Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Darden Restaurants Inc stock $176, price $229, that is 23.1% below the price, quality 72 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $96.30 – $230.61 · fair‑value band $118.97 – $232.66 · the $228.67 price screens above the $175.82 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Darden Restaurants, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates full-service restaurants in the United States and Canada.
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The company operates under Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse, Cheddar's Scratch Kitchen, Chuy's, Yard House, Ruth's Chris Steak House, The Capital Grille, Seasons 52, Eddie V's Prime Seafood, Bahama Breeze, The Capital Burger, Darden and Darden Restaurants brand names.
Darden Restaurants, Inc. was founded in 1938 and is based in Orlando, Florida.
Stock analysis
Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI) currently trades at $228.67, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $175.82, 23% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $201.14 per share, and 2 of the 24 models we run sit above the $228.67 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $60.69, and 22 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $118.97 (bear) to $232.66 (bull), the price of $228.67 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Darden Restaurants Inc reported revenue of $13.2B in FY2026 versus $9.6B in FY2022, a compound +8.2%/yr. Reported net income was $1.2B in FY2026, compounding +6.1%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $26.3B Large · P/E ratio 22.2 · P/S ratio 1.97 · EPS (TTM) $10.30 · Dividend yield 2.7% · Net margin 8.9% · Return on equity 55.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 64 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −33% fair-value upside, at −23%, DRI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$118.97Fair Value $175.82Bull$232.66
Price $228.67 · Downside -23.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 5 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.82 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 7 officers or directors sold shares worth $16.0M and none bought.
SaleMelvin John MartinGroup President3× since Jan 6, 2026: 8,500 shares, avg. $197.95$1.7MOct 6, 2026
SaleJohn W. WilkersonPresident, Olive Garden2× since Jan 16, 2026: 11,122 shares, avg. $209.28$2.3MAug 5, 2026
SaleLaura B WilliamsonPresident, LongHorn Steakhouse1,553 shares at $204.48$317,561Jul 31, 2026
SaleSarah H. KingSVP, Chief People Officer2× since Jan 22, 2026: 8,978 shares, avg. $208.48$1.9MJul 29, 2026
SaleSusan M. ConnellySVP, Chief Comm & PA Officer3× since Jan 14, 2026: 14,791 shares, avg. $206.71$3.1MJul 29, 2026
SaleRajesh VennamSVP, CFO2× since Jan 15, 2026: 15,252 shares, avg. $211.83$3.2MJul 29, 2026
SaleRicardo CardenasPresident and CEO, Director39,134 shares at $209.07$8.2MJul 28, 2026
SaleDouglas J. MilanesSVP, Chief Supply Chain Ofcr3,620 shares at $202.17$731,855Apr 17, 2026
SaleLindsay L. KorenSVP General Counsel300 shares at $194.32$58,296Apr 7, 2026
SaleWilliam S SimonDirector2,333 shares at $203.96$475,839Mar 23, 2026
Plus 2 more entries from the last 12 months.
Plus 22 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.93/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.7% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+19.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+16.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.7%
Per share before 2015divided by the spin-off factor 1.1187
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11.5% vs 10.7%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 12%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.6% a year for the price and +2.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Strong return on equity and cash flow stand out positively, yet thin evidence on moat factors leaves the business exposed in a competitive restaurant sector.
Main risk: Fast-casual chains such as Chipotle and delivery platforms could draw customers away from Darden's full-service restaurants, reducing traffic and pressuring margins at brands like Olive Garden.
Bull case: Darden could accelerate throughput improvements and leverage its stronger brands like LongHorn to capture share from weaker casual-dining peers while using AI only for back-of-house efficiency.
Bear case: Persistent traffic losses to faster alternatives combined with rising labor costs from lawsuits could squeeze margins and slow expansion across the portfolio.
Darden's brands show uneven momentum, with LongHorn Steakhouse lifting same-restaurant sales while Olive Garden traffic remains soft. Rising food and labor costs have squeezed margins despite 5 percent revenue growth in the latest quarter. Will the stronger concepts keep offsetting these pressures, or will they increasingly limit overall results?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 202 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−23.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)55.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets9.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)8.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)9.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)5.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.76× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)22.2× · Pricier than median
P/B11.93× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)1.97× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)23.5× · Pricier than median
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Is Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $175.82 versus a price of $228.67, about 23% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DRI?
Our model-based fair value for Darden Restaurants Inc is $175.82 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $228.67.
What is the quality score of DRI?
Darden Restaurants Inc has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $175.82 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $118.97, optimistic scenario $232.66. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Darden Restaurants Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $175.82, about 23% lower versus a price of $228.67 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $118.97, optimistic scenario $232.66. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI)?
Darden Restaurants Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $13.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Darden Restaurants Inc pay a dividend?
Darden Restaurants Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 2.68% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Darden Restaurants Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +10.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.9 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DRI use?
Our models discount Darden Restaurants Inc at 8.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.62, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Darden Restaurants Inc that is +10.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Darden Restaurants Inc grew +12.9 % a year. The price currently implies +10.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Darden Restaurants Inc (+10.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.25 %: that much free cash flow Darden Restaurants Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Darden Restaurants Inc it is $175.82 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $228.67. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Darden Restaurants Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, DRI trades above its calculated fair value: price $228.67, fair value $175.82, a gap of about −23% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DRI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($228.67); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($175.82). For Darden Restaurants Inc the two are $52.85 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Darden Restaurants Inc worth?
The market values Darden Restaurants Inc at about $26.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $228.67; our models calculate a fair value of $175.82 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DRI?
Our models span a range for Darden Restaurants Inc: cautious scenario $118.97, base $175.82, optimistic $232.66 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $228.67). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DRI?
Darden Restaurants Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.2 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $175.82 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings, 4 of the years ex one-offs: 21.4. Other multiples: PEG 1.9, P/B 11.9, P/S 2.0, EV/EBITDA 13.0.
What is the PEG ratio of DRI?
The PEG ratio of Darden Restaurants Inc is 1.90 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Darden Restaurants Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 55.4%, debt of 0.76 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 72/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DRI from its 52-week high?
Darden Restaurants Inc trades at $228.67, about 1% below its 52-week high of $230.61 and 39% above the low of $164.00 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $175.82 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Darden Restaurants Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Yum! Brands, Inc, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Darden Restaurants Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $228.67, calculated fair value $175.82 (−23%), Quality Score 72/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DRI calculated?
We run Darden Restaurants Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $175.82, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Darden Restaurants Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $228.67. Our model-based fair value is $175.82, about 23% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Darden Restaurants Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (72/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($118.97 to $232.66) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI) come from?
Earnings per share at Darden Restaurants Inc grew +9.6 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.5 %, EBIT margin +4.2 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Darden Restaurants Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI)?
The market capitalisation of Darden Restaurants Inc is $26.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Darden Restaurants Inc is 1.97 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI)?
Earnings per share at Darden Restaurants Inc are $10.30 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI)?
The dividend yield of Darden Restaurants Inc is 2.7% (payout 59.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI)?
The net margin of Darden Restaurants Inc is 8.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Darden Restaurants Inc is 55.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Darden Restaurants Inc is 11.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI)?
The operating margin of Darden Restaurants Inc is 9.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI)?
Revenue at Darden Restaurants Inc is growing +5.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI)?
Earnings per share at Darden Restaurants Inc are growing −6.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI) carry?
The net debt of Darden Restaurants Inc is $5.8B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 5.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026