Dunelm Group (DNLM) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · GB · Market cap 1.7B GBX

A solid business, screening 87% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

• The rarer combination: high quality (71/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
• The price is below even our cautious bear case (£10.46). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
• A fairly wide model range (£10.46 to £20.96) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range £4.87 – £11.31 · fair‑value band £10.46 – £20.96 · the £8.76 price screens below the £16.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

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Analysis

Dunelm Group (DNLM) currently trades at £8.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £16.42, implying the stock looks roughly 87.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Dunelm Group generated revenue of £1.8B at a net margin of 8.3%. Revenue grew 3.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 86.1%. Net debt stands at £348M. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026

Our scenario range runs from £10.46 (bear case) to £20.96 (bull case); at £8.76, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -24% fair-value upside, at 87%, DNLM screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: DCF Models (£16.00) versus Asset-Based (£0.3900). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Dunelm Group plc engages in the retail of homewares in the United Kingdom. The company offers furniture and beds products, which include bedroom, living room, dining room, and other furniture, as well as bed and mattresses, and sofas and armchairs; bedding products comprising bed linen, dorma, baby and kid's bedding, duvets, pillows, and protectors; …

Full company description

Dunelm Group plc engages in the retail of homewares in the United Kingdom. The company offers furniture and beds products, which include bedroom, living room, dining room, and other furniture, as well as bed and mattresses, and sofas and armchairs; bedding products comprising bed linen, dorma, baby and kid's bedding, duvets, pillows, and protectors; curtains; rugs; and venetian, roller, roman, vertical, and made to measure blinds. It also offers range of home decor products, such as wall art and décor, mirrors, clocks, ornaments, pictures and frames, candle and home fragrance, flower and plants, vases, decorative trays and bowls, kid's decor, coffee table books, plant pots, cushions, throws, draught excluders, fireplace extras, and bean bags, as well as housewarming, engagement, personalised, anniversary, wedding gifts, and gift cards; and lighting products, including ceiling lights, lamp shades, table lamps, floor lamps, wall lights, chandeliers, led lighting, bathroom lighting, outdoor lighting, kids lighting, string lights, lamp bases, picture lights, and cabinet lights, as well as light bulbs, light switches, pendant flex cables, electrical and wiring accessories. In addition, the company provides kitchen and utility products comprising cooking, dining, electrical, utility, and pet products; bathroom accessories; storage products, such as travel and luggage, home, clothes and shoe, storage furniture, and food storage; kids bedroom, furniture, nursery, and accessories products; and Christmas products, including trees, decoration, and gifts; and loungewear's, meal prepping's, and winter laundry products. Further, it offers wallpaper, paint, DIY and upcycling, and decorating tools and supplies. It operates through a network of stores, as well as sells its products through an online store. The company was founded in 1979 and is based in Syston, the United Kingdom.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Dunelm Group reported revenue of £1.8B in FY2025 versus £1.3B in FY2021, a compound +7.3%/yr. Reported net income was £156M in FY2025, compounding +4.9%/yr from FY2021.

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Peer Group

Specialty Retail · 221 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.