other industries in the United States. It operates through two segments, Electronic Systems and Structural Systems.
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Ducommun Incorporated provides engineering and manufacturing services for products and applications used in the aerospace and defense, industrial, medical, and other industries in the United States. It operates through two segments, Electronic Systems and Structural Systems. The Electronic Systems segment provides cable assemblies and interconnect systems; printed circuit board assemblies; electronic, electromechanical, and mechanical components and assemblies, as well as lightning diversion systems; and radar enclosures, aircraft avionics racks, shipboard communications and control enclosures, wire harnesses, interconnect systems, lightning diversion strips, surge suppressors, conformal shields, and other assemblies. This segment also supplies engineered products, including illuminated pushbutton switches and panels for aviation and test systems; microwave and millimeter switches and filters for radio frequency systems and test instrumentation; and motors and resolvers for motion control, as well as provides engineering services for aerospace system design, development, integration, and testing service. The Structural Systems segment designs, engineers, and manufactures complex contoured aerostructure components assemblies and supplies, including composite and metal bonded structures, precision profile extrusions, extruded assemblies, ammunition handling systems, seals, and aerodynamic systems; designs, engineers, and manufactures contoured aluminum, titanium, and Inconel aero structure components; structural assembly products, such as winglets, engine components, fuselage structural panels; aircraft wing spoilers, fuselage skins, rotor blades, flight control surfaces, engine nacelle components, feed and eject chutes, storage magazines, custom gun mounts. It serves commercial aircraft, military fixed-wing aircraft, military and commercial rotary-wing aircraft, and space programs. The company was founded in 1849 and is headquartered in Costa Mesa, California.
Stock analysis
Ducommun Incorporated (DCO) currently trades at $172.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $28.09, implying the stock looks roughly 514.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $66.37 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $172.51 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $29.41, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $22.14 (bear) to $33.19 (bull), the price of $172.51 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Ducommun Incorporated reported revenue of $825M in FY2025 versus $645M in FY2021, a compound +6.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$37.4M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $2.6B · P/S ratio 3.00 · EPS (TTM) $−1.73 · Net margin −4.5% · Return on equity −4.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.5% · Operating margin 7.5% · Revenue (TTM) $841M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 100% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −84%, DCO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $22.14Fair Value $28.09Bull $33.19
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.24/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.2% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.7%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
7.2% (2020) → 8.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 228 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−84% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)−3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.45× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
P/B3.89× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)3.06× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA24.0× · Pricier than median
PEG3.34× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)43· sector 47
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 38
HEALTH (low debt)77· sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 17
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ducommun Incorporated Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DCO
Frequently asked questions
Is Ducommun Incorporated (DCO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $28.09 versus a price of $172.51, about −84% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DCO?
Our model-based fair value for Ducommun Incorporated is $28.09 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $172.51.
What is the quality score of DCO?
Ducommun Incorporated has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ducommun Incorporated (DCO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $28.09 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $22.14, optimistic scenario $33.19. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ducommun Incorporated stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $28.09, about −84% upside versus a price of $172.51 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $22.14, optimistic scenario $33.19. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ducommun Incorporated (DCO)?
Ducommun Incorporated reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $841M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Ducommun Incorporated (DCO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ducommun Incorporated it is $28.09 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $172.51. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ducommun Incorporated stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, DCO trades above its calculated fair value: price $172.51, fair value $28.09, a gap of about −84% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DCO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($172.51); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($28.09). For Ducommun Incorporated the two are $144.42 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ducommun Incorporated worth?
The market values Ducommun Incorporated at about $2.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $172.51; our models calculate a fair value of $28.09 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DCO?
Our models span a range for Ducommun Incorporated: cautious scenario $22.14, base $28.09, optimistic $33.19 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $172.51). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of DCO?
The PEG ratio of Ducommun Incorporated is 3.34 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ducommun Incorporated (DCO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ducommun Incorporated (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −4.2%, debt of 0.45 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DCO from its 52-week high?
Ducommun Incorporated trades at $172.51, about 17% below its 52-week high of $206.98 and 100% above the low of $86.41 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $28.09 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ducommun Incorporated?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Safran SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ducommun Incorporated stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $172.51, calculated fair value $28.09 (−84%), Quality Score 40/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DCO calculated?
We run Ducommun Incorporated through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $28.09, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Ducommun Incorporated itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ducommun Incorporated (DCO)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $172.51. Our model-based fair value is $28.09, about −84% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ducommun Incorporated right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($33.19). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Ducommun Incorporated (DCO) come from?
Earnings per share at Ducommun Incorporated grew −2.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −0.9 %, EBIT margin −2.0 %, tax rate +2.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Ducommun Incorporated
How large is the market capitalisation of Ducommun Incorporated (DCO)?
The market capitalisation of Ducommun Incorporated is $2.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ducommun Incorporated (DCO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ducommun Incorporated is 3.00 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ducommun Incorporated (DCO)?
Earnings per share at Ducommun Incorporated are $−1.73. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Ducommun Incorporated (DCO)?
The net margin of Ducommun Incorporated is −4.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ducommun Incorporated (DCO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ducommun Incorporated is −4.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ducommun Incorporated (DCO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ducommun Incorporated is 4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ducommun Incorporated (DCO)?
The operating margin of Ducommun Incorporated is 7.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ducommun Incorporated (DCO)?
Revenue at Ducommun Incorporated is growing +8.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ducommun Incorporated (DCO)?
Earnings per share at Ducommun Incorporated are growing +611% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Ducommun Incorporated (DCO) generate?
The free cash flow of Ducommun Incorporated is −$48.6M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Ducommun Incorporated (DCO) carry?
The net debt of Ducommun Incorporated is $301M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026