Dunelm Group PLC (DNLM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Dunelm Group PLC stock £16.79, price £9.09, upside +84.8%, quality 75 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £4.82 – £11.19 · fair‑value band £11.30 – £21.21 · the £9.09 price screens below the £16.79 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Dunelm Group plc engages in the retail of homewares in the United Kingdom.
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The company offers furniture and beds products, which include bedroom, living room, dining room, and other furniture, as well as bed and mattresses, and sofas and armchairs; bedding products comprising bed linen, dorma, baby and kid's bedding, duvets, pillows, and protectors; curtains; rugs; and venetian, roller, roman, vertical, and made to measure blinds.
It also offers range of home decor products, such as wall art and décor, mirrors, clocks, ornaments, pictures and frames, candle and home fragrance, flower and plants, vases, decorative trays and bowls, kid's decor, coffee table books, plant pots, cushions, throws, draught excluders, fireplace extras, and bean bags, as well as housewarming, engagement, personalised, anniversary, wedding gifts, and gift cards; and lighting products, including ceiling lights, lamp shades, table lamps, floor lamps, wall lights, chandeliers, led lighting, bathroom lighting, outdoor lighting, kids lighting, string lights, lamp bases, picture lights, and cabinet lights, as well as light bulbs, light switches, pendant flex cables, electrical and wiring accessories.
In addition, the company provides kitchen and utility products comprising cooking, dining, electrical, utility, and pet products; bathroom accessories; storage products, such as travel and luggage, home, clothes and shoe, storage furniture, and food storage; kids bedroom, furniture, nursery, and accessories products; and Christmas products, including trees, decoration, and gifts; and loungewear's, meal prepping's, and winter laundry products.
Further, it offers wallpaper, paint, DIY and upcycling, and decorating tools and supplies. It operates through a network of stores, as well as sells its products through an online store. The company was founded in 1979 and is based in Syston, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Dunelm Group PLC (DNLM) currently trades at £9.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £16.79, implying the stock looks roughly 46% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of £17.88 per share, and 18 of the 26 models we run sit above the £9.09 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at £5.57, and 8 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: £11.30 (bear) to £21.21 (bull), the price of £9.09 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Dunelm Group PLC reported revenue of £1.8B in FY2026 versus £1.6B in FY2022, a compound +3.7%/yr. Reported net income was £156M in FY2026, compounding −2.4%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap £1.8B Mid · P/E ratio 11.8 · P/S ratio 0.99 · EPS (TTM) £0.7712 · Dividend yield 5.0% · Net margin 8.5% · Return on equity 116% · Return on assets (EBIT) 29.8% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 69 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at 85%, DNLM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear£11.30Fair Value £16.79Bull£21.21
Price £9.09 · Upside +84.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.1139 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.77/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.6% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4.2% vs 5.0%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 12%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−3.5%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −5.7% a year for the price and +1.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (76 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Retail · 203 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score75 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+86.7% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)116.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets20.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)8.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)11.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)2.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)5.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.78× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)11.8× · Cheaper than median
P/B12.21× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)0.99× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)8.0× · Cheaper than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Dunelm Group PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DNLM
Frequently asked questions
Is Dunelm Group PLC (DNLM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £16.79 versus a price of £9.09, about +85% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of DNLM?
Our model-based fair value for Dunelm Group PLC is £16.79 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £9.09.
What is the quality score of DNLM?
Dunelm Group PLC has a Quality Score of 75/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Dunelm Group PLC (DNLM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £16.79 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario £11.30, optimistic scenario £21.21. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Dunelm Group PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £16.79, about +85% upside versus a price of £9.09 (undervalued). Cautious scenario £11.30, optimistic scenario £21.21. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Dunelm Group PLC (DNLM)?
Dunelm Group PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £1.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Dunelm Group PLC pay a dividend?
Dunelm Group PLC currently shows a dividend yield of 5.01% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Dunelm Group PLC (DNLM) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Dunelm Group PLC pays a dividend of £0.455 per share a year, a dividend yield of 5.0%. The last ex-dividend date was Oct 22, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2007. The payout ratio is 59.1% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.48 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Dunelm Group PLC (DNLM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Dunelm Group PLC would have to grow free cash flow by -3.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.4 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DNLM use?
Our models discount Dunelm Group PLC at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.03, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Dunelm Group PLC that is -3.5 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Dunelm Group PLC (DNLM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Dunelm Group PLC grew +6.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -3.5 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Dunelm Group PLC (DNLM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Dunelm Group PLC (-3.5 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Dunelm Group PLC (DNLM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.43 %: that much free cash flow Dunelm Group PLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Dunelm Group PLC (DNLM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Dunelm Group PLC it is £16.79 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of £9.09. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Dunelm Group PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, DNLM trades below its calculated fair value: price £9.09, fair value £16.79, a gap of about +85% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DNLM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£9.09); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£16.79). For Dunelm Group PLC the two are £7.71 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Dunelm Group PLC worth?
The market values Dunelm Group PLC at about £1.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is £9.09; our models calculate a fair value of £16.79 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DNLM?
Our models span a range for Dunelm Group PLC: cautious scenario £11.30, base £16.79, optimistic £21.21 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price £9.09). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DNLM?
Dunelm Group PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.8 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £16.79 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.9, P/B 12.2, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 7.5.
What is the PEG ratio of DNLM?
The PEG ratio of Dunelm Group PLC is 1.95 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Dunelm Group PLC (DNLM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Dunelm Group PLC (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 116.4%, debt of 0.78 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 75/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DNLM from its 52-week high?
Dunelm Group PLC trades at £9.09, about 16% below its 52-week high of £10.81 and 31% above the low of £6.92 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £16.79 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Dunelm Group PLC?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc, Williams-Sonoma, Inc, Ulta Beauty, Inc, Casey's General Stores, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Dunelm Group PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price £9.09, calculated fair value £16.79 (+85%), Quality Score 75/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DNLM calculated?
We run Dunelm Group PLC through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of £16.79 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Dunelm Group PLC currently trades 46% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Dunelm Group PLC (DNLM)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was £9.09. Our model-based fair value is £16.79, about +85% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Dunelm Group PLC right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (75/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case (£11.30). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range (£11.30 to £21.21) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Dunelm Group PLC (DNLM) come from?
Earnings per share at Dunelm Group PLC grew +6.1 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.9 %, EBIT margin −1.0 %, tax rate −0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Dunelm Group PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Dunelm Group PLC (DNLM)?
The market capitalisation of Dunelm Group PLC is £1.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Dunelm Group PLC (DNLM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Dunelm Group PLC is 0.99 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Dunelm Group PLC (DNLM)?
Earnings per share at Dunelm Group PLC are £0.7712 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Dunelm Group PLC (DNLM)?
The dividend yield of Dunelm Group PLC is 5.0% (payout 59.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Dunelm Group PLC (DNLM)?
The net margin of Dunelm Group PLC is 8.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Dunelm Group PLC (DNLM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Dunelm Group PLC is 116% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Dunelm Group PLC (DNLM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Dunelm Group PLC is 29.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Dunelm Group PLC (DNLM)?
The operating margin of Dunelm Group PLC is 11.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Dunelm Group PLC (DNLM)?
Revenue at Dunelm Group PLC is growing +2.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Dunelm Group PLC (DNLM)?
Earnings per share at Dunelm Group PLC are growing +10.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Dunelm Group PLC (DNLM) carry?
The net debt of Dunelm Group PLC is £362M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 1.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026